Madrid/Rome Preview

We are now upon the meat of the clay season with many of the warmup events behind and Madrid and Rome the next two with the French Open beginning 4 weeks from tomorrow.  Rafael Nadal and Maria Sharapova have the momentum on each tour, Nadal due to his wins in Monte Carlo (def. Djokovic) and Barcelona, and Sharapova due to her win in Stuttgart (def. Azarenka).  Is it possible the no. 2's can capitalize on this momentum going forward and push the current no. 1's?  Sharapova can actually take no. 1 this week with the title and an early loss by Azarenka.  Nadal, however, probably has to wait until the American Masters to have any legitimate shot, though he can gain on Djokovic with wins in Madrid and Rome.  Here are the big points' defenders in the coming two weeks.

Champions:  Novak Djokovic (SRB) - Mad/Rom, Petra Kvitova (CZE) - Mad, Maria Sharapova (RUS) - Rom
Runners-Up:  Rafael Nadal (ESP) - Mad/Rom, Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - Mad, Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Semifinalists:  Roger Federer (SUI) - Mad, Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) - Mad, Richard Gasquet (FRA) - Rom, Andy Murray (GBR) - Rom, Na Li (CHN) - Mad/Rom, Julia Goerges (GER) - Mad, Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) - Rom
Quarterfinalists:  Tomas Berdych (CZE) - Mad/Rom, Robin Soderling (SWE) - Mad/Rom, Michael Llodra (FRA) - Mad, David Ferrer (ESP) - Mad, Marin Cilic (CRO) - Rom, Florian Mayer (GER) - Rom,  Anastasia Pavyluchenkova (RUS) - Mad, Lucie Safarova (CZE) - Mad, Bethanie Mattek-Sands (USA) - Mad, Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) - Mad, Jelena Jankovic (SRB) - Rom, Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - Rom, Greta Arn (HUN) - Rom, Francesca Schiavone (ITA) - Rom

Players reaching both quarterfinals last year:
Djokovic (W/W), Nadal (F/F), Azarenka (F/QF), Li (SF/SF), Federer (SF/QF), Berdych (QF/QF), Soderling (QF/QF)

No one really too far out in the rankings went deep on the men's side last year but some women did including Mattek-Sands and Arn.  Both look primed to completely disappear from the rankings.  It would also be nice for Bellucci, Mayer, Llodra, and Safarova to have a couple decent tournament as they have a large part of their points tied up here.

The withdrawal of Murray from Madrid opens up the door for someone to have an "easy" road to the semis, Tsonga take the 4th seed, and Isner the 8th seed and the first round bye.  Bellucci and Ferrer each took a set off Djokovic in Madrid and Murray took a set off him in Rome.  I would be surprised to see Djokovic win both tournaments this year, especially given Nadal's form.  That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone outside the top 2 win in Madrid, given the altitude and the "blue" clay.

On the women's side, I think the top 3 players plus Serena have the best at this one.  Sharapova and Azarenka are both in good form, Kvitova is the defending champion, and the unique conditions could favor a very much in form Serena.  I would be mildly surprised to someone besides those four win this tournament.  The women's main draw actually began today and Bartoli and Zvonareva are already out and Stosur nearly followed them, beating Martic 7-5 in the 3rd set tiebreak.  Also of note, Venus beat Halep 8-6 in the 3rd set tiebreak.  This also becomes boom or bust for Li and Schiavone (especially the former) as they need to get into form going into the French Open to defend those enormous points from last year.