Wimbledon Preview

So we move on from the red clay of Paris to lush lawns of London and the All England Club.  There are quite a few things to look forward to in this coming fortnight.  Will Roger Federer regain his crown?  What about The Great British Hope?  Can the Williams recapture Wimbledon glory?  Or will another women's star be born?  How deep in the 5th set will John Isner go this year?  It should be a great two weeks, so here's my preview.

Here are your "big points" defenders from last year.

Champions:  Rafael Nadal (ESP), Serena Williams (USA)
Finalists:  Tomas Berdych (CZE), Vera Zvonareva (RUS)
Semifinalists:  Novak Djokovic (SRB), Andy Murray (GBR), Petra Kvitova (CZE), Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL)
Quarterfinalists:  Roger Federer (SUI), Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE), Robin Soderling (SWE), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Kim Clijsters (BEL), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Na Li (CHN), Venus Williams (USA)

Men:  Who can win?

Favorites:  Federer, Nadal
If not them, then?:  Murray, Djokovic
Spoilers:  The Americans (Roddick, Fish, Isner), Tsonga, Berdych?
Given the results and the French Open and the tournaments leading up to it, the top 4 are miles ahead of the field.  And I would have the winner would almost assuredly have been Federer or Nadal but then Murray went out and won Queen's.  I put Djokovic up there based on what he has done this year but I seem him hard pressed to beat the other top 3.  However, I do think at least one of the 4 will get taken down early, especially as this is grass and there are plenty of good servers out there, specifically those mentioned as spoilers.

Women:  Who can win?

Favorites:  S.Williams, Maria Sharapova (RUS), Zvonareva, V.Williams
If not them, then?:  Li, Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Kvitova
Spoilers:  Francesca Schiavone (ITA), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS), Germans of all ages

Even though she took 49 weeks off from tennis, who can't say Serena isn't the favorite, or at least co-favorite, at Wimbledon?  This is grass, the surface the Williamses have owned, and no one else has really stepped up.  I also like Zvonareva's chances, at least to get back to the semis or so, she didn't get to two slam finals last year for nothing, and she beat Serena this morning in a classic after choking twice.  Even though Serena is rusty, that has to give her confidence.  I do expect a good barrage of Germans to get to at least the round 16:  Petkovic, Goerges, Lisicki, maybe even Mona Barthel?  And honestly, I would be surprised if Wozniacki got past the quarters, hence, she doesn't make the list.

Other tidbits

Former Wimbledon champions in the draw:  Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) (2002), Federer (2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2009), Nadal (2008,2010), V.Williams (2000,2001,2005,2007,2008), S.Williams (2002,2003,2009,2010), Sharapova (2004)
Other major champions in the draw:  Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP), Andy Roddick (USA), Djokovic, Del Potro, Sharapova, Clijsters
Losing Wimbledon finalists in the draw:  David Nalbandian (ARG) (2002), Roddick (2004,2005,2009), Nadal (2006,2007), Federer (2008), Berdych (2010), V.Williams (2002,2003,2009), S.Williams (2004,2008), Marion Bartoli (FRA) (2007), Zvonareva (2010)
Former junior Wimbledon champions in the draw:  Federer (1998), Jurger Melzer (AUT) (1999), Nicolas Mahut (FRA) (2000), Gael Monfils (FRA) (2004), Jeremy Chardy (FRA) (2005), Donald Young (USA) (2007), Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) (2008), Vera Dushevina (RUS) (2002), Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) (2003), Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) (2004), A.Radwanska (2005), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) (2006), Urszula Radwanska (POL) (2007), Laura Robson (GBR) (2008), Kristyna Pliskova (CZE) (2010) if she qualifies, and a few others lost in qualifying

Looking back at the seeds from last year's Wimbledon, there are both 20 men and 20 women seeded both in 2010 and 2011.  Here is a list of those not seeded a year ago (asterisk denotes first ever seeding at a major), note the similarity list to the French Open list I published 4 weeks ago.
Men:  10-Fish, 13-Troicki, 17-Gasquet, 19-Llodra, 20-Mayer, 22-Dolgopolov, 23-Tipsarevic, 24-Del Potro, 25-Chela, 26-Garcia-Lopez, 28-Nalbandian, 31-Raonic
Women:  8-Kvitova, 11-Petkovic, 16-Goerges, 17-Kanepi, 18-Ivanovic, 20-Peng, 24-Cibulkova, 27-Gajdosova, 28-Makarova*, 29-Vinci, 30-Mattek-Sands*, 32-Pironkova

Here are those dropping from the seeds either by poor play, injury, or retirement.
Men:  14-Ferrero, 15-Hewitt, 17-Ljubicic, 18-Querrey, 22-F.Lopez, 23-Isner, 27-Gulbis, 28-Montanes, 29-Kohlschreiber, 30-Robredo, 31-Hanescu, 32-Benneteau
Women:  8-Clijsters, 12-Petrova, 17-Henin, 18-Rezai, 20-Safina, 22-Martinez Sanchez, 23-Zheng, 26-Kleybanova, 28-A.Bondarenko, 30-Shvedova, 31-Dulgheru, 32-Errani
I plan to keep up on the virtual rankings throughout Wimbledon and will set up the spreadsheet and post a link, probably next Monday.  Enjoy the tennis!