Men
After a tremendous summer, Nadal will try and sweep the important titles after winning in Canada and Cincinnati. The last two men to win both those events ('98 Agassi and '03 Roddick) went on to win the US Open. As much as doubt as I have had in the past of Nadal's hard court ability and his lost sets here and there recently, he is my pick to win the title. Murray would be my second favorite and has been drawn into Djokovic's half, but he has not looked good through the summer so far. We may be about to find out if the preceding tournaments really mean anything. Djokovic has also not looked good and seems to be fading since he loss to Murray in the Wimbledon final. I will only put him a very small notch above Del Potro and Federer in regards to the possibility of him winning this title. I don't see anyone beyond those 5 winning it at all. Federer would need to go through Nadal, Murray, and Del Potro/Djokovic to win, and the Argentine's game keeps building and I wonder if he isn't poised to at least make a final soon.
Ferrer and Gasquet have been drawn into the same quarter, leaving open a huge opportunity for a lesser known player to make a name for himself, much like Janowicz at Wimbledon. Ferrer is the obvious choice to make the semis but he has struggled recently. Raonic and Gulbis are names that come to mind there that could have success. For the second consecutive major, there are no new men's seeds though there are a few who haven't been seeded in ages like Verdasco, Tursunov, and Lopez.
Women
This is a 2-woman race: Serena and Azarenka. They have contested quite a few finals over the past year, and Azarenka won in Doha and Cincinnati but Serena won the US Open last year. At this point, I would be a little surprised if these didn't make their way back to the final. There are women out there that can beat them, but not only are they few and far between, those women are inconsistent enough that you wonder if they'll even get to the top 2. I am thinking of Radwanska, Li, Kvitova, Stosur and even players like Stephens, Cibulkova, and Lisicki. And actually thinking about it, if I had to pick one of the two to lose prior to the final, I might just pick Serena, because Azarenka hasn't been losing early very often.
If I had to pick a third favorite it would be Li. Radwanska has played some tough matches with Serena but has a mental block against Azarenka (similar to Sharapova's block with Serena). Kvitova has been all over the place and gets broken way too often. Stephens has to be considered too, especially if she could somehow beat Serena. There's also a dark horse near Errani and then Wozniacki in the draw: former champion Kuznetsova (though has played very poor since the French Open, her game usually rises at the majors). Unlike the men, there are 4 first time seeds in the women's draw: #21 Halep, #23 Hampton, #29 Rybarikova, and #30 Robson. Laura is the first British woman seeded at major since '87.
Americans
(qualifying not finished yet)
Fourteen Americans are in the main draw, which is the most in awhile (there are alot of them hovering between 80-100 in the rankings): #13 Isner, #26 Querrey, Blake, Sock, Harrison, Johnson, Ram, Russell, Kudla, Baker, Williams, Smyczek, Klahn, and Altamirano. As a group they have a chance to really make some noise during the first week as only 3 of the 12 unseeded men have drawn a seed: Russell vs #8 Gasquet, Altamirano vs #22 Kohlschreiber, Harrison vs #2 Nadal. (The tough draws continue for Harrison). A few of them play qualifiers. Win that one, and the see what happens and who's across the net. Isner has a potential 3rd rounder vs Kohlschreiber for the right to play Nadal. So the fourth round may be his ceiling, but he did give all he could handle last week. Querrey got a nice opening rounds for someone who is struggling a bit (though still alive in the Winston-Salem draw) but then he will likely play Federer in the third round. So shall we pencil in an Isner/Querrey quarterfinal tussle? I think 13 wins for this bunch would be a success (half the unseeded's win their opening match and two win another, Querrey reaches the 3rd round and loses to Federer, and Isner reaches the 4th round at gives Nadal another good match but loses in 4.)
Not to be outdone by the men, there are fully 16 women (1/8 of the draw) in the main draw: #1 Serena, #15 Stephens, #23 Hampton, Venus, Lepchenko, Mattek-Sands, Keys, McHale, Riske, Burdette, Davis, Rogers, Gibbs, King, Sanchez, and Vickery with possibly some qualifiers still to come. The draw wasn't quite a kind to the women as 5 of the unseeded 13 will play a seed to begin with: Venus vs #13 Flipkens, Davis vs #18 Suarez Navarro, King vs #25 Kanepi, Keys vs #9 Jankovic, Burdette vs #27 Kuznetsova. Also the three seeded Americans are in the same section of the draw, meaning we could have a Stephens/Hampton third round match where the winner would play Serena. Depending on how well Serena does, I would like see the American women get 16-18 wins (six opening round wins for the unseeded players with two of those advancing, and in the American quarter all three knocking each other out). If Venus is somehow able to upset Flipkens, she's got room to move up. The other seed near her is Suarez Navarro and this is Kerber's eighth of the draw.
And in case you're wondering, Collin Altamirano and Sachia Vickery were awarded wildcards for winning their respective under-18 championships. Nicole Gibbs won the NCAA singles title. (The men's title was not won by an American.)
Battle for no. 1
Once the points for the '12 US Open are stripped away, Djokovic leads Nadal by 930 points. So if Djokovic reaches the final he is assured of being no. 1. Nadal can get to no. 1 if he wins the final over someone other than Djokovic, or if he reaches the final and Djokovic fails to get to the quarters.
Serena is assured of the no. 1 ranking through the US Open as leads Azarenka by 2700 points and Sharapova by 3500 points. Sharapova will stay no. 3 unless Radwanska wins the title.
Other Info
You may be used to some information I like to provide at the beginning of tournaments and especially majors so I will close this preview post by providing that info.
Men
Defending champion: Andy Murray (GBR)
Defending finalist: Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Semifinalists: David Ferrer (ESP), Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Quarterfinalists: Roger Federer (SUI), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Janko Tipsarevic (SRB), Marin Cilic (CRO) - Tipsarevic has been playing poorly and Cilic will miss the tournament, but it is easy to see all the other six in the quarters.
Previous champions in the draw: Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) ('01), Federer ('04,'05,'06,'07,'08), Del Potro ('09), Nadal ('10), Djokovic ('11), Murray ('12)
Junior champions in the draw: Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) ('99), Gilles Muller (LUX) ('01), Richard Gasquet (FRA) ('02), Murray ('04), Ricardas Berankis (LTU) ('07), Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) ('08), Bernard Tomic (AUS) ('09), Jack Sock (USA) ('10) - Not the best list of names when you consider how many years are missing, though Roddick and Tsonga are also recent champions.
Women
Defending champion: Serena Williams (USA)
Defending finalist: Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Semifinalists: Maria Sharapova (RUS), Sara Errani (ITA)
Quarterfinalists: Marion Bartoli (FRA), Samantha Stosur (AUS), Roberta Vinci (ITA), Ana Ivanovic (SRB) - Not a ton of surprises last year, at least to the quarterfinal stage. Sharapova has pulled out and Bartoli has retired, but I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the others in the quarters.
Previous champions in the draw: Serena ('99,'02,'08,'12), Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) ('04), Sharapova ('06), Stosur ('11)
Junior champions in the draw: Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO) ('96), Maria Kirilenko (RUS) ('02), Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) ('03), Azarenka ('05), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) ('06), Coco Vandeweghe (USA) ('08), Heather Watson (GBR) ('09), Daria Gavrilova (KAZ) ('10), Grace Min (USA) ('11), - not huge success on the senior level for the women either. But of note, Vandeweghe, Gavrilova, and Min are battling in qualifying.
Draw quarters:
Men - Djokovic/Del Potro vs Murray/Berdych, Ferrer/Gasquet vs Nadal/Federer
Women - Serena/Kerber vs Radwanska/Li, Errani/Wozniacki vs Azarenka/Kvitova
(the women's draw quarters are identical to Wimbledon except that Wozniacki is substituted for Sharapova)
(the women's draw quarters are identical to Wimbledon except that Wozniacki is substituted for Sharapova)
Bring on the tennis!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment