Australian Open Preview

The 2012 slam season begins about 22 hours from when I write this, with Victoria Azarenka kicking off the action at Laver Arena against Heather Watson.  I think the tournament is fairly wide open on both sides though not so wide open as many of the women's majors have been over the past year or so.

For the men, I think anyone of the big four can win, with more or less equal chance.  Djokovic is probably the slight favorite followed by Federer, Murray, and Nadal.  Tsonga then has in my opinion a better chance than anyone outside the big four.  I would not be shocked at all if all four made the semis, but I am hoping a Murray vs Tsonga quarterfinal materializes.  Anyone outside those five even reaching the final would a world-stopping event.

For the women, there are question marks hanging over the veterans Williams, Clijsters, and Sharapova as they confront the "newbies" Kvitova, Azarenka, and Wozniacki.  With Clijsters and Williams seeded relatively low, we could get some blockbuster matches early on such as last year's final Clijsters vs Li in the round of 16.  I imagine the winner will be one of those six ladies (though I don't think Sharapova will win) but Li also has a reasonable chance given her success down under the last two years.  Kvitova's struggles in Sydney probably take her off the "favorite" pedestal but she still has a great shot.  Similary, Azarenka's stock rose with her victory, but depending on who you talk she may not even be in top 3.

It should be an exciting fortnight with lots of great tennis ahead of us.

Men
Defending champion:  Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Defending finalist:  Andy Murray (GBR)
Semifinalists:  David Ferrer (ESP), Roger Federer (SUI)
Quarterfinalists:  Tomas Berdych (CZE), Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR), Rafael Nadal (ESP), Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Previous champions in the draw:  Federer 4 ('04,'06,'07,'10), Djokovic 2 ('08,'11), Nadal ('09)
Junior champions in the draw:  Andy Roddick (USA) ('00), Janko Tipsarevic (SRB) ('01), Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) ('03), Gael Monfils (FRA) ('04), Donald Young (USA) ('05), Bernard Tomic (AUS) ('08)
Potential Surprises:  John Isner (USA), Milos Raonic (CAN), Tomic
Draw by top 8 seeds:  Djokovic/Ferrer vs Murray/Tsonga, Federer/Fish vs Nadal/Berdych

Women

Defending champion:  Kim Clijsters (BEL)

Defending finalist:  Na Li (CHN)

Semifinalists:  Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), Vera Zvonareva (RUS)

Quarterfinalists:  Petra Kvitova (CZE), Andrea Petkovic (GER), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Francesca Schiavone (ITA)

Previous champions in the draw:  Serena Williams (USA) 5 ('03,'05,'07,'09,'10), Maria Sharapova (RUS) ('08), Clijsters ('11)

Junior champions in the draw:  Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (CZE) 2 ('02,'03), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) 2 ('06,'07), Virginie Razzano (FRA) ('99), Jelena Jankovic (SRB) ('01), Shahar Peer (ISR) ('04), Victoria Azarenka (BLR) ('05), Arantxa Rus (NED) ('08), Ksenia Pervak (KAZ) ('09)

Potential Surprises:  Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Mona Barthel (GER)

Draw by top 8 seeds:  Wozniacki/Li vs Azarenka/Radwanska, Sharapova/Zvonareva vs Kvitova/Stosur

      Clijsters is near Li, Serena is near Zvonareva