Istanbul Preview

The top players on the WTA begin their final tournament of the year, the year end championships (YEC) tomorrow, in its final year, in Istanbul, Turkey.  So here is my preview, beginning with the eight participants with their points this week and some stats.

1) Serena Williams (USA) - 12,040 - 8th YEC appearance ('01,'02,'04,'07-'09,'12), 21-5, best result '01,'09,'12 W (she hasn't lost at the event since '08) - 10 titles this year including the French and US Opens, 73-4 record
2) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 7676 - 5th YEC appearance ('09-'12), 7-8 record, best result '11 F - 3 titles this year including the Aussie Open, 42-7 record
4) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 5890 - 3nd YEC appearance ('11,'12 + alternate in '08,'09), 5-4 record, best result SF in '12 - 3 titles this year, 56-16 record
5) Na Li (CHN) - 5120 - 3rd YEC appearance ('11,'12), 2-4 record, best result 1-2 in RR both years - 1 title this year, 40-13 record

6) Petra Kvitova (CZE) - 4370 - 3rd YEC appearance ('11,'12), 5-1 record, best result '11 W - 2 titles this year, 49-21 record
7) Sara Errani (ITA) - 4190 - 2nd YEC appearance ('12), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '12 RR - 1 title this year, 46-22 record
8) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) - 5th YEC appearance ('07-'10), 4-10 record, best result SF in '08,'09 - 1 title this year, 45-18 record

9) Angelique Kerber (GER) - 3715 - 2nd YEC appearance ('12), 0-3 record, best result 0-3 in '12 RR - 1 title this year, 44-21 record

3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - withdrew

The red group appears to be much more difficult as it includes Serena, Radwanska, Kvitova, and Kerber, all of which are more or less in form.  The white group will be Azarenka, Li, Errani, and Jankovic, which is wide open given the poor of Azarenka and Errani recently.  Serena locked up the world no. 1 ranking long ago, so that will not be a story here.  Radwanska only trails Sharapova by 1 point so she will return to no. 3 if she plays a match.  Li could also overtake Sharapova with a good result, and the 6-9 rankings are totally in flux.

Looking through the stats, I was surprised to see how the close the records of the participants matched those from last year.  The titles for each are down but that is because Serena won everything.  The field is the same as 2012 except that Jankovic is playing rather than Sharapova.

As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:

-Australian Open:  Victoria Azarenka
-French Open:  Serena Williams
-Wimbledon:  Marion Bartoli
-US Open:  Serena Williams

-Doha:  Victoria Azarenka
-Indian Wells:  Maria Sharapova
-Miami:  Serena Williams
-Madrid:  Serena Williams
-Rome:  Serena Williams
-Toronto:  Serena Williams
-Cincinatti:  Victoria Azarenka
-Tokyo:  Petra Kvitova
-Beijing:  Serena Williams

It would be a stunning upset if Serena does not win this tournament, especially once the came out the dangerous players of the moment all in Serena's group.  The American would likely need to be beaten twice to be eliminated and how is that going to happen?  I imagine Kvitova and Radwanska are the second-most dangerous players and winner of their match likely gets to the semifinals with a chance to rematch against Serena.  Kerber, though, could throw a wrench into their plans with an upset.  I like Serena and Radwanska to advance.

In the white group, we all wonder if Azarenka is going be healthy and in decent form.  I don't think she will be and Errani very rarely beats any top player, I think Li and Jankovic will advance in some order. The Serb is in form at the moment.  If those are indeed the four players in the semis, I think Radwanska and Serena will rematch and Serena will win.  Even if Azarenka make the semis, I don't think she can beat Serena at this point, and the American will consolidate her amazing season.