Wimbledon Preview

Tennis' crown jewel, Wimbledon, begins on Monday, and I suspect the winner will emerge from a small pool of legitimate candidates.

As usual, the men's champion is likely to be Djokovic, Nadal, or Federer.  In the past I have often thought of Murray as a long shot contender, but his form recently does not suggest though, and one might wonder if Tsonga or Berdych has a better probability of reaching the final.  The Americans, who often enter Wimbledon with at least some hope of being a dark horse, enter in poor form.  Roddick is still alive in the Eastbourne draw but otherwise has had a horrible year.  Fish hasn't played since Miami and Isner's clay season didn't turn out as many expected.  As to the eventual champion, I think the top 3 almost have equal chance of winning.  All three seem a bit vulnerable due to Djokovic's struggling often in the French Open, and Nadal and Federer's campaigns in Halle.  If forced to pick I choose Nadal but I am looking forward to seeing what transpires on the final Friday and Sunday for sure.  That said, I think there is a decent chance of one of those three not reaching the semis given the recent play of Tsonga and Berdych.

Looking at the top women, I wonder if this year the championship doesn't come down to just Serena or Sharapova.  The latter is obviously the in form player of the moment and is my favorite, having reached 3 of the past 4 major finals, while Serena can never be counted out though she has really flamed out in recent majors, only getting to one quarterfinal (US Open final) since her return from injury.  If Serena meets Sharapova is would pick Serena given their head-to-head, but Serena could falter early.  I suppose Azarenka could surge to win this title and Kvitova is the defending champion but is there beyond that that could legitimately contend to win this title?  I'm struggling to come up with even dark horses.  Stosur has been horrible at Wimbledon, I suppose Radwanska is the 5th favorite, and maybe you throw in Bartoli or one of the Germans.  Anyway, I'm hoping Serena is drawn in the bottom half.

Men
Defending champion:  Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Defending finalist:  Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Semifinalists:  Andy Murray (GBR), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Quarterfinalists:  Roger Federer (SUI), Mardy Fish (USA), Feliciano Lopez (ESP), Bernard Tomic (AUS) - tough road back to the quarters for 3 of those 4
Previous champions in the draw:  Federer 6 ('03,'04,'05,'06,'07,'09), Nadal 2 ('08,'11), Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) ('02), Djokovic ('11)
Junior champions in the draw:  Federer ('98), Jurgen Melzer (AUT) ('99), Nicolas Mahut (FRA) ('00), Jeremy Chardy (FRA) ('05), Donald Young (USA) ('07), Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) ('08), Andrey Kuznetsov (RUS) ('09)

Women

Defending champion:  Petra Kvitova (CZE)

Defending finalist:  Maria Sharapova (RUS)

Semifinalists:  Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Sabine Lisicki (GER)

Quarterfinalists:  Marion Bartoli (FRA), Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL), Tamira Paszek (AUT)

Previous champions in the draw:  Venus Williams (USA) 5 ('00,'01,'05,'07,'08), Serena Williams (USA) 4 ('02,'03,'09,'10), Sharapova ('04), Kvitova ('11)

Junior champions in the draw:  Vera Dushevina (RUS) ('02), Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) ('04), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) ('05), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) ('06), Urszula Radwanska (POL) ('07), Laura Robson (GBR) ('08), Kristyna Pliskova (CZE) ('10), Ashleigh Barty (AUS) ('11)