Indian Wells/Miami Preview

The first Masters of the year is upon us with the men beginning play on Thursday in Indian Wells, California, and I think it is an intriguing tournament with really any of the big 4 in play to win as all have had promising starts to the year.  I would be shocked if someone outside the top 4 won this tournament, and it really surprised me to look back at the quarterfinalists from 2011.  Remember Murray had his debacle where he lost to Young and Bogomolov at the two American tournaments, but I think what comes out is how quietly steady the second tier of Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, Fish, and even Tipsarevic and Del Potro at getting deep into tournaments, especially the important ones over the past few months.  At any rate, after Indian Wells specifically and IW/Miami in general the season could really take one of four paths. Any one of the four can make a statement(s) an American soil.  Here are some 2012 records to throw about:  Djokovic 10-1, Nadal 9-2, Federer 16-2 (10 match streak), Murray 14-2, Ferrer 18-1 (9 match streak, though on clay against lesser competition).

The women already played their first Tier I tournament in Doha, but Indian Wells and Miami are Premier Mandatory and much bigger tournaments.  While Azarenka is 17-0 on the year and rapidly cementing her place as world no. 1, there are plenty of others who want their say, particularly in Miami when the Williams sisters and Clijsters enter the fray.  Kvitova and Sharapova will be trying to keep pace with Azarenka and beat her in Indian Wells and take a big tournament.  And remember the Belarussian has the Miami title to defend.  I believe Indian Wells could be a big tournament for Wozniacki as she defends her title, and really the last of the big points that got her the no. 1 ranking and allowed her to hold it for so long.  Either she can right the ship and show she still has top 5 talent and contend at the bigger tournaments this year, or she could crash and burn and continue a slide not unlike Jankovic or even Ivanovic.  And then there are numerous other names that one has to feel could get hot and one of these events, but who are maybe rapidly falling into obscurity with the rise of Azarenka, Kvitova, and a consistent Sharapova.  I'm talking about almost everyone else in the top 15.

Finally, here are defending QF points or better in Indian Wells and Miami, and you can see how surprised I was...

Indian Wells:  Novak Djokovic (SRB) def. Rafael Nadal (ESP), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) def. Marion Bartoli (FRA)
SF-Roger Federer (SUI), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Yanina Wickmayer (BEL)
QF-Richard Gasquet (FRA), Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI), Ivo Karlovic (CRO), Tommy Robredo (ESP), Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Shuai Peng (CHN), Ana Ivanovic (SRB), Shahar Peer (ISR)

Miami:  Novak Djokovic (SRB) def. Rafael Nadal (ESP), Victoria Azarenka (BLR) def. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
SF-Roger Federer (SUI), Mardy Fish (USA), Vera Zvonareva (RUS), Andrea Petkovic (GER)
QF-David Ferrer (ESP), Tomas Berdych (CZE), Gilles Simon (FRA), Kevin Anderson (RSA), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Kim Clijsters (BEL), Jelena Jankovic (SRB), Alexandra Dulgheru (ROU)

Players defending big points at both tournaments:  Djokovic (W/W), Nadal (F/F), Federer (SF/SF), Azarenka (QF/W), Sharapova (SF/F)

It's definitely put up or shut up time for some of these players and their current rankings.  I imagine the top 25s will look quite different in a month's time.  And as usual, enjoy the tennis!