Fed Cup Preview

The 2012 edition of the Fed Cup begins this week with some zonal group ties throughout the week leading into the World Group ties this weekend.  As usual, here's a full rundown of the action, along with my predictions.

World Group I

Spain at Russia:  Given that this will be played on a hard court in Moscow, Russia with Sharapova and Kuznetsova should have no trouble with Spain and Martinez Sanchez and Suarez Navarro.  RUS 3-0

Serbia at Belgium:  Kim Clijsters will not be playing for the Belgians but Serbia is without Ivanovic.  This presses Flipkens and Jovanovski into action alongside Wickmayer and Jankovic.  This is a tough tie to call because although Jankovic should get hers, Flipkens plays well and Jovanovski has really slumped from last year.  However, I'm going to give it to Serbia in a live 5th rubber as Jankovic is becoming a legendary Fed Cup player.  SRB 3-2

Ukraine at Italy:  Again, given this will be in Italy on clay, you have to like the home side.  The Italians will be at full strength while Alona Bondarenko is absent for Ukraine.  I'll give Ukraine one point because Italy (Schiavone in particular) tend to lose focus on occasion.  ITA 3-1

Czech Republic at Germany:  This tie looked a whole lot more intriguing when Petkovic was healthy, but the Germans still have a shot, running out a deep team of Lisicki, Goerges, Kerber, and Groenefeld (for doubles).  The Czechs are Kvitova plus a doubles team but Kvitova could be enough.  Tough tie to call but I'm not losing faith in the Czechs who won two decisive doubles matches last year.  The Germans are probably going to need an upset over Kvitova to win.  CZE 3-2

World Group II

Belarus at United States:  So the Williams sisters are showing for the USA, though I'm doubting Venus will play singles.  Even with Serena's shaky form the Americans should be able to work around the new world no. 1 Azarenka to win given their doubles prowess with either the Williams or Venus/Huber.  The key will be if McHale (or Venus) can beat Govortsova (or Yakimova).  USA 3-2

Slovenia at Japan:  The Slovenes drew the short end of the stick in having to travel all the way to Japan, where a decent Japanese squad awaits (Morita, Date Krumm, Nara).  Hercog has little depth behind her so I'm guessing it will be a losing cause.  JPN 3-1

France at Slovakia:  France is in the World Group II for the first time and won't have it easy as both Cibulkova and Hantuchova are turning out for the Slovaks, and of course Bartoli doesn't play Fed Cup.  It could be a long weekend for Nicolas Escude and whoever he decided to throw into the fire:  Parmentier, Razzano, Rezai, and Cornet are available.  SVK 3-0

Australia at Switzerland:  The Swiss finally got back to World Group competition, but primarily on the strength of Patty Schnyder, who is now retired.  I don't recognize half their names, but Bacsinszky and Voegele (I assume) will have it rough against Stosur and Gadjosova (or Dokic).  I'll give the Swiss a point though because the Aussies are major chokers.  AUS 3-1

So to refresh, the World Group I winners go on the semis in April, while the losers play the World Group II winners at the same time to see which four stay/join the top tier in 2013.  The World Group II losers similarly meet the Zonal Group I winners to see which four stay/join the second tier in 2013.

Europe/Africa Zonal Group I

This is a round robin group with four pools, to be played in Eilat, Israel.  The pool winners playoff to see which two nations go to the World Group II playoffs.  The pool losers playoff to see which two nations are relegated to Zonal Group II

Group A (Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia):  This is a lackluster three teams with Kanepi not participating.  Bulgaria's Pironkova and Austria's Paszek are the best players here, but Austria has more depth, so I think they'll advance.

Group B (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Greece, Hungary, Sweden):  Bosnia was promoted from Group II last year, Hungary has a couple nice junior players, Greece has one top 100 player, but Sweden with their "studs" Larsson and Arvidsson should be too much for the opposition.

Group C (Great Britain, Israel, Netherlands, Portugal):  Now things get a little more interesting.  Israel has Peer but not much else, the Dutch were a revelation last year by winning their group with Rus and Krajicek, but the Brits have a strong team (Baltacha, Keothavong, Watson, Robson), and Portugal isn't horrible either.  It probably comes down the Netherlands/Great Britain, and I like the Dutch, primarily because of their play last year.

Group D (Croatia, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania):  You could make the argument that the best two teams in the zone are here, and with no disrespect to the Croats and (recently promoted) Luxembourgers, the Poland/Romania tie is going to decide this group.  Poland has the world no. 6 but their no. 2 is her younger sister, who it should be noted is back inside the top 100.  Romania ought to be in World Group II probably by now with their four top 60 players.  I think the depth of Niculescu, Begu, Cirstea, and Dulgheru will be too much for the Radwanskas.

Promotion ties:  NED def. AUT, ROU def. SWE

Relegation ties:  POR def. EST, LUX def. BIH

Americas Zonal Group I

This is a round robin group with two pools to be played in Curitiba, Brazil on clay.  The pool winners and losers will playoff for promotion and relegation, respectively.  The action actually got underway today.

Group A (Argentina, Bahamas, Canada, Peru):  Argentina goes in without Dulko but does Ormaechea who qualified at the Australian Open and won a match.  Canada is strong and deep (even without Marino) but this is clay.  Peru isn't a bad team but won't be able to match the firepower of the other two.  Bahamas was promoted last year.  I say the Argentines pull the upset.

Group B (Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, Venezuela):  With all due respect to Cepede Royg and her Paraguayans, this pool probably comes down to Brazil/Colombia, and Colombia likely wins again with Duque Marino and Castano against names I recognize for Brazil besides Duarte, who is listed third, if that means anything.

Promotion tie:  COL def. ARG (maybe a mild upset?)

Relegation tie:  Don't know enough to guess here

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group I

This is a round robin group with two pools to be played in Shenzhen, China.  The pool winners and losers will playoff for promotion and relegation, respectively.  It looks like the stars have finally aligned for China here.  They are hosting, have their best players participating, and their best competition was promoted last year.

Group A (China, Taiwan, Uzbekistan):  Li and Peng are both playing for China, which means they're a shoo-in to the promotion tie.  Uzbekistan with Amanmuradova and Taiwan with Chan and Chang should have a nice battle for second.

Group B (Indonesia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Thailand):  Probably the harder pool, and I imagine the Kazakhs with Voskoboeva and Shvedova should get through though the Thais with Tanasugarn and Lertcheewakarn might have something to say about that.  I'll also mention Indonesia here because they were promoted last year and have former junior slam champ Widjaja.

Promotion tie:  CHN def. KAZ

Relegation tie:  UZB def. KOR

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group II

This is a round robin group with two pools to be played in Shenzhen, China.  The pool winners will play for promotion, but this is the lowest level so there is no relegation.

Group A:  Hong Kong, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Singapore, Sri Lanka

Group B:  India, Iran, Oman, Philippines, Turkmenistan

I don't know enough about any of these teams, except India who have Sania Mirza playing.  It would be hard to see them not advancing.

I commend you if you've read all the way to the bottom here.  I'll be back on Sunday night or Monday to wrap up the action, and to see if my thoughts came true.  And in case you're wondering, the Europe/Africa Zonal Groups II and III and Americas Zonal Group II will be contesting later this year.