US Open: Men's Preview

Here is the secrettennisjunkie US Open preview for the men.  A month ago, we may have this tournament to be the most wide open slam in years, but with the play of Federer in Canada and Cincinatti, my thoughts at least having changed.  This is again Roger Federer's tournament to win.

Players I think can win:  Though not as strong a favorite as Nadal at the French, Roger Federer (SUI) is the favorite.  If he were to falter, I could see Andy Murray (GBR), Novak Djokovic (SRB), or Robin Soderling (SWE) winning.  Beyond them, it is a muddled mess.  Nadal, with his poor showing in Cincinatti, has not convinced me he can win this tournament.
Dark Horses:  Mardy Fish (USA), Marcos Baghdatis (CYP), Ernests Gulbis (LAT)
Former champions in the draw:  Hewitt (2001), Roddick (2003), Federer (2004-8)
Other slam winners in the draw:  Ferrero, Nadal, Djokovic
Former boys' champions in the draw:  Nalbandian (1998), Nieminen (1999), Roddick (2000), Gasquet (2002), Murray (2004), Sweeting (2005), Lojda (2006), Berankis (2007), Tomic (2009).  Much more success from these players on the senior level than those who won boys' Wimbledon.  Note:  Several of these players are currently in qualifying trying to make the main draw.

A brief word with my thoughts on the top 10:
1) Nadal - I think there is a good chance he gets upset early, and I don't think he's quite good enough to go the distance on this surface.
2) Federer - Favorite.  Hands down.
3) Djokovic - I think he has a shot, especially if he doesn't have to play Federer.
4) Murray - Probably a distant second favorite, but does he have what it takes to overcome Federer at a slam?
5) Soderling - He's got game but does he have what it takes to get over the hump and win a slam, beating world class players back-to-back-to-back?
6) Davydenko - I would be surprised to see him in the quarters.
7) Berdych - Probably good for a quarterfinal, then we'll see what happens.
8) Verdasco - same as Davydenko, where has he been since clay?
9) Roddick - Probably not consistent enough to win the whole thing, but he's a threat to go deep.
10) Ferrer - Quietly putting together a solid year, anything better than a quarterfinal would be a bonus.