French Open: Finals (The Streak Is Over!)

Our finals are set for the 2011 edition of the French Open, but that news is overshadowed by the fact that Novak Djokovic's streak is now tennis history.  He ends up 1 match (or walkover) short of John McEnroe's 42-0 and ends with 43 consecutive match wins leaving him 3 short of the Vilas record.  In the French Open semis, Roger Federer (remember him?) defeated Djokovic 7-6, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6.  Djokovic held set points in both the first and fourth sets but "vintage" Federer came through in the end and reminded us why he owns 16 slams.  I was very impressed by his last 3 serves (at 4-3, 5-3, and 6-5 in the breaker) were 2 aces and a service winner.  That is closing out a match!

So we have what we thought was a thing of the past:  A Roger-Rafa slam final, the first since the '09 Aussie Open.

Men's Singles 2011 French Open Final:  1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs 3) Roger Federer (SUI)

By now I'm sure we all know about the head to head, so I'll just link you it on the ATP site.  The overall is 16-8 in favor of Nadal, all of the matches but one coming in the final or semi of a tournament.  Nadal leads 5-2 in slam finals (6-2 in slams overall) and 11-2 on clay (4-0 at the French Open) with Federer's wins coming in '07 Hamburg and '09 Madrid.  Overall sets is 45-32 to Nadal and 27-12 on clay.

If Federer can keep up the same level that he played today against Djokovic, I think he is still the underdog but has a fighting chance.  He will definitely need to improve his 4/25 break point conversion rate.  Federer has nothing to lose so he should be able to come out relaxed and just play his game.  Nadal, though, has been rounding into form and survived a very tight 3-setter against Murray.  I'm going to say Nadal in 4 sets.

On the women's side, after the dust has settled, what do you know?  We still have the defending champion and a woman no one expected to be here but who will experience her second consecutive major final.

Women's Singles 2011 French Open Final:  5) Francesca Schiavone (ITA) vs 6) Na Li (CHN)

Li was actually one of Schiavone's victims on her way to title last year.  They have 2-2 head-to-head which I will detail here.

'07 Sydney R32 (hard):  Li 6-4, 7-5
'08 Beijing R32 (hard):  Schiavone 6-1, 7-6
'09 US Open R16 (hard):  Li 6-2, 6-3
'10 French Open R32 (clay):  Schiavone 6-4, 6-2

So they have met only on clay, which was of course last year, won easily by the Italian.  They have split 8 sets as every match has been in straight sets.  I'm not sure how much can be gleaned from those numbers though as all the matches except the clay occurred prior to both players breaking out last year (Aussie Open SF for Li followed up with final there this year, French Open title for Schiavone).

I really like Schiavone in this match to defend her title.  After her unexpected win last year, how she's backed it up with QF results at the US and Aussie Opens, and how she's managed to survive to play another final, how does she not win this?  I will give Li credit, as she did come through some of the bigger names in Azarenka, Sharapova, and Kvitova, but with the joy and the fight in Schiavone I'm not sure what Li can do.  In my opinion, Schiavone would have to play a poor match and Li and great one to win.  This is Schiavone's best surface and Li's worst and Schiavone is not a big hitter prone to error.  I will Schiavone in straight sets, one of them tight.

Oh yes, slam final stats:
-Nadal:  12th slam final (6th at the French), 9-2 record (5-0), last '10 US Open
-Federer:  23rd slam final (5th at the French), 16-6 record (1-3), last '10 Aussie Open
-Schiavone:  2nd slam final (2nd at the French), 1-0 record (1-0), last '10 French Open
-Li:  2nd slam final (1st at the French), 0-1 record, last '11 Aussie Open

Nadal needs to win to preserve his #1 ranking through Wimbledon, while Federer will be #3 regardless.  Li is currently at #5 and can get to #4 with a win.  Schiavone (contrary to what I may have said earlier) is currently at #7 and can get to #6 with a win.  Enjoy the finals, and I'll wrap them up Sunday night or Monday.