Davis Cup Semis Preview

The Davis Cup semis and World Group playoffs are upon us, meaning ten big ties plus some other important ties at the lower levels.  And so move from the US Open to being scattered around the world to cover an exciting weekend of Davis Cup.

World Group Semis

Canada at Serbia:  If ever there was a chance to pull an upset, this might possibly be it.  Raonic and Pospisil are flying high after meeting in the Rogers Cup semis, while Serbia is without Troicki, Tipsarevic is not in good form, and Djokovic has to be fatigued after his US Open exploits.  The tie is in Serbia on clay though.  We'll also see Nestor vs Zimonjic in doubles.  This is really tough to call but I'm going Tipsarevic digs in against Pospisil (who may not be ready for this stage) in a live 5th rubber after Djokovic guts out a win over Raonic.  I think Canada can win the doubles.  SRB 3 CAN 2

Argentina at Czech Republic:  The big news here is that Del Potro and Nalbandian will both miss this tie so a win for visitors, bringing in Berlocq and Zeballos, would be a major coup.  I don't think Monaco will be able to keep up with Berdych indoors on a hard court, and we all know about the invincibility of the Berdych/Stepanek doubles pairing.  I think the Czech no. 1 wins 3 points to given the home side a chance to defend their title.  CZE 3 ARG 1

World Group Playoffs
Winners join the above teams plus France, Italy, Kazakhstan, and USA in the World Group for 2014 while the losers head back to the zones.

Ukraine at Spain:  Any hope Ukraine may have had vanished when Nadal decided to play.  Dolgopolov will play alongside Stakhovsky but against Spain in Spain, there is no hope.  And at this point, Robredo is in better form than Dolgopolov anyway.  ESP 3 UKR 0

Austria at Netherlands:  This could shape up to be one of the better ties of the weekend as Melzer leads the Austrians against a deep Dutch team of Haase, Huta Galung, de Bakker, and Rojer for the doubles.  Austria has good doubles but Haider-Maurer may be the weak link.  I see this going 5 to the home side, with former boys' Wimbledon champ de Bakker the hero.  NED 3 AUT 2

Great Britain at Croatia:  The Croats are without Cilic and Karlovic, leaving Dodig and Veic to lead the team which also includes new boys' US Open champ Coric.  Murray plans to play and Evans is a bit of a Davis Cup star, despite his ranking.  I don't that this even gets to a live 5th rubber because I don't know that Croatia can win the doubles.  This would snap two long streaks:  the Brits being out the World Group and the Croats being in it.  GBR 3 CRO 1

Ecuador at Switzerland:  I thought Federer might show up for this but he's not on the roster.  But even without him, Wawrinka and Chiudinelli shouldn't have much trouble against a team that surprised to get this far in Ecuador, which is led by world no. 295 Compazano.  SUI 3 ECU 0

Brazil at Germany:  Kohlschreiber and Mayer will be leading a German team without Haas to face Bellucci and Dutra Silva.  Brazil is often feisty in these playoffs but doesn't often win them.  Melo/Soares beat the Bryans in February, but even if they win Bellucci will likely need 2 wins.  I don't think he'll get them and Mayer (or Brands) will take care of Dutra Silva in a live 5th rubber.  GER 3 BRA 2

Australia at Poland:  Janowicz has pulled out of this tie, meaning Przysiezny will play alongside Kubot against Tomic and Matosevic or Hewitt.  This means Australia should be able to finally break their World Group Playoffs losing streak.  Fyrstenberg/Matkowski against Hewitt/Guccione could be a good doubles match but it is tough to Poland contending in this tie without Janowicz.  AUS 3 POL 1

Israel at Belgium:  Goffin has just pulled out injured, making this a more even tie as Israel is always punching above their weight in Davis Cup.  So it will likely be Darcis (def. Nadal at Wimbledon) and Rochus against Sela and Weintraub.  Israel has a solid doubles team with Erlich/Ram so I'm tempted to pick an upset but I think at home the Belgian singles players will get it done.  BEL 3 ISR 1

Colombia at Japan:  It always is problematic for teams to travel to Japan for Davis Cup but the Japanese players are not in great form (Nishikori lost his opening match at the US Open) so I'm not quite sure what to expect.  Giraldo and Falla have also been up and down this year, so I'm going to tip the home side.  If Colombia can win the doubles they'll have a shot but I'm not betting on it.  JPN 3 COL 1

Zonal Group I Relegation Playoff Ties

Europe/Africa:

South Africa at Slovenia (loser plays Russia in relegation tie):  South Africa plays without Anderson, as usual, and with deVoest their only player in top 200, they stand little chance against Zemlja and Kavcic.  I will give the visitors a point in the doubles.  SLO 3 RSA 1

Sweden at Slovakia (loser plays Denmark in relegation tie):  Sweden has been totally punchless since Soderling disappeared from tennis.  Their doubles team should ensure they aren't swept though.  Klizan and Lacko should keep the Slovaks in Group I.  SVK 3 SWE 1

Americas:

Dominican Republic at Chile (loser relegated to Group II for 2014):  I am a fan of the Dominican no. 1 Estrella but winning at Chile is a tough ask.  The Chileans are rebuilding (upset by Ecuador earlier this year) but still Capdeville and boys French Open champion Garin should be too much.  CHI 3 DOM 1

Asia/Pacific:

Indonesia at Taiwan (loser relegated to Group II for 2014): Taiwan is without Lu and Wang but still should have more than enough firepower to send Indonesia straight back to Group II.  The Indonesian no. 1 Rungkat is ranked no. 505.

Zonal Group II Promotion Playoff Ties
Winners promoted to Group I for 2014

Europe/Africa:

Finland at Latvia:  It is a real shame Nieminen is not scheduled to play for the Finns, this had the potential to be an intriguing tie.  Gulbis is there for Latvia, so he ought to be able to send the hosts through with world no. 470 as his wingman, who outranks all the Finns.  LAT 3 FIN 1

Portugal at Moldova:  The fact the Moldova got this far in the group is pretty amazing, defeating Hungary and Bosnia, teams with good young talent, but one would think the road has to end here.  With Gil and Sousa boys, Portugal really ought to be in Group I.  I will be generous and give Moldova a point for being at home and on a hard court.  POR 3 MDA 1

Americas:  Venezuela at El Salvador

Asia/Pacific:  New Zealand at Philippines

Also, Asia/Pacific Zonal Groups III and IV are being played this week in Dubai.

Group III
Pool A: Hong Kong, Iran, Malaysia, Oman
Pool B: Cambodia, Pacific Oceania, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam

Group IV
Pool A: Bahrain, Bangladesh, Iraq, Singapore, Turkmenistan
Pool B: Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

I'll recap the weekend probably on Monday and we'll know the finalists and the groups for 2014.