Istanbul Preview

The world's top eight begin play in their year end championships (YEC) tomorrow in Istanbul, Turkey.  This should be quite a tournament as a number of the women are playing well and several could win the title.  Here are the eight participants with their points this week and some stats.

1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 10,190 - 4th YEC appearance ('09-'11), 5-6 record, best result '11 F - 6 titles this year including the Aussie Open, 67-8 record
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - 9115 - 6th YEC appearance ('04-'07,'11), 13-7 record, best result '04 W - 3 titles this year including the French Open, 56-10 record
3) Serena Williams (USA) - 7900 - 7th YEC appearance ('01,'02,'04,'07-'09), 16-5 record, best result '01,'09 W - 6 titles including Wimbledon, the US Open, and the Olympics, 53-4 record
4) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 7095 - 2nd YEC appearance ('11 + alternate in '08,'09), 3-2 record, best result 1-2 in '11 RR - 3 titles this year, 57-17 record
5) Angelique Kerber (GER) - 5470 - 1st YEC appearance - 2 titles this year, 60-19 record
6) Petra Kvitova (CZE) - 5215 - 2nd YEC appearance ('11), 5-0 record, best result '11 W - 2 titles this year, 45-15 record
7) Sara Errani (ITA) - 4855 - 1st YEC appearance - 4 titles this year, 54-20 record
8) Na Li (CHN) - 4726 - 2nd YEC appearance ('11), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '11 RR - 1 title this year, 41-15 record

The red group appears to be much more difficult as it includes Azarenka, Williams, Kerber, and Li while the white group consists of Sharapova, Radwanska, Kvitova, and Errani.  The number 1 is technically up for grabs thought Azarenka would have to go 0-3 and Sharapova would need to win the title.  The top 4 rankings are mostly set but there could still be some movement in spots 5-8.

As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:

-Australian Open:  Victoria Azarenka
-French Open:  Maria Sharapova
-Wimbledon:  Serena Williams
-US Open:  Serena Williams

-Dubai:  Victoria Azarenka
-Indian Wells:  Victoria Azarenka
-Miami:  Agnieszka Radwanska
-Madrid:  Serena Williams
-Rome:  Maria Sharapova
-Toronto:  Petra Kvitova
-Cincinatti:  Na Li
-Tokyo:  Nadia Petrova
-Beijing:  Victoria Azarenka

Azarenka is the hottest player at the moment but Serena has done but win since her debacle at the French Open.  I could see Serena tripping up once to any of the players in her group but I doubt she loses twice which means she'll advance and be the player to beat in the semis and final.  I expect Azarenka should also get through as Li hasn't been real consistent this year and I'm not expecting much from Kerber in her first YEC after a mediocre fall season.

On the other side, Sharapova has been strong recently as has Radwanska and you can't count out Kvitova after her poor fall since she has such a great indoor record and didn't lose a match here last year.  Errani, despite her fight, is going to struggle to win a match, she has some good results this year but that came mostly from taking care of the players ranked below her.  I think Sharapova and Radwanska will survive, I just can't see Kvitova flipping a switch and getting unbeatable all of a sudden.

Then between the top 4 in the world I expect Serena and Azarenka to advance since Sharapova can't beat either of them on hard courts.  We could have another great final and I'll go with the "upset" and Azarenka to win the title.

At any rate, there should be some good tennis ahead of us.