Davis Cup First Round Preview

The 2013 Davis Cup kicks off Friday through Sunday with first round play in the World Group and Zonal Groups I and II.  I did a bit of a preview of the Davis Cup season here, but now I'll break down the matchups for this weekend.

World Group

Spain at Canada:  Nadal and Ferrer are missing this tie which means Almagro and either Granollers or Ramos will play singles.  This means they are ripe for an upset and I like Raonic's chances to win 2 matches. Not sure Canada will get much from Pospisil which means the tie could come down to the doubles with Nestor/? going against Granollers/M.Lopez.  I'm going to call a stunning upset here as Almagro plunges further into Davis Cup infamy.  CAN 3 ESP 1

Croatia at Italy:  Except for Seppi, the Italians have looked awful in 2013 but they will be at home either way.  Cilic and Dodig are playing for Croatia, but somehow I think the home side will squeak through with Fognini beating Dodig in a live 5th rubber.  ITA 3 CRO 2

Serbia at Belgium:  Apparently Djokovic is going to show up, but I'm not sure the Serbs will even need him.  Goffin is rising but he'll need help to deal with Serbia's two top 10 players and doubles specialist.  The tough draws for the Belgians continue.  SRB 3 BEL 0

Brazil at United States:  The USA finally gets a home tie, and they also get another first round South American opponent.  Both are good things to see the Americans progress.  The only way they run into trouble is if Isner is still recovering from his knee injury and isn't good, losing both his matches.  But still, I expect Querrey to clean up in the 5th in that rare possibility.  Brazil will throw out a decent doubles team in Melo/Soares but these are the Bryans we're talking about.  USA 3 BRA 0

Israel at France:  You've got to give Israel props for getting back to the world group, but how many French are ranked ahead of Sela?  I'll expect a good doubles match in this one as Benneteau/Llodra counters Erlich/Ram but Tsonga and Gasquet will be too much for Sela and the rising Weintraub.  FRA 3 ISR 0

Germany at Argentina:  Without Del Potro, this could be the tie to watch of the weekend with Kohlschreiber and Mayer battling Monaco and Nalbandian (or whoever else gets run out there by Argentina) plus the wild Argentine fans.  On paper Germany should win but they're on the road and you never know with Nalbandian.  Doubles could be big.  Tough to call but I'll go with ARG 3 GER 1

Austria at Kazakhstan:  So it is Austrians getting the nightmare draw and heading to the ends of the earth to play the Kazakhs, who aren't in great form.  Switzerland went there with Wawrinka leading and got whipped 5-0 2 years ago and Austria doesn't have much to scare me.  I'm going to say Melzer wins one rubber, or maybe the doubles, but I'm giving this one to the home side.  This might be the most mediocre talent in the World Group.  KAZ 3 AUT 1

Czech Republic at Switzerland:  This could have been a blockbuster tie with four 4 top 30 players but Federer goes all high and mighty on us and won't play.  So the Czechs will easily.  I say Wawrinka beats Stepanek, but the Czechs don't lose at doubles.  CZE 3 SUI 1

Europe/Africa Zonal Group I

Slovenia at Poland (winner plays South Africa): With the emergence of Janowicz and Kubot playing alongside plus the doubles team of Fyrstenberg/Matkowski, the Poles are a threat to reach the World Group, but the Slovenes won't be pushovers as Kavcic and Bedene have had a nice start to 2013.  But being at home I do expect Poland to go through relatively easily.  POL 3 SLO 1

Denmark at Romania (winner plays Netherlands): Not a lot of names in this tie as Hanescu hasn't played Davis Cup for a couple years.  But one would think Romania would be able to handle to Danes at home.  ROU 3 DEN 1

Slovakia at Ukraine (winner plays Sweden): The winner of this match essentially gets a pass to the World Group Playoffs because Sweden is an awful team without Soderling.  Ukraine welcomes Dolgopolov to the team alongside Stakhovsky but this isn't an automatic win as Klizan and Lacko are rising in the world and they have doubles help in Mertinak and Polasek.  This could be an underrated tie for the weekend but again I'm going with the home side.  UKR 3 SVK 2

Russia and Great Britain are also in this group but have byes and will play each other in Britain in the next Davis Cup weekend.

Americas Zonal Group I

Dominican Republic at Uruguay (winner plays Colombia): No Pablo Cuevas for Uruguay leaving this tie devoid of tour-level talent.  In the past, the Uruguay has managed to win home ties with mediocre players, so I'll say they work around top 250 player Victor Estrella to advance.  URU 3 DOM 2

Chile and Ecuador are also in this group but have byes and will play each other in Ecuador in the next Davis Cup weekend.

Asia/Oceania Zonal Group I

Australia at Taiwan: Tomic was suspended from the Aussie team but they still Hewitt, Matosevic, Ebden and Guccione while Taiwan is without Lu and Wang.  I expect a romp, even in Taiwan.  AUS 3 TPE 0

China at Uzbekistan: China is getting better at tennis and I'll even give them one point here, but Istomin is here and playing at home and he's by far better than anyone the Chinese have.  UZB 3 CHN 1

South Korea at India: This tie has made the news recently with India having lots of in-fighting so thank goodness they're at home against a very mediocre Korean team.  I'm really don't know much about the players here except Paes will play doubles for India.  Glancing at the rankings, the visitors have the higher ranked singles so I say they seize the opportunity.  KOR 3 IND 1

Indonesia at Japan: Nishikori is not playing for Japan but they won't need him.  Indonesia can just enjoy being in Group I.  JPN 3 INA 0

Europe/Africa Zonal Group II

Finland at Bulgaria: This could have been an intriguing tie with Dimitrov and Nieminen going at it, but the Finnish no. 1 isn't showing up, so Bulgaria should be on cruise control.

Estonia at Ireland: No Niland or Zopp so no comment.

Latvia at Tunisia: A battle between Gulbis and Jaziri in Africa.  I'd like to think the Latvian supporting cast is good enough to get this done behind Gulbis.

Belarus at Monaco: Miryni will play doubles for the visitors but Monaco occasionally has some guys put up a fight at the Monte Carlo.  I'll go ahead and lean toward Belarus.

Hungary at Moldova: I've seen some of the names before (Albot, Fucsovics) but don't know enough to guess an outcome.

Luxembourg at Bosnia & Herzegovina: Muller is not playing for the visitors so I would guess Bosnia to prevail.

Cyprus at Lithuania: Berankis is playing well and is scheduled to be here.  Baghdatis is also playing well but won't, so the home side should rout the Cypriots.

Benin at Portugal: Supposedly the site of this tie was chosen by lot as Benin makes their Group II debut, but for some reason I don't believe Portugal was ever traveling to Porto-Novo on the African Atlantic coast.  Benin is good story but likely not near the talent level of the Sousa brothers and Portugal (Benin has no ranked players).  I'm just hoping they can win double digits games in one rubber.

Americas Zonal Group II

Mexico at Puerto Rico
Barbados at El Salvador
Guatemala at Venezuela
Haiti at Peru

Asia/Oceania Zonal Group II

Lebanon at New Zealand: This tie had to be moved from Lebanon for security reasons
Pakistan at Sri Lanka
Thailand at Kuwait: Thailand ought to be better than this
Syria at Philippines

Enjoy the tennis this weekend.  I'll be back to wrap it all up on Monday or so.