Davis Cup Week 1: Preview

The 2011 Davis Cup gets going this weekend with eight world group ties plus numerous zonal group ties.  Here is my breakdown:

World Group
India at Serbia
Russia at Sweden
Kazakhstan at Czech Republic
Romania at Argentina
United States at Chile
Spain at Belgium
Germany at Croatia
France at Austria

I think these ties can basically be divided into 2 groups:  ties that should be close, possibly coming down to a 5th rubber, and ones where the outcome is not really in doubt.  There doesn't seem to be too much middle ground.

Expected Blowouts:  SRB over IND, ARG over ROU, USA over CHI, ESP over BEL.  You wonder if Djokovic would consider sitting out and resting after his Dubai win and leading up to Indian Wells and Miami.  I expect India could win the doubles but I'm not sure any other "losing" nation here wins a live rubber.

Close Ties:  SWE/RUS, CZE/KAZ, CRO/GER, AUT/FRA.  Russia will play without Youzhny and Davydenko but this tie still probably comes down to the doubles against the fighting Robin Soderling's.  Russia has some adequate teams and the Swedes do have some doubles specialists so it could be interesting.
The Czechs will be without Berdych which makes this interesting.  Can Golubev and Kukushkin work around Berdych and steal one on the road in their world group debut?
This tie could come down to how well Karlovic is able to play for Croatia (assuming he plays second singles and not the red hot Ivan Dodig).  You expect Cilic to get his and the Germans have decent but not great players.
In probably the best tie of the world group, France is missing out on Tsonga and Monfils but they are so deep so they still have a good chance at winning this.  Melzer is going to tough to beat in an airplane hangar on clay but he will probably have to win 3 ties to give Austria the win.  The Melzer/Knowle doubles combo is a good but Llodra/Benneteau could be better.  The doubles could decide this one although the French singles players are capable of beating Melzer.

There are surprisingly few blockbuster #1 singles matchups.  Most of these close ties feature one country with a top singles player but little with their opponents having 2 serviceable singles players.

Europe/Africa Zonal Group I
Poland at Israel (actually a 2nd round tie, winner gets promoted)
Finland at Slovenia (winner plays Italy)
Netherlands at Ukraine (winner plays South Africa)
Slovakia at Portugal (winner plays Switzerland)

I really like this UKR/FIN tie with Dolgopolov/Stakhovsky vs de Bakker/Haase, could be good stuff.  I'll give to Ukraine based on home court advantage and Alex's recent form.
I expect Nieminen to carry Finland through, and Portugal to survive being at home on clay with Machado and Gil.  POL/ISR is a tossup.

Europe/Africa Zonal Group II
Tunisia at Great Britain
Luxembourg at Ireland
Bulgaria at Belarus
Hungary at Cyprus
Bosnia at Morocco
Lithuania at Estonia
Monaco at Denmark
Latvia at Greece

Not going to make any predictions here but I noticed there are 6 players in the top 100 in this group:  Murray - GBR, Muller - LUX, Dimitrov - BUL, Baghdatis - CYP, Berankis - LTU, and Gulbis - LAT.  However, only 2 will make an appearance (Muller and Berankis).  Also of note here is Britain which you would hope could beat Tunisia at home, even without the younger Murray.

Americas Zonal Group I
Canada at Mexico (winner gets Ecuador)
Colombia at Uruguay (winner gets Brazil)

I expect Canada (with Raonic) and Colombia (Falla/Giraldo) to advance easily.

Americas Zonal Group II
Netherlands Antilles at Peru
Dominican Republic at El Salvador
Paraguay at Puerto Rico
Haiti at Venezuela

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group I
Taiwan at China (winner plays Australia)
Japan at Philippines
New Zealand at Uzbekistan

You have to like Taiwan (Lu), Japan (even without Nishikori), and Uzbekistan (Istomin) to advance.

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group II
Syria at South Korea
Pakistan at Hong Kong
Indonesia at Iran
Thailand at Pacific Oceania