Davis Cup Preview

The Davis Cup resumes this weekend with the semifinal and World Group Playoffs ties, plus some promotion and relegation ties at the lower levels.

Semifinals

Argentina at Serbia:  This tie may hinge on how much Djokovic is able to play given he won the US Open just Monday and had to hang around in New York an extra day.  Also Serbia will hope Tipsarevic is well because Troicki hasn't been very good recently.  If both those two are healthy, I don't see Argentina winning despite Nalbandian's solid record.  Del Potro still hasn't reached his form of 2009.  If Tipsarevic can't go, there's a chance the Argentines could work around Djokovic to win, and if Djokovic is limited all bets are off though Tipsarevic's recent form should make it a fight.
-SRB 3 ARG 1

France at Spain:  Apparently there will be no Monfils for this tie, which reduces France's already slim hopes at a road upset.  They may be hoping Nadal is banged up and jet lagged after his 4 matches in 5 days in New York.  If Nadal is good to go, the Nadal/Ferrer combo is going to be too good despite Tsonga and Simon both being in great form.  If Nadal is limited, France will still need a great effort from Tsonga to win.  The missing Monfils though should allow France to add Llodra to greatly improve their doubles chances against Lopez/Verdasco.
-ESP 3 FRA 1

World Group Playoffs  These are the eight critical ties, determining who will join the 4 nations above plus USA, Germany, Kazakhstan, and Sweden in the 2010 World Group.

Czech Republic at Romania:  If though this is in Romania, the only question really is whether Hanescu can get the home team on the board.  I say he does, especially with Berdych's status in doubt.  The presence of Stepanek should prevent another Kazakhstan.
-CZE 3 ROU 1

Brazil at Russia:  No Davydenko for the home team, but Youzhny leads in their other lower top 100 players.  Bellucci hasn't been great recently and doesn't have much help so Russia should stay in the World Group.
-RUS 3 BRA 1

Canada at Israel:  This one is interesting.  Raonic is supposed to be back but hasn't played much in forever, nor are his teammates much good.  The tie is in Israel, and the Israelis are one of those teams that seem to play above their level in Davis Cup, and they have a good doubles team.  This could be a barnburner.
-ISR 3 CAN 2

Croatia at South Africa:  This is a dangerous tie for the Croats, who go south without Karlovic.  I am going to go with the upset here, Anderson won a title this year at home in Jo-burg, and 3 South Africans made the quarters at that tournament, plus they have a doubles specialist.
-RSA 3 CRO 1

Italy at Chile:  About the only thing going for Chile is that they're hosting, where they've given European teams trouble in the past.  But Gonzalez is only a shadow of his former self, Massu is really getting old, and Capdeville, while he did beat Isner, is only barely a top 100 player.  The Italian contingent has had a solid season, especially on clay (Fognini reached the French quarters and Starace made an ATP final), so expect them to get through and get Italia into the World Group.
-ITA 3 CHI 0

India at Japan:  Bhupathi/Paes are always complaining about not getting home ties, but again they don't draw an elite nation in the playoffs, and they'll be playing on hard courts.  Devvarman is much improved, and of course India wins the doubles.  Nishikori has been rising too but seems to have plateaued, and doesn't have much help.  I'll say Kei beats Somdev, but then Bopanna takes care of business in a live 5th rubber to keep India in the World Group.
-IND 3 JPN 2

Belgium at Austria:  Somehow tiny Belgium has managed to keep itself in the World Group, winning a player in Australia last fall.  Somehow Austria played horrible against France in an airplane hangar.  So this is a toss up, but I think Melzer will come through for the home team.
-AUT 3 BEL 1

Switzerland at Australia:  Other intriguing tie, being played on grass.  We should get to see Hewitt/Federer on day 1, and maybe Tomic can beat Wawrinka to keep things interesting.  But if Australia couldn't beat Belgium at home, how are they going to beat the mighty Swiss?
-SUI 3 AUS 1

Zonal Group I relegation ties  Loser demoted to Zonal Group II
Europe/Africa:  Poland at Finland, Ukraine (no Dolgopolov) at Slovakia
Americas:  Mexico at Ecuador (loser to play Colombia is actual relegation tie)
Asia/Pacific:  Taiwan (no Lu) at Philippines

Zonal Group II promotion ties  Winner back to Zonal Group I
Europe/Africa:  Hungary at Great Britain (Murray), Bosnia at Denmark
Americas:  Peru at Paraguay
Asia/Pacific:  Thailand at South Korea

Both Europe ZG I ties should be good, I'll go with FIN and UKR avoiding relegation.  And Murray gets to play in Scotland as the Brits should easily return to ZG I.