The Australian Open has produced a men's tournament with little to no drama, seeing 7 of the top 8 players in the world backing up their seed to this point while the women's tournament sees 5 double digit seeds alive in the quarterfinals. The 17-time major champion has been eliminated and their have been plenty of good 3-set matches throughout the tournament. While at the beginning of the tournament we foresaw a Rafa/Novak final and a Serena/Vika final, a rematch of last year's final seems the most likely possibility while a meeting between the top two men is still the certainly it once was, especially with Nadal drawing the only non-top 8 seed in the quarters. While the men's event certainly will feature many blockbuster matches, the women's event sees comeback stories, new faces, diminutive players, and other storylines that could still see competitive matches if not the most high quality tennis. Here are final eight in each draw:
Men
1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 21st major quarterfinal (7th at the AO), 16-4 record (3-3), 2nd consecutive QF
2) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 27th major quarterfinal (7th at the AO), 21-5 record (4-2), 19th consecutive QF
3) David Ferrer (ESP) - 14th major quarterfinal (5th at the AO), 6-7 record (2-2), 9th consecutive QF
4) Andy Murray (GBR) - 18th major quarterfinal (5th at the AO), 13-4 record (4-0), 3rd consecutive QF (12th that he has played)
6) Roger Federer (SUI) - 41st major quarterfinal (11th at the AO), 33-7 record (10-0), last '13 French Open
7) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 9th major quarterfinal (4th at the AO), 3-5 record (0-3), last '13 Wimbledon
8) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) - 5th major quarterfinal (2nd at the AO), 1-3 record (0-1), 2nd consecutive QF
22) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) - 1st major quarterfinal
-Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Berdych have all yet to lost a set. Murray and Wawrinka have lost only one, Ferrer has lost two, and Dimitrov has lost three.
-The men have now combined to reach 136 major quarterfinals
-Six different countries are represented. There are two Spaniards and two Swiss.
-Djokovic, Ferrer, Murray, Federer, and Berdych were all in the quarters last year. Those failing to get back here were Almagro (w/d), Chardy (R3 l. to Ferrer), and Tsonga (R4 l. to Federer).
-Del Potro still holds no. 3 in the live rankings. One win by Ferrer or two by Murray will eclipse him. Federer is still back at no. 8 behind Wawrinka and Berdych. Dimitrov has improved to no. 19.
-Third round losses by Querrey (Fognini) and Young (Nishikori) dropped the American men to 5-12, which is not good but not awful considering the contingent.
I still think we are in line for a Nadal/Djokovic final, and the Federer/Murray quarter should be interesting and tough to call. Given recent form, I think Federer may be able to pull it off. Berdych/Ferrer is also a tough match. I am surprised the Spaniard has made it this far in the draw given his recent, but he may be able to take Berdych out. Djokovic will likely find Wawrinka a tougher match than his semi, but he should find a way as he has at the last 2 hard court majors.
Matchups:
-Nadal vs Dimitrov
-Murray vs Federer
-Ferrer vs Berdych
-Djokovic vs Wawrinka
Women
2) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 12th major quarterfinal (4th at the AO), 7-4 record (2-1), 2nd consecutive QF
4) Na Li (CHN) - 10th major quarterfinal (4th at the AO), 5-4 record (3-0), 3rd consecutive QF
5) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 10th major quarterfinal (5th at the AO), 2-7 record (0-4), last '13 Wimbledon
11) Simona Halep (ROU) - 1st major quarterfinal
14) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) - 7th major quarterfinal (2nd at the AO), 3-3 record (1-0), last '12 US Open
20) Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) - 5th major quarterfinal (1st at the AO), 1-3 record, last '12 French Open
28) Flavia Pennetta (ITA) - 5th major quarterfinal (1st at the AO), 1-3 record, 2nd consecutive QF
30) Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) - 1st major quarterfinal
-Azarenka is the only woman to not lose a set. Li, Cibulkova, Pennetta, and Bouchard have each lost one set while Radwanska, Halep, and Ivanovic have each dropped two.
-The women have now combined to reach 51 major quarterfinals
-There are eight different countries represented
-Cibulkova has now reached the quarters at all four majors
-Bouchard is the first Canadian woman to reach a major quarterfinal since the '92 US Open
-Azarenka, Li, and Radwanska were all in the quarters last year. Those failing to get back here but four others came close: Serena (R4 l. to Ivanovic), Sharapova (R4 l. to Cibulkova), Stephens (R4 l. to Azarenka), Makarova (R4 l. to Li), and then also Kuznetsova (R1 l. to Svitolina)
-There are several ranking scenarios available given all the lower ranked players still alive. But for now Li has dropped past Radwanska to no. 5 and will pass her back if she reaches the final. Halep is in the top 10 for now and Ivanovic is up to no. 12. Pennetta and Bouchard are currently at nos. 21 and 23 while Cibulkova is holding on at no. 20 (she lost a bunch of points last week in Sydney).
-There is no American remaining in the draw. Davis and Riske went out in R3 to Bouchard and Kerber, and the Americans went 14-12 in the tournament. Not bad but I would have liked to see more especially since Serena is included in the group. Without Serena they broken even (11-11).
I think an Azarenka/Li matchup is most likely in the final since Radwanska has trouble against Azarenka. Ivanovic should be able to take care of Bouchard to make her first semi in forever and I like Cibulkova to beat Halep in a battle of short people and even give Azarenka a run for her money. My pick to win the tournament at this point is Li, but who knows, anything could happen and nothing is a sure thing really with these players.
Matchups:
-Ivanovic vs Bouchard
-Li vs Pennetta
-Halep vs Cibulkova
-Azarenka vs Radwanska
Monday, January 20, 2014
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