2014 Mini-Preview

Here is a brief preview of the 2014 season as well as some of my plans for this year.

Top of the Men's Game

I expect Djokovic and Nadal to continue to battle it out on the game's biggest stages, with Murray perhaps getting his shot a time or two.  I don't know that Nadal will be same monster he was in 2013 but he is certainly a favorite to win every event he enters after his tremendous year on hard courts.  Djokovic rose back up against him toward the end of the year and these two should battle it out for world no. 1 throughout the year.

Murray, now a winner of 2 majors, will contend at times and perhaps win a major but I don't think he'll have the consistency of the other two.  Del Potro and Federer will play more of a spoiler's role and while I think it is possible that one of them could win a major, I think it is unlikely.  Federer should have a better year than last, especially against players ranked below, but I imagine he will continue to struggle against those ranked above him.

It is hard to see anyone else break through with the top of the game the way it is.  I believe Ferrer will take a step back this and possibly fall out of the top 5 as he ages.  Wawrinka, Tsonga, and Berdych may remain top 10 players but it's hard to see any of them taking the next step.  And will we even see any new blood?  Raonic and Isner each reached a Masters final last year, and Janowicz has made steady improvement.  Fognini enjoyed a career year in 2013, but has he reached his ceiling?  As good as the top 4 or 5 are compared to the rest of the tour, there is another clear level occupied by the rest of the top 10 or so, and it is difficult to predict anyone new breaking through.

American Men

The state of the American men's game continues to spiral downward.  There is now only one American in the top 40.  Isner is what he is and while he can make an exciting run here and there, it is hard to see him reaching the World Tour Finals, winning a Masters, or making it past the quarters of a major.  While I'd love to be wrong, he can give anyone a tough match on any given day, but he can lose to almost anyone.

I expect a bounce back from Querrey, currently ranked no. 46, but how far up can he go?  He has been very inconsistent, especially after returning from injury.  There are a number of Americans in the 80 to 150 range including Smyczek, Russell, Young, Klahn, Harrison, Sock, Kudla, Ram, Williams, Kuznetsov, and Johnson.  This is a mix of young talent and journeymen.  I like the rise Smyczek has made over the past year but I'm not sure he can go up much further.  Williams and Johnson seem to have stalled.  Harrison needs new life.  It is good to see Young back in the top 100 but one always wonders where his mind is.  Sock and Kudla are on the rise and I would like to see them make strides this year.  Klahn has seemingly come from nowhere and I really don't know much about him.  There are a few in this group that have some potential, but nothing to be overly excited about, especially for a nation with tennis tradition that the US has.

Top of the Women's Game

Serena, Serena, Serena, and Azarenka.  Some have been talking about Serena winning The Grand Slam this year, and while that's possible I believe she'll trip up at a major or two.  Azarenka is the only player who has been able to challenge her much over the past year.  I would think those two would end up winning all the majors between them.  I'm not sure what else there is to say.

Sharapova has been good off and on over the past couple years, but she never beats Serena and rarely beats Azarenka off of clay.  Radwanska has been very good against the rest of the tour, but struggles against the other three.  Li and Kvitova both have the game to challenge the top tier but are very inconsistent.  Is anyone going to step up and reach major semis consistently and be a clear cut 3 through 6 ranked player.  That top 10-ish of the tour was pretty solid a year ago but over the past few months there has been little consistency behind Serena and Azarenka.

There were a few breakout players a year ago and one wonders if they can get into that top 10 and perhaps even challenge the top tier on occasion.  I think of Halep and all her titles, Stephens and her success at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon, and then some others lower down the rankings.  There appears to be some opportunity for a couple players if they can string to together consistent results for  a few months.

American Women

As bleak as the future looks for the US men, it is strong for the women.  Besides Serena at the top, there are 5 other Americans in the top 50, and 11 total in the top 100.  I mentioned Stephens above, Hampton and Keys both broke out last year, and there are a crop of youngsters behind them, not to mention veterans like King and Mattek-Sands hanging around.  The world may soon become familiar with names like Riske, Davis, Vandeweghe, Min, and Duval just to name a few.  And that's leaving out Lepchenko, McHale, Oudin, and the like who have already had some time in the spotlight.  Of the 24 Americans ranked in the top 200, 17 of them were born in the '90s.

Blog Future

The time I have for running this blog seems to be diminishing.  I am going to try and keep up my stats pages (slam summaries, tournament champs and quarterfinalists, and WTA birth year top 10) since I enjoy that a lot.  I will also keep doing my Davis and Fed Cup previews and recaps.  But my weekly tournament reporting will likely slip some or be briefer, still mulling that over.  We will see when the majors come around, what I'll be able to put up.  And I would like to do some comparisons with all the stats I've compiled, but I'm not sure when that will happen.

Quick Quarterfinalist Stats
-Of the 14 men who reached at least 9 ATP quarterfinals, 12 were ranked in the top 13.  The only missing top 13 member was Raonic (#11, reached 6 but the Rogers Cup final).  #16 Fognini and #19 Simon were the men renamed outside the top 13 that made at least 9 quarters.
-The lowest ranked man to reach 8 quarters was #31 Monfils.
-#42 Monaco had the lowest rank of those to reach 7 quarters.
-Of the 12 women who reached at least 8 WTA quarterfinals, all were ranked in the top 14.  Only Halep (#11, reached 7) and Bartoli (#13, reached 4 but retired in August) are in the top 14 and failed to reach 8 quarters.
-The lowest ranked player to reach 7 quarters was #29 Safarova.
-Beck had by far the lowest rank of those to reach 6 quarters at #58.
-50 different countries had at least one tour quarterfinalist.  Countries with only one quarterfinal reached were Georgia, Montenegro, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia.
-Spaniards reached 110 quarters, the French 84, the Americans 67, the Germans 65, the Russians 64, the Italians 60, and the Czechs 54.
-Spain also led with the number of different players to reach a tour quarterfinal with 24.  The USA was second with 21, France had 19, Russia 17, and Germany 16.