2013 Preview

The 2013 tennis season gets underway Saturday night (in the US) with 6 tournaments plus the Hopman Cup as players prep for the Australian Open.  I plan to keep updating several of the pages that you can link to on the right, including a list 2013 champions and hopefully the slam summaries, although that depends some on the time I have available.  I am considering making some changes to the weekly posts  but am still turning those over in my mind.  There is some bad news about the WTA Top 10 by Birth Year pages in that the WTA changed their website so that one can no longer sort their rankings by date of birth.  I will try and contact them about this but if the rankings can't be sorted my birth year rankings will likely be discontinued.

I want to start by recaps my "eye"-men and women that I pointed out at the beginning of 2012, players I thought had a chance to rise and make their presence known on the tour.
Men: Haase, Muller, Stebe, Souza, Pospisil
Women: Pervak, Begu, Halep, Erakovic, Barthel
All of these players really flatlined on their respective tours and none made the jump into the top 50 or 25 (dependent on where they were ranked).  Haase and Begu did each win a title but didn't make much noise beyond that.  Barthel also won a title and was on fire early in the year, earning a seed at a couple majors, but then went on a long losing streak and seemed to reach her ceiling.  Several of these ten are not in the top 100 and only Halep and Barthel are still in the top 50, so my eyes weren't on the right people.

So here's a few thoughts on the upcoming seasons:

ATP

The dominance of the big 4 waned somewhat over 2012 at the Masters levels with Ferrer stepping up and winning a Masters in Paris and Isner, Berdych, and Gasquet each reaching Masters finals.  I expect in 2013 some more of the same since although Murray has stepped his game, Federer is playing less and Nadal is battling back from injury.  I do not expect a first time major champion to appear in 2013 after Murray's run to the podium in New York last year but I wouldn't be shocked with a new finalist.  I expect Djokovic to be no. 1 for most if not all of the year as I'm not sold on Murray being a week-in, week-out competitor.  Federer should be in the mix at most of the tournaments he plays while Nadal is a big question mark.  While I do think Nadal should be able to find his form by the clay season, the French Open is the most open as it has been since the Spaniard won their in 2005.

If anyone is to battle past of the big 4 on the final weekend of the majors and in Masters finals, I really only have three names for you, and one is a bit a question mark himself: Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Richard Gasquet.  Berdych made the semis of the US Open last year and made 2 semis and a final in 2010.  Del Potro made all 4 quarterfinals last year beat Federer twice and the end of last year plus Djokovic at the Olympics.  Gasquet made the fourth round of all 4 majors and the Rogers Cup final.  All three are only a nice draw or big win away from a semi, and we know they have the talent to beat a big name.  Will this be the year?  I admit Gasquet is a big of a stretch but I wanted to throw his name in as a dark horse.

Those not on that list include Ferrer, Tsonga, and Isner.  Ferrer rarely beats a top 4 player especially at the majors.  I am souring quickly on Tsonga, who seems to enjoy doing just enough to get to London at year's end, though we'll see what he does in Australia where he has thrived in the past.  Isner may have reached his peak as his second half of 2012 was not very good.

Risers: After his breakout at the Aussie Open 2 years ago, Raonic hasn't risen as dramatic as once thought but he has risen.  He has now won 3 titles and has given Federer some good matches.  But he has flamed out early a few times at majors.  He may be ready to get back to the second week of majors now, though it may be another year or two before he becomes a serious contender.  Many others that broke out in 2011 including Dolgopolov, Tomic, and Harrison have also leveled off with the Ukrainian higher than the others.

But two players have replaced them as top new talents in the Belgian David Goffin and the Pole Jerzy Janowicz.  Goffin seems to be doing a steady rise and we'll see if he can keep it up in a full season on the main tour.  The same goes for Janowicz, although he would seem to have a higher trajectory after reaching the Paris final following a tear through some challengers.  Also worth noting here are Nishikori and Dimitrov.  The former is establishing himself as a top 25 players but that may be his ceiling while the latter may have finally found his footing and could become upwardly mobile again.

Americans:  With the retirement of Roddick, the immediate future doesn't look great for American players.  Isner seems to be a top 15 or 20 feature but may have reached his ceiling.  Querrey is now back from injury, is rising again, and has shown the potential to beat top players and could also become a top 15 player, but I doubt he can put it all together for two weeks to make a serious major run.  Fish seems to be on the way down after a career year in 2011.

Looking at younger prospects, Harrison is down to no. 69 and hasn't been able to take his game to the next level.  Kudla and Sock, who played out the '10 boys US Open final, are both in the top 150 and could be threats down the road but likely not this year.  There are also Steve Johnson and Rhyne Williams in the top 200 who seem to have decent game.  In between are hardworking journeymen Russell, Ram, Levine, Blake, and others plus Baker who plateaued after he initially was a success following his return to the tour.  Young is flailing at no. 189.

So this could be a frustrating year for American tennis fans but it will be interesting to follow Kudla, Sock, Johnson, and Williams over 2013 to see if there will be any optimism for the years following.

WTA

The top tier of women's players are starting resemble in a small way the top of the men's game with Azarenka, Sharapova, and Serena sharing the majority of the big titles and especially the majors.  I really expect more of the same in 2013 and wonder if Serena could have a massive year.  Only poor performances at the Australian and French Opens last year kept her from getting back to no. 1 and having an even better year as she went unbeaten against Azarenka and Sharapova.  I expect her to get to no. 1 and hold it at least through Wimbledon.  Azarenka and Sharapova have reached a level of consistency on the tour as to be in the running throughout most of the year too, but if they're going to be  no. 1 for long they will need to beat Serena Williams.  I would be a little surprised if someone outside those 3 wins a major but we've been surprised by the WTA before, specifically in Paris.

I go back and forth on the future of Radwanska the elder.  She reached the Wimbledon final and took a set off Serena among other exploits but I am beginning to toward her level falling off a bit.  She is too vulnerable to the early upset and can't beat Azarenka or Serena.  She needs to keep having good draws and beating the players ranked 5 through 8 consistently to stay at no. 4.  Beyond her there are a bunch of players who have shown the potential to rise up and win a major but have been very inconsistent and the top 3 plus Radwanska have risen above them.  This group includes Kvitova, Li, Stosur, and even Bartoli to a lesser extent.  These ladies could win a major, but I'm not betting on it.  Then there is Kerber, who has reached 2 semis in 5 majors, but kind of petered out at the end of the year.  I thought she was on her way to being the next best thing, but I've heard others think she has overachieved to get to no. 5.  I will reserve judgment until another year has passed.

Then there's what I'm now calling the WTA's Ferrer:  Caroline Wozniacki.  She is not a no. 1 player but she is a top 10.  I'm guessing (based on her last few '12 tournaments) that she will bounce back to win 4 or 5 titles and end the year somewhere between 5 and 7 and reach a major quarter or two.  Last year she wasn't even beating the players she beat all the time in '10 and '11 to get to and stay at no. 1.  I think she'll be beating those players this year a majority of the time, enough to have a nice season and get her smile back.

Risers: Most of the risers on the WTA over the past year or so have been veterans finding new life such as Errani, Petrova, and Vinci, to some extent Ivanovic, and players like Makarova and Hsieh.  There hasn't been lots of new young talent entering the top 25 like Kerber.  There have been some players slowly moving up in the top 100 though like Radwanska the younger, Stephens, the Brits Robson and Watson, Babos, and Arruabarrena-Vecino.  There are also some youngsters rising up rapidly from the junior ranks in German Annika Beck and Croat Donna Vekic.  These players are a year out from their male counterparts Raonic, Goffin, and Janowicz.

Americans: Obviously the top of the American game is good on the women's side with Serena and even Venus coming back to form.  But the women have much more promising younger players ready to make an immediate impact than the men.  I am interested in seeing how McHale handles the first part of '13 after her growth was stunted by an illness late in '12.  She had steadily risen throughout the first part of '12.  Also steadily rising up to US #2 position was Lepchenko who is now unbelievably ranked no. 21.  I would think she's reached her ceiling but she'll be interesting to watch to see how she follows up her career year.

Below them, the top 100 is filled with promising American talent.  Stephens will look to build on a breakout '12.  Oudin had a revival year that included winning her first career title as a qualifier on Birmingham's grass.  Vandeweghe has returned to the top 100 after an awful '11.  Davis used a nice fall to reach the top 100 while Hampton was quietly there most of the year.  Looking farther down, Cohen and Keys have had some decent runs at WTA tournaments and college star Burdette is making the transition to the WTA well.  Then there's former girls US Open champ Min who just broke into the top 200.

This could be a make or break year for some of these women as to whether they will continue to rise or if they will be stuck toiling on the challenger circuit like King, Mattek-Sands, and Falconi now are.

And so now, to the season.  Please comment if you have any suggestions as to what you'd like to see this blog focus on.