Thursday, November 1, 2012

Paris Quarterfinals

Chaos has struck the ATP in Paris!  For the first time since '10 Paris, we will have a Masters champion not ranked in the top 4, and we know this by the end of the third round.  Nadal withdrew a week or two ago.  Then Federer pulled out after his lengthy final in Basel.  Next Djokovic bageled Querrey in his opening match, but then the wheels came and down he went 0-6 7-6 6-4.  The only big 4 man left was Murray, but after serving for the match and holding match point, he succumbed to qualifier Janowicz 5-7 7-6 6-2.

Here are the eight vying to become the first man since Soderling to win a Masters outside the big 4:
4) David Ferrer (ESP)
5) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
6) Tomas Berdych (CZE)
8) Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)
Gilles Simon (FRA)
Sam Querrey (USA)
Michael Llodra (FRA)
Q) Jerzy Janowicz (POL)

Ferrer, Tsonga, and Berdych were all quarterfinalists from a year ago, but each of the others was ranked in the top 10 recently if not now (Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Monaco, Isner).

There are 3 Frenchman still in the draw including Llodra, a wildcard ranked outside the top 100 who is recapturing the magic of 2010 when he beat Djokovic and held match point against Soderling in SF, and Simon, who may have come through one of the easiest paths to a Masters QF ever thanks to Federer's withdrawal (Baghdatis, L) Hanescu, walkover by Nishikori).  Then we have Querrey, who may also have recaptured the magic of 2010 when he won 4 titles, who overcame that bagel against Djokovic and then swept out Raonic.

And what of this Jerzy Janowicz, who two weeks ago made his first ATP quarterfinal in Moscow.  He took out Kohlschreiber, Cilic, and Murray in succession.  He is 6'8" and 21 years old from Lodz, Poland and has won 3 challengers this year.  The kid is rapid rising, though he did make some noise at Wimbledon, making the 3rd round with 9-7 in the 5th win over Gulbis before falling to F.Mayer 7-5 in the 5th.

Tomorrow's quarterfinal matchups:
-Berdych vs Simon
-Tipsarevic vs Janowicz
-Ferrer vs Tsonga
-Querrey vs Llodra

I give Janowicz and Llodra both a decent chance at making the semis, but I think this tournament comes down a battle between the two that have most threatened the big 4's dominance: Berdych and Tsonga.

Enjoy a potentially wild wacky weekend in Paris.

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