Rome Quarterfinals

While Madrid had plenty of upsets in the early going, the favorites have played much better in Rome, especially on the men's side.  Five of the top 6 men have reached the quarterfinals and the top 3 women remain in the draw along with two other seeds.  However, we have still had upsets as 3 unseeded players remain in both draws.  Unfortunately, these unseeded players are all in the same halves so Serena and Federer have easy path to the final.  If Nadal is going to defend his title, he will likely need to pass through Ferrer, Djokovic, and Federer, which would be quite a feat.

Here are the remaining players:

Men
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB)
2) Roger Federer (SUI)
4) David Ferrer (ESP)
5) Rafael Nadal (ESP)
6) Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Jerzy Janowicz (POL)
Benoit Paire (FRA)
Marcel Granollers (ESP)

-Five of the quarterfinals from 2012 remain, and they are the 5 remaining seeded players
-Other 2012 quarterfinalists were Tsonga and Gasquet, which were beaten by Janowicz in back-to-back matches, and Seppi, who disappointed the home crowd this an early exit
-Ferrer, Nadal, and Berdych made the quarterfinals at both clay events this year.
-Granollers and Janowicz are in their 2nd Masters quarterfinal each but Paire has reached this stage for the first time and is breaking out this year.
-For the second consecutive tournament, there are 3 Spaniards still in the draw along with players from 5 other countries.
-Federer is now assured of leaving Rome with the no. 3 ranking, while Nadal can get to no. 4 if he wins the title.  Granollers' and Paire's performance likely earns them seeds in Paris (33 and 31 right now).

Women
1) Serena Williams (USA)
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS)
3) Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
7) Sara Errani (ITA)
9) Samantha Stosur (CZE)
Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP)
Q) Simona Halep (ROU)

-For the second consecutive tournament, Serena and Sharapova are the only two remaining quarterfinalists from the 2012 edition.
-Other 2012 quarterfinalists were Li, Kvitova, and Cibulkova who lost today, Venus and Pennetta who lost early, and Kerber who pulled out.
-Serena, Sharapova, and Errani made the quarters at both Madrid and Rome this year.
-I had my eye on Halep a year or two ago, but she never took her game to the next level, until maybe now?  This is her first WTA Tier I quarterfinal.  She beat Kuznetsova, Radwanska, and Vinci to reach the quarters, so this was no fluke.
-Jankovic and Suarez Navarro have both experienced some nice results this season, and their success continues.

Even with the tough road to the final for Nadal, I think he is the favorite still to win the tournament.  Federer will likely be waiting the final and may have as good a chance as any to win in Rome.  He has won all the other Masters except Monte Carlo.  However, Nadal did just go through a 2 hour plus match against Gulbis where he dropped the first set.  Federer has lost only 6 games in this tournament and Djokovic has also looked good, so I think it is conceivable with any one of three prevail.  Either Granollers or Paire will reach a Masters semi and collect the accompanying points.

Also worth mentioning here is Murray pulled out of her match with Granollers, oddly after winning the 2nd set tiebreaker, and is in doubt for the French Open.  Del Potro, returning from some time off, lost to Paire in the 3rd round.

With her draw, Serena should be lock to reach the final and will likely face Sharapova again, although Stosur and Azarenka (and even Errani) are still in her quarter.  Rome has a better surface for Sharapova against Serena than Madrid but she's likely going to play 3 tough matches in a row.  So Serena is my bet to win this tournament, but I won't be shocked if she doesn't.  She can drop clunkers at any time on clay.

American Play
If you thought the American men played poorly in Madrid, they did even worse in Rome.  Querrey and Isner both dropped their first match, to Gasquet and Istomin.

The women have had a pretty good tournament with a 7-6 record.  Two wins belong to Serena but Stephens also snapped out of her funk to win two.  Oudin qualified and upset Makarova and Lepchenko and McHale each won a match.  Venus and q-Burdette were the two first round losers.

Third set tiebreaks
Men: Chardy def. Lopez (R1), Paire def. Benneteau (R2)
Women: Jovanovski def. 10-Wozniacki (R1), Suarez Navarro def. 11-Petrova (R1)

Tomorrow's quarterfinals
Djokovic vs Berdych
Ferrer vs Nadal
Paire vs Granollers
Federer vs Janowicz

Serena vs Suarez Navarro
Jankovic vs Halep
Azarenka vs Stosur
Sharapova vs Errani