London Preview

The top eight tennis players in the world (well, actually 8 of the top 9) begin play in the world tour finals today in London.  Given his recent form, Djokovic is the favorite to win the event but Nadal is highly motivated to finally win this event, and certainly was the best player on tour for the majority of the year.  There are a couple others, Federer and Del Potro come to mind, that could be threats as well especially if one of the top two stumble.  Here are the eight participants with their points this week and some stats.

1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 12,030 - 6th WTF appearance ('06,'07,'09-'11), 9-10 record, best '10 F - 10 titles this year including the French and US Opens, 71-6 record
2) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 10,610 - 7th WTF appearance ('07-'12), 14-9 record, best result '08,'12 W - 6 titles this year including the Australian Open, 67-9 record
3) David Ferrer (ESP) - 5800 - 5th WTF appearance ('07,'10-'12), 8-7 record, best result '07 F - 2 titles this year, 60-21 record
4) Andy Murray (GBR) - 5790 - withdrew with injury - 4 titles this year including Wimbledon, 43-8 record
5) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) - 5055 - 4th WTF appearance ('08,'09,'12), 6-6 record, best result '09 F - 4 titles this year, 50-14 record
6) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 3980 - 4th WTF appearance ('10-'12), 4-6 record, best result '11 SF - no titles this year, 52-22 record
7) Roger Federer (SUI) - 3805 - 12th WTF appearance ('02-'12), 42-9 record, best result '03,'04,'06,'07,'10,'11 W - 1 title this year, 43-15 record
8) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) - 3330 - 1st WTF appearance - 1 title this year, 49-21 record
9) Richard Gasquet (FRA) - 3300 - 2nd WTF appearance ('07), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '07 RR - 3 titles this year, 50-20 record

Group B appears to be more difficult as it includes Djokovic, Del Potro, Federer, and Gasquet while Group A consists of Nadal, Ferrer, Berdych, and Wawrinka.  Djokovic can still technically wrest the no. 1 ranking from Nadal but it would take the Serb winning the tournament undefeated and Nadal not winning a match.  Other potential ranking battles would Del Potro passing Murray to get to no. 4 (big for Aussie Open), Berdych and Federer playing for no. 6, and Wawrinka and Gasquet battling for no. 8.

As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:

-Australian Open:  Novak Djokovic
-French Open:  Rafael Nadal
-Wimbledon:  Andy Murray
-US Open:  Rafael Nadal

-Indian Wells:  Rafael Nadal
-Miami:  Andy Murray
-Monte Carlo:  Novak Djokovic
-Madrid:  Rafael Nadal
-Rome:  Rafael Nadal
-Toronto:  Rafael Nadal
-Cincinatti:  Rafael Nadal
-Shanghai:  Novak Djokovic
-Paris:  Novak Djokovic

The four men I called in the introduction were not drawn two and two into the groups but instead Djokovic ended up with both Del Potro and Federer while Nadal ought to be able to get out of his group without much difficulty, though he does have Ferrer there, who he just lost to in Paris.  The poor soul of the tournament is Gasquet, who has a mountain ahead of him to avoid going 0-3.  Group A does is without interest though, because Ferrer has a good chance to emerge and both Berdych and Wawrinka are dangerous on a given day.

I think Nadal and Ferrer in some order will advance out of Group A, and while Group B is a tough call I think Federer is motivated and playing well enough to make it out along with Djokovic.  I still like Djokovic to win this title, whether he sees Federer or Nadal on the other side of the net in the final.  I think Nadal would likely will win a Fedal semi, but Federer always plays well in London.  Del Potro could also be a dark horse threat if he can get out of the group stage.

Enjoy the last bit of tennis, before nearly two months of boredom.

I almost have my slam summaries ready for posting, likely some time in the coming week.