Australian Open: Finals

There was one classic semifinal and three kind of duds over the past couple days but nevertheless the stage is set for our two finals.  Roger Federer goes 4-0 in tiebreaks in the last two matches but just 1-5 in other sets as he couldn't outlast Murray.  One wonders if fatigue played a part in how he didn't show up for the 5th set.  Now Djokovic not only has an extra day of rest but also a brief match against Ferrer rather than a recent 5-setter against Federer.  I think that will play a role.

1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. 3) Andy Murray (GBR)

These two meet in a major final for the 3rd time in 5 majors and they split their two previous meeting, Djokovic winning the '12 Aussie Open and Murray meeting the '12 US Open.  This is becoming a bit of a rivalry.  Djokovic leads the all-time 10-7, all the details of which you can find here.  They met twice after the US Open last year and Djokovic won both matches, but both were competitive (7-5 in the 3rd in London, and Murray had match points in Shanghai).  Overall last year they met 7 times with Djokovic winning 4.  14 of the meetings have been on hard courts where Djokovic has a 8-6 edge.  Djokovic leads 24-20 in sets.

I like Djokovic by a nose in this match, he had the easier semifinal and he's beaten Murray the last 2 years in Australia.  That said, this is a new Murray, one that has the grand slam monkey off his back so I wouldn't be surprised should he prevail.  I'm going with Djokovic in a back-and-forth 5-setter.

Djokovic: 10th major final (4th at the AO), 5-4 record (3-0), 2nd consecutive F

Murray: 6th major final (3rd at the AO), 1-4 record (0-2), 3rd consecutive F

-Djokovic is in his 8th major final in the last 10 majors, dating back to '10 US Open

-The top 5 in the rankings is Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Ferrer, Nadal

Azarenka and Li came through semis fairly easily and it was especially impressive how Li took apart Sharapova, who had lost just 9 games in the tournament.  Azarenka has benefited from a very nice draw, playing just one seeded player and that was #29 Stephens while Li has fought through #2 Sharapova and #4 Radwanska.  Li has yet to drop a set though while Azarenka lost just one, to Hampton, in round 3.

1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) vs. 6) Na Li (CHN)

Azarenka has won the last 4 matches in this series but is only 5-4 all time against Li.  You can find the full head to head here.  They met 3 times in 2012 and Azarenka won all 3 dropping 2 sets.  They have played 7 times on hard courts with Azarenka ahead 4-3.  Overall Azarenka leads 12-10 in sets.  They did play at the '11 Aussie Open and Li won that match in straight sets.

I've gone back and forth on this one but have eventually settled on Li because her form has been so good.  I'm going to say Li in 3 sets but this should be competitive final.  Azarenka looked down and out against Hampton and was pressed by Kuznetsova for a set and my gut feeling is Li will prevail in the end.  Either way, I'm expecting a great match.

Azarenka: 3rd major final (2nd at the AO), 1-1 record (1-0), 2nd consecutive F

Li: 3rd major final (2nd at the AO), 1-1 record (1-0), last '11 French Open

-I was wrong in an earlier post, Azarenka must win title to retain no. 1 in the world.  Serena has moved past Sharapova for #2 while Li is locked into #5.