Asian Preview

The women have begun their Asian swing in earnest this week as the tournament is Tokyo kicked off, to be followed shortly by Beijing.  Then the week following that the men play their Masters event in Shanghai.  This is always a different time of the year since the majors have all concluded and the season doesn't necessarily lead anywhere.  But it still can contain some good tennis, and the second tier players will be jockeying for inclusion in each tour's year end championships.  And often one of those players goes on a run, putting up some big results.

This year, the men will be without Murray, who often plays well in Asia, especially in Shanghai, where he has made the last two finals, winning one.  I am also intrigued to see how Nadal will play after his amazing year so far, as his level often drops precipitously during the fall season.

On the women's side, will Serena and Azarenka be able maintain their dominance over the tour in these final Tier I events of the year?  In the past, players like Radwanska, Wozniacki, and Petrova have done damage.  So it is sort of a clean slate, another opportunity, to play good tennis, win money and ranking points.

Here are players defending the big ranking points over the next 3 weeks:

Tokyo (WTA)

2012 final: Nadia Petrova (RUS) def. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) 6-0 1-6 6-3
Semifinalists: Angelique Kerber (GER), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Quarterfinalists: Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Sara Errani (ITA), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)

Beijing (WTA)

2012 final: Azarenka def. Sharapova 6-3 6-1
Semifinalists: Na Li (CHN), Marion Bartoli (FRA)
Quarterfinalists: Radwanska, Kerber, Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP), Romina Oprandi (SUI)

Defending points in both tournaments:
-Azarenka (QF/W)
-Radwanska (F/QF)
-Sharapova (QF/F)
-Kerber (SF/QF)

Kerber has taken a step back this year and she be hard pressed to defend all these points, so unless she turns her game around, she'll be dropping from the top 10.  Petrova also has not been very good this year so she'll almost assuredly plummet even farther as she defends her Tokyo title (Note - Nadia is injured and is not in the Tokyo draw).  Wozniacki now begins to defend a large portion of points over the last month of the season.  Oprandi was in the quarters in Beijing last year?  That means she's going to really drop unless a miracle occurs.

Also of intrigue is who will make it to Istanbul.  The top 5 are well ahead (Serena, Azarenka, Sharapova, Radwanska, Li) and Errani has a nice cushion.  But is 5 (really 4 with Bartoli's retirement) for the two remaining spots:

-Kvitova 3260
-Bartoli 3173
-Jankovic 3155
-Vinci 3150
-Stephens 3046

Then Kerber, Lisicki, Wozniacki, Halep, Suarez Navarro, and Kirilenko have 2500-2700 points each so a deep run could put them in the mix.

Tokyo (ATP)

2012 final: Novak Djokovic (SRB) def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) 7-6 6-2
Semifinalists: Florian Mayer (GER), Feliciano Lopez (ESP)

Beijing (ATP)

2012 final: Kei Nishikori (JPN) def. Milos Raonic (CAN) 7-6 3-6 6-0
Semifinalists: Andy Murray (GBR), Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)

Shanghai (ATP)

2012 final: Djokovic def. Murray 5-7 7-6 6-3
Semifinalists: Roger Federer (SUI), Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Quarterfinalists: Tsonga, Marin Cilic (CRO), Tommy Haas (GER), Radek Stepanek (CZE)

We're still a few weeks out from this tournament, but Federer (if he plays) would do well to defend his points here.  Murray will likely fall behind at least Ferrer by the time the season is over.  Stepanek, though, is probably the one with the most to lose as he is only ranked no. 51 right now.  And Cilic, too, since he is out on the drug suspension.

The men still have more of the season remaining so it is hard to comment much on their race for the world tour finals.  The top 4 are locks to make but with Murray out there is really 5 spots open.  Berdych and Del Potro are looking strong, but then it is 4 men for 3 spots: 2 French and 2 Swiss (Tsonga, Gasquet, Federer, Wawrinka).  Raonic, Haas, and Isner are not too far back and with a strong fall they could move into contention.  But we will know after the conclusion of the Asian swing.