French Open Preview

The French Open, the second major of 2012, gets underway on Sunday, and after we began the clay season not knowing quite what to expect we now have a small amount of favorites going into the tournament.  Actually, there are three men and three women that I believe will win the tournament and would be surprised if anyone else did.  But, as the last several women's French Opens have shown, anything can happen (at least on the women's side).

With apologies to Andy Murray, this men's tournament is really about three men, and likely only two:  Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer.  As a second seed, Federer may have had some hope, as he could have hoped the draw yielded a Nadal/Djokovic semi, but as the third seed, I can't see him going through both Nadal and Djokovic like he had to do last year.  It would be a surprise to see any of those three miss the semis.  I think Berdych and Ferrer are leading candidates for the fourth spot if they fall in Murray's quarter.  I just don't see Murray having a great tournament, and I'm also skeptical on Isner despite his clay wins over Federer and Tsonga.

The three women I think can win are Azarenka, Sharapova, and Serena.  However, I'm not going to count out Li yet as the dark horse.  Stosur, Radwanska, and Kvitova would really be a reach but are the next-tier candidates.  Azarenka has been solid all year, as have the "clay-courters" Sharapova and Serena, each of whom have combined to lose only 1 match on clay this year.  But the world no. 2 will need to avoid Serena to have a shot.  Li has been steadily building up her game over the course of the clay season, and she is the defending champion after all.  Not many other players in the top 10 could be considered "in form".

It should be an exciting fortnight with lots of great tennis ahead of us.

Men
Defending champion:  Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Defending finalist:  Roger Federer (SUI)
Semifinalists:  Novak Djokovic (SRB), Andy Murray (GBR)
Quarterfinalists:  Gael Monfils (FRA), Robin Soderling (SWE), Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG), Fabio Fognini (ITA) - not seeing any of those getting back to the QF.
Previous champions in the draw:  Nadal 6 ('05,'06,'07,'08,'10,'11), Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) ('03), Federer ('09)
Junior champions in the draw:  Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) ('00), Richard Gasquet (FRA) ('02), Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) ('03), Monfils ('04), Marin Cilic (CRO) ('05), Martin Klizan (SVK) ('06)

Women

Defending champion:  Na Li (CHN)

Defending finalist:  Francesca Schiavone (ITA)

Semifinalists:  Maria Sharapova (RUS), Marion Bartoli (FRA)

Quarterfinalists:  Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Andrea Petkovic (GER), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS), Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)

Previous champions in the draw:  Serena Williams (USA) ('02), Ana Ivanovic (SRB) ('08), Kuznetsova ('09), Schiavone ('10), Li ('11)

Junior champions in the draw:  Nadia Petrova (RUS) ('98), Lourdes Dominguez Lino (ESP) ('99), Virginie Razzano (FRA) ('00), Kaia Kanepi (EST) ('01), Sesil Karatancheva (KAZ)-q ('04), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) ('06), Alize Cornet (FRA) ('07), Simona Halep (ROU) ('08), Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) ('09), Elina Svitolina (UKR)-q ('10), Ons Jabeur (TUN)-q ('11)
    q - player alive after one round of qualifying