Australian Open: Finals

The 33rd meeting of Roger and Rafa yielding a similar result as Nadal increased his head-to-head record against Federer to 23-10.  Now Nadal faces another Swiss and another one-handed righty backhand, so I imagine Nadal will win rather easily.  Wawrinka outlasted Berdych in 4 sets to reach his first major final.  Another player reaching a first major final is Cibulkova, who blasted Radwanska off the court with a loss of just 3 games for yet another upset in the women's draw.  She'll play Li, who is hoping the third time is the charm in Melbourne as she contested her 3rd final here, losing previously to Clijsters and Azarenka.  I think Li will win this match, simply because of her play over time in Australia but I'm not going to discount the Slovak, who has played an amazing tournament, taking out 2 top 5 players and losing only 1 set.

1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs 8) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)

Nadal - 19th major final (3rd at the AO), 13-5 record (1-1), 2nd consecutive F
Wawrinka - 1st major final

Nadal leads the head-to-head 12-0 and is 26-0 in sets as this will be only their 3rd meeting at a major.  They have played 6 tiebreaks, 2 of which were very long (14-12 at '10 Rogers Cup and 12-10 at '13 Shanghai).  They have met 7 times on hard courts with Nadal winning all 15 sets, including one Aussie Open meeting in '07 where the Spaniard won 6-2 6-2 6-2.

Although Wawrinka is having his best tournament ever, defeating Djokovic in QF, a win here would be a massive upset.  I say Nadal wins in 3, something like 7-5 6-4 6-2.

The men's top 10 is now Nadal, Djokovic, Del Potro (career high rank), Ferrer, Wawrinka (career high rank), Murray, Federer, Berdych, Gasquet, Tsonga.  Wawrinka will move to no. 3 if he should win.  Federer, despite defending his points from last year, falls to no. 7 - passed by his compatriot.

4) Na Li (CHN) def. 20) Dominika Cibulkova (SVK)

Li - 4th major final (3rd at the AO), 1-2 record (0-2), last '13 Aussie Open
Cibulkova - 1st major final

Li leads the head-to-head 4-0 and is 8-1 in sets.  The only set Cibulkova won came on clay ('10 Madrid).  They have met just once on hard courts, a 7-6 6-2 in '13 Rogers Cup, though they did play on carpet at '08 Antwerp.  They have played 2 tiebreaks with Li winning both.

Again, the underdog comes in on the form of her life, but how often do we see these players complete their upset runs.  I think Li is due for this title and I'm not sure the words Cibulkova and major champion belong in the same sentence...yet.  I'm going with Li something like 6-1 7-5.

The women's top 10 is now Serena, Azarenka, Li (ties career high), Radwanska, Sharapova, Kvitova, Errani, Jankovic, Kerber, Halep.  Cibulkova will be no. 13 unless she wins and then she will move past Wozniacki and Ivanovic to no. 11.  Li is locked into no. 3 but a win puts her only 11 points behind Azarenka.