Madrid/Rome Preview

Here is a brief preview of the clay Masters/"Tier I" events which will have the majority of the big names in action, though Azarenka and Djokovic are notably missing the draws.  Here are those defending the big points over the next 2 weeks:

Madrid
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Pablo Andujar (ESP), Sara Errani (ITA), Ana Ivanovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists - David Ferrer (ESP), Andy Murray (GBR), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Kei Nishikori (JPN), Angelique Kerber (GER), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Ekaterina Makarova (RUS), Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP)

Rome
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Roger Federer (SUI)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Benoit Paire (FRA), Simona Halep (ROU), Sara Errani (ITA)
Quarterfinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), David Ferrer (ESP), Jerzy Janowicz (POL), Marcel Granollers (ESP), Jelena Jankovic (SRB), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP), Samantha Stosur (AUS)

Players reaching the quarters at both tournaments last year
-Nadal (W/W)
-Serena (W/W)
-Sharapova (F/QF)
-Errani (SF/SF)
-Ferrer (QF/QF)

There are also names like Andujar, Paire, Medina Garrigues (really?), and Granollers that I was surprised to see here and really have no legitimate shot at defending those points.
-This is where Halep's run to the top 5 began and where she begins defending points.  She'll have a boatload to defend following the French Open.

Nadal and Serena each won both these tournaments last year but both look very much more beatable this year.  Nadal didn't win in Monte Carlo or Barcelona (basically the first time we've ever said that) and we last saw Serena in Charleston, losing to Cepelova.  With Djokovic out at least of Madrid, Nadal is still a decent bet to win at least one of the tournaments, though he doesn't really like Madrid so imagine he won't win there.  That leaves a pretty wide open field for the men with the two Swiss and Ferrer as the top contenders.  If it's not one of them winning, your guess is as good as mine with Murray not in great form and never a big fan of clay.  Is the time right for Tsonga or Berdych to win a big title?  In Rome I think Nadal is still the favorite even if Djokovic shows up.

For the women, who knows?  I would expect Sharapova to be in the mix at one or both tournaments and Serena will likely have a good run or two too.  Radwanska should be a contender and Li will be tough to beat too.  Beyond those four, almost anyone could get hot and win a tournament circa 2010 when Martinez Sanchez and Rezai won these two events.  The top players just aren't as consistent as they were a year ago.  Case in point, Kerber is already out in Madrid.  I would keep an eye out for Kuznetsova, who seems like she may be playing decent tennis again.  It should be an interesting 2 weeks as these 2 tournaments are as wide open as they've been for several years.