Men
In my opinion, Rafael Nadal is the prohibitive favorite at the French Open though there was that little match in Monte Carlo against Djokovic. Nadal comes in with the winning streak, but he's only played Djokovic once and lost to him. But Djokovic has looked very shaky in Madrid and Rome, losing matches to Dimitrov and Berdych, so I would be surprised to see Djokovic beat Nadal at this point. The draw did Federer a big favor by placing Nadal on the opposite side (although it should be noted that had Murray had withdrawn the Swiss and Spaniard would have been in opposite halves for sure). Federer didn't lose a set in Rome, reaching the final there for the first time since 2006. Nadal and Djokovic are the only players in the draw that have ever beaten Federer at the French Open, so I would be shocked to see the Swiss fail to reach the final. Once there, he can hope he has played himself into form and can give a better accounting of himself that in Rome, but I am afraid we've seen this ending before -- 4 other times in fact. If Djokovic does manage to upset Nadal and get to the final, then we might have a nice tussle and either player will have a decent shot at winning.
Moving down to the second tier of players, where Del Potro also has pulled out, we find Berdych and Tsonga playing well, and also Gasquet and Wawrinka are dangerous, and of course Ferrer is there too. Do any of the top three have a chance of being beaten? Djokovic seems susceptible but Tipsarevic is the highest seed in his quarter. Berdych and Wawrinka have risen up at Masters recently but we're still waiting for them to something at a major. The Big 4 have been too good in the best-of-5 format. If you're looking for some dark horses, I like Dimitrov, Monfils, and Anderson as names to keep an eye on. And that Gasquet/Wawrinka fourth rounder could be good. There are a few seeded men who are returning to ranks of the seeded for the first time in awhile (Chardy, Fognini, Robredo) but we have only two first time seeds: 24) Benoit Paire (FRA) and 26) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL). Both have stepped up their games over the past couple months.
Women
After Serena Williams demolished Sharapova and Azarenka in back-to-back clay finals, there is little doubt who the favorite is on the women's side. The world no. 1 comes in with 24-match winning streak. Now Serena has struggled in the French Open since 2002, notably last year with her first round loss to Razzano. But even prior to that were 8-6 in the 3rd losses to Kuznetsova and Stosur. However, this may be a different Serena, just getting underway what could be an historic season. I don't believe Sharapova or Azarenka will test her in the final, but she have some hiccups along the way if she is going to lose. There are a few names lurking near here which have small potential to give her trouble, like Errani, Kerber, Makarova, and Pavlyuchenkova, but this really may be Serena's year.
If Serena were somehow to stumble along the way to the final, this becomes Sharapova's tournament to lose. She has been amazing on clay the last 2 years and is the defending champion. Azarenka holds a little hope but clay is her worst surface and she's been struggling a bit until reaching the Rome final. The rest of the top 10 has been mostly missing in action, save Errani, over the first part of this year, so that really opens the door for someone to get hot and go deep in this tournament. I am expecting Errani to get to Serena in the semis as Radwanska has been playing awful. This could really be a wild tournament for the women unless some of the top ten can pull it together. Stosur has been playing a little better, but I don't know what we're going to get from Radwanska, Li, and Kvitova. I don't see many of bold names playing well recently, but you could keep an eye on Jankovic, Makarova/Kuznetsova winner, Suarez Navarro, and Cornet as dark horse favorites. There is only one woman seeded for the first time at this event: 21) Kirsten Flipkens (BEL).
Americans
The lower ranked American men had a tremendous qualifying, with Kudla, Sock, and Johnson qualifying and Williams getting in as a lucky loser. They join 18-Querrey, 19-Isner, Russell, Harrison, Blake, and wildcard Kuznetsov in the main draw. Isner and Querrey have decent draws to make some noise in the tournament though Isner has a tough opener against Berlocq. Even with all the qualifying, none of the Americans have a really bad first round matchup. Obviously this is clay and expectations won't be high, but I would expect at least one or two to find their way to the third round and Querrey could potentially have a chance against Simon at that stage, and Isner could get Haas and Tipsarevic if he keeps winning.
Obviously the Americans have the favorite on the women's side, but this is a decently deep group as well with 17-Stephens, 29-Lepchenko, 30-Venus, McHale, Hampton, Keys, Mattek-Sands, Vandeweghe, Oudin, and wild card Rogers plus qualifiers King and Min for 13 representatives in all. However, they didn't get quite as nice a draw as the men. Hampton, Oudin, and Vandeweghe all drew seeds, albeit beatable ones (Safarova, Paszek, and Shvedova). With this women's field, there are plenty of openings to slip through to later rounds without much competition, so Stephens may be disappointed with Cibulkova as her potential third round foe and Venus could meet up with Radwanska again in round 3, though you might fancy her chances there given Aggie's recent results. Lepchenko is near Kerber in the draw but none of the matchups really spells out doomsday. This young group of Yanks should be able to make some noise at this tournament.
Battle for no. 1
There is no drama in regard to the no. 1 ranking at the French Open. Djokovic is well ahead of the field and Nadal cannot gain points since he is the defending champion. If Federer were to win the title, he could into Djokovic's lead but he has big points to defend soon at Wimbledon, the Olympics, and Cincinnati.
Because Serena lost in the first round last year and Sharapova won the title, Serena has the no. 1 ranking locked up through the French Open. It is after the French where her defense of the no. 1 ranking will begin, defending titles at Wimbledon, the Olympics, and the US Open.
Other Info
You may be used to some information I like to provide at the beginning of tournaments and especially majors so I will close this preview post by providing that info.
Men
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Defending finalist: Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Semifinalists: Roger Federer (SUI), David Ferrer (ESP)
Quarterfinalists: Andy Murray (GBR), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Nicolas Almagro (ESP) - It looks like the seeds held for the most part last year, but this year Murray and Del Potro have pulled out but one could see the others getting back to the quarters
Previous champions in the draw: Nadal ('05,'06,'07,'08,'10,'11,'12), Federer ('09)
Junior champions in the draw: Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) ('00), Richard Gasquet (FRA) ('02), Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) ('03), Gael Monfils (FRA) ('04), Marin Cilic (CRO) ('05), Martin Klizan (SVK) ('06) - this is a little unusual compared to the other majors that no junior winner since 2006 is in the top 100.
Women
Defending champion: Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Defending finalist: Sara Errani (ITA)
Semifinalists: Samantha Stosur (AUS), Petra Kvitova (CZE)
Quarterfinalists: Angelique Kerber (GER), Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Yaroslava Shvedova (KAZ) - Wow, I had forgotten how chaotic the WTA was back then as it has steadied out significantly since, although the French is always a little hard to predict. I can see some of these women getting back to the quarters, but some I can equally see going out early -- definitely a mixed bag of players with a lot of question marks surrounding them this year
Previous champions in the draw: Serena Williams (USA) ('02), Ana Ivanovic (SRB) ('08), Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) ('09), Francesca Schiavone (ITA) ('10), Na Li (CHN) ('11), Sharapova ('12)
Junior champions in the draw: Nadia Petrova (RUS) ('98), Lourdes Dominguez Lino (ESP) ('99), Virginie Razzano (FRA) ('00), Kanepi ('01), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) ('06), Alize Cornet (FRA) ('07), Simona Halep (ROU) ('08), Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) ('09), Elina Svitolina (UKR) ('10), Annika Beck (GER) ('12) - there is a missing few years there but the last few years of girls champs have certainly done better than their boys counterparts, and last year's girls champ Beck is ranked no. 62 in the world.
Draw quarters:
Men - Djokovic/Tipsarevic vs Nadal/Gasquet (Wawrinka), Ferrer/Berdych vs Federer/Tsonga
Women - Serena/Kerber vs Radwanska/Errani, Azarenka/Li vs Sharapova/Kvitova
Bring on the tennis!!!
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