Men
There are really 3 men who win this tournament: Djokovic, Federer, and Murray. Djokovic received a massive boon from the draw by getting Ferrer in his half, who by the way also received a massive boon by getting Tipsarevic in his quarter. I'm going to have a hard time believing the top 4 seeds won't all make the semis, I mean which of these upsets are you going to pick: Berdych over Djokovic, Del Potro over Murray, Tsonga over Federer, Tipsarevic over Ferrer? Murray and Federer would be most likely to lose but that's still a small chance and I'll have to see it before I predict it. I'm going to come out say the final will be Djokovic over Murray in straight sets. Djokovic should have a relatively easy time vanquishing Ferrer or whoever in the semis while Murray likely goes through Federer, if he even does? If Federer manages to reach the final, will his "undefeated in major finals against players not named Nadal" come into play, or is it just a statistic?
Outside of these men, what is there really to discuss? There is a decent chance the top 8 seeds make the quarters (Almagro is the other top 16 player in Tipsarevic's eighth). The pyramid structure of men's tennis is crazy at the moment. We're waiting for anyone to break through. I will mention Gasquet at 9, who won in Doha, upsetting Tsonga and getting his shot at Federer. Raonic could see Federer in the 4th round, and even Tomic who just won his first career title, would play Federer in round 3. It's going to be a tough row to hoe for Federer, should the seeds hold? Such is men's tennis now that there are only 2 first time seeds: 24) Jerzy Janowicz (POL) and 27) Martin Klizan (SVK)
Women
We could expect more lower ranked or newer players going deeper in the tournament on the women's side, but I doubt we will be seeing a new champion at all. In fact, my money is on a 5-time Aussie Open champion. I think there are two women in the draw who can legitimately be Serena (as opposed to her throwing in a clunker). One, Azarenka, has a bit of a question mark after withdrawing from Brisbane right before her match with Serena. The other is Li, who has started the season well with a win in Shenzhen and a semi loss in Radwanska in Sydney. I will be mildly surprised if Serena doesn't win this title, but shocked if someone about those 3 women were to triumph.
Sharapova comes in injured, but if she were somehow to avoid Serena, she has a small hope. Others who come in playing well are Radwanska and Kerber. Radwanska playing well is an understatement. She hasn't lost yet in 2013 and just won Sydney by double bageling Cibulkova. Kerber is back on the rise (l. to Cibulkova in Sydney) after a slump at the end of 2012. Beyond the 6 ladies I've mentioned, it would be at least a small surprise to see anyone else in the semis. Kvitova has been playing awful, Stosur always in bad at the Aussie Open, Errani has probably hit her ceiling, though she made the quarters last year, and she is in Serena's quarter. The others are inconsistent. What I wouldn't be surprised with is almost anyone in the top 50 making the quarters. Names I'll throw out there are Venus Williams, Kuznetsova, Pavlyuchenkova, Cibulkova, and Stephens. And while the men had only two first time seeds, the volatility in the women's game at the moment from places 10-50 is evidenced by three first time seeds: 26) Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE), 29) Sloane Stephens (USA), and 31) Urszula Radwanska (POL). And there are others who haven't been seeded many times before or it's been awhile since their lasting seeding, such as Wickmayer, Zakopalova, Cirstea, Shvedova, Paszek, and Barthel. The younger women are more upwardly mobile now than the younger men are.
Americans
The prospects are not good for the American men with 3 of their top 4 ranked players (Isner, Fish, Roddick) missing the tournament because of injury or retired. Querrey is the #20 seed and has a decent draw but Djokovic would be his fourth round match so it is doubtful he'll reach the quarters. There are just 4 Americans in the main draw: Harrison, Baker, Russell, and wildcard Rhyne Williams. There are still 5 additional men alive in qualifying: Young, Smyczek, Yani, and Johnson and Sweeting who play each other. The prospects aren't great for many even making the 3rd round when you consider Baker would meet Querrey in round 2 and Harrison should meet Djokovic in the same round.
Even outside the Williams sisters, the American women have a brighter future, if only for sheer volume if not quality. There are 11 women in the main draw including 4 seeds: #3 Serena, #21 Lepchenko, #24 Venus, #29 Stephens, McHale, King, Hampton, Davis, Oudin, Vandeweghe, and wildcard Keys with only Riske still alive in qualifying. Serena obviously is the favorite to win the event while Venus could crash and burn in round 1 or make the semis. Stephens, Hampton, and Davis have all been playing great recently. There is a mixture of good and bad draws between the younger players, while Venus could meet Sharapova in round 3. Several of the bunch should win their first round match and I would except maybe 5-6 to reach round 3, then it's about match ups. Stephens would be a dark horse to reach the quarters which leaves a chance of getting 3 Americans that far. We'll see how many of these promising youngsters can make some noise at a major.
Battle for no. 1
Djokovic leads Federer by over 2600 points in the ATP rankings so when you take away last year's Aussie Open points he leads by around 1300 points. The only way Federer could steal no. 1 is by winning the title while Djokovic loses before the semis.
Here are the WTA rankings with last year's Aussie Open points stripped:
Azarenka - 8595
Sharapova - 8645
Serena - 9470
Radwanska trails by another 2000 points so any of these women can reach no. 1. Serena would clinch no. 1 by reaching the final. Sharapova or Azarenka will be ahead of the other by going farther in the draw, and then there are multiple scenarios to work out if Serena were to lose early, which we will monitor if that happens.
Other Info
You may be used to some information I like to provide at the beginning of tournaments and especially majors so I will close this preview post by providing that info.
Men
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Defending finalist: Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Semifinalists: Roger Federer (SUI), Andy Murray (GBR)
Quarterfinalists: Tomas Berdych (CZE), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), David Ferrer (ESP), Kei Nishikori (JPN) - Nishikori may be the only one hard pressed to get back to the quarters
Previous champions in the draw: Federer ('04,'06,'07,'10), Djokovic ('08,'11,'12)
Junior champions in the draw: Janko Tipsarevic (SRB) ('01), Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) ('03), Gael Monfils (FRA) ('04), Donald Young (USA) ('05), Bernard Tomic (AUS) ('08), Luke Saville (AUS) ('12) - this a low number of junior champs to be in a slam's main draw
Women
Defending champion: Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Defending finalist: Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Semifinalists: Kim Clijsters (BEL), Petra Kvitova (CZE)
Quarterfinalists: Sara Errani (ITA), Ekaterina Makarova (RUS), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Caroline Woznaicki (DEN) - Errani/Wozniacki could play in the 4th round, but I wouldn't be shocked to any of those back in the quarters
Previous champions in the draw: Serena Williams (USA) ('03,'05,'07,'09,'10), Sharapova ('08), Azarenka ('12)
Junior champions in the draw: Mirjana Lucic (CRO) ('97), Jelena Jankovic (SRB) ('01), Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (CZE) ('02,'03), Shahar Peer (ISR) ('04), Azarenka ('05), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) ('06,'07), Arantxa Rus (NED) ('08), Ksenia Pervak (KAZ) ('09), Karolina Pliskova (CZE) ('10)
Draw quarters:
Men - Djokovic/Berdych vs Ferrer/Tipsarevic, Murray/Del Potro vs Federer/Tsonga
Women - Azarenka/Errani vs Serena/Kvitova, Radwanska/Li vs Sharapova/Kerber
Bring on the tennis!!!
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