Wimbledon: What's at Stake in the Rankings

I took a few minutes and took the top 50 of the ATP and WTA rankings and subtracted out the points from 2009 Wimbledon to give everyone an equal starting ground to try and see what the rankings will be like in 2 weeks when Wimbledon concludes.  I will try and keep the links updated and will probably comment on them if I post throughout the tournament.  To me, this is one of the fascinating things about tennis:  its ranking structure.

See my Google Doc here

A few notes on the format.  The virtual rank and virtual points refer to the players "current" ranking and points if the tournament were to end immediately.  So if you look at the spreadsheet after the conclusion of the 3rd round, the 32 players still in each draw in each will have 3rd round points allotted to them and their ranking updated.  Now obviously this is a bit incomplete because someone would have to win the tournament, but you get the point.  (If you don't, leave a comment and I'll try to explain better.)  The actual rank and points refer to the actual ATP and WTA ranking and points with 2009 Wimbledon still taken into account.  The 2009 points were the points earned by the players at 2009 Wimbledon and the 2010 points are the points earned to date in 2010 Wimbledon.  So now, all the players who did not withdraw have 5 points in that column for their 1st round status.  The virtual points are calculated by actual points minus 2009 points plus 2010 points.  The rank change column is the projected change in the post-Wimbledon rankings based on the results to date.

Other notes on the data:
-Once a player is eliminated, his/her ranking cannot increase past the virtual ranking because he/she cannot win any more points at Wimbledon.  However, players ranked below him/her that are still can possibly pass him/her if they keep winning.
-Players without many points to defend from 2009 can obviously move up the rankings quicker and it is harder for them to drop.
-No player currently outside the top 50 is taken into account, so players on the lower part of the rankings could plummet down even further (Tommy Haas and Sabine Lisicki come to mind)
-Points are as follows (ATP/WTA):
Champion:  2000/2000
Runner-up:  1200/1400
Semis:         720/900
Quarters:     360/500
4th Round:  180/280
3rd Round:  90/160
2nd Round:  45/100
1st Round:     5/5

Now, finally, some comments on the data:
-Rafael Nadal will still be #1 at the conclusion of Wimbledon since he had no points to defend from 2009.  In the virtual rankings he leads Federer by 2,220 pts
-Gilles Simon could enter the top 10 with a championship and absolute mayhem among higher seeds
-Andy Roddick will have to make the final avoid falling back below Del Potro.
-Injured players Stepanek, Karlovic, and Haas, will see their rankings plummet as the tournament goes on and they are unable to defend their points and other lower players leapfrog them.
-Early losses by the Williams sisters could allow even Francesca Schiavone to obtain the #1 ranking on the women's side.  All kidding aside, only Wozniacki and Jankovic really have a legitimate chance to steal the #1 spot.
-Because of her Roland Garros semifinal, Dementieva may not suffer in the rankings that much.  She will definitely drop to 6, but to go any lower Schiavone would need to make the 4th round, Clijsters the semis, or Radwanska or a lower at least the final.  That same optimism does not hold true for Safina, though she can at least play and try and defend her semifinal points.
-The women's field is not quite as deep as the men's, even Timea Bacsinszky (#39 WTA) could make the top 10 if absolute mayhem occurred.
-Melanie Oudin will be in danger of falling outside the top 50 with a 1st round loss.

Feel free to leave a comment on other tidbits you may see.  I will try and keep the spreadsheet up to date and comment more on it as the tournament progresses.