Davis Cup Semis/Playoffs Preview

Davis Cup's big weekend is upon.  Two World Group semis and eight World Group Playoff ties plus a smattering of lower level ties which includes Nadal and Ferrer in action for Spain.  Here's my thoughts:

World Group Semifinals

(Hard to believe these 4 nations are left at this stage of the competition with some of the perennial contenders sitting at home or else trying to keep themselves in the World Group.)

Australia at Great Britain: The doubles rubber looms as the Aussies beating Murray in singles would be a massive upset and one would think the British #2 (unknown as this point, either Edmund, Evans, or Ward) would be a big underdog in a live 5th rubber especially in Hewitt comes off the bench to play.  I like Australia in the upset with the soon to retire Hewitt and Groth winning a tight doubles match against the Murray brothers.  AUS 3 GBR 2

Argentina at Belgium: Goffin has been great in Davis Cup this year and one would think Argentina will need to work around him to reach another final.  But this Argentine team has experience, has guys that play doubles together, and those that punch above their weight in Davis Cup (Berlocq, Delbonis).  But the tie isn't in Argentina nor is it on clay.  But I still think the visitors will find a way and beat Darcis and Bemelmens.  ARG 3 BEL 2

World Group Playoffs

Czech Republic at India: The Czechs go on the road to India without Berdych while India welcomes back Bopanna and Paes.  India often plays above their level, especially at home, in Davis Cup but can Devvarman and Bhambri really threaten Vesely and Rosol?  This is a dangerous tie for the Czechs and India probably wins the doubles despite Stepanek's presence, but I don't think they'll be able to go the distance.  Rosol in a live 5th rubber.  CZE 3 IND 2

Netherlands at Switzerland: Unfortunately for the Dutch, Federer and Wawrinka both plan to show up, and also Haase is out.  Rojer is also not on the team, so I'm not sure how you find a way win a single rubber.  SUI 3 NED 0

Italy at Russia: Is Russia on to something by hosting their visitors in Siberia?  After tripping up Spain's C-team from 2-0, this would arguably be a bigger upset versus Seppi and Fognini.  I'm not seeing in happen this time.  Rublev will be a star in time and he may get an upset here but Italy is too deep and strong.  ITA 3 RUS 1

United States at Uzbekistan: A new look USA travels to the middle of nowhere, or close to it, to face off with Istomin and Dustov on clay.  Sock, Querrey, Johnson, and Young make up the US team. Sock has shown off some clay skills this year and will be tough to beat and Johnson/Querrey made the US Open doubles semis.  It will likely be Querrey and singles vs Istomin on day 1 which is the Uzbeks chance to get on the board.  You can foresee a crazy scenario where Istomin wins both his singles and then Dustov somehow upsets Querrey or Young in a live 5th rubber but I think the Americans will come through here with Sock beating Istomin to clinch the tie.  USA 3 UZB 1

Japan at Colombia: This is a tricky tie to call with Nishikori expected to win his two singles.  Japan also generally puts to together a decent doubles team but Cabal/Farah are good for Colombia.  Giraldo should be able to handle Daniel at home on clay but the wild card is the teenaged Nishioka, and with no Falla the Colombian #2 is Gonzalez, who has little Davis Cup experience.  I like Nishioka to come off the bench to beat Gonzalez in a live 5th rubber.  JPN 3 COL 2

Germany at Dominican Republic: The Dominican Republic is bidding to be just the second Caribbean nation (Cuba in '93) to make the World Group behind their late blooming star Estrella Burgos.  This isn't a gimme for Germany but they should be able to find a way behind Kohlschreiber. They've also got Brown, who grew up not far away in Jamaica.  Estrella will need a heroic effort and help from Hernandez and I'm not going to completely rule that but I think he'll succumb to Kohlschreiber after beating Becker or Brown on day 1.  GER 3 DOM 1

Croatia at Brazil: The visiting Croats were dealt a big blow when Cilic pulled out with injury.  So it's to Coric and Dodig versus Bellucci, Souza, and the star doubles team of Melo/Soares.  Still should be a competitive tie but Brazil at home on clay is going to be tough to beat, and despite some previous Davis Cup heroics Coric is only 18.  BRA 3 CRO 1

Slovakia at Poland: This could be another competitive tie with Klizan (SVK) and Janowicz (POL) the only players in the top 100 here.  But Poland is at home and will have a good doubles team with Kubot/Matkowski so I give them the edge.  To win on the road Klizan will need help from Gombos or Martin.  POL 3 SVK 1

Europe/Africa Zonal Group I

Spain at Denmark: (Loser plays Sweden for relegation) I'm curious why Spain's stars decide to show up for this tie but not the many others over the past 3-4 years when they've been the road team versus inferior opponents.  With Nadal, Ferrer, Bautista Agut, and Verdasco versus Nielsen and 3 players ranked outside the top 900, this could be one of the most lopsided ties ever, although with Nielsen there is a small chance Denmark could be competitive in the doubles.  ESP 3 DEN 0

Ukraine at Lithuania: (Loser plays Slovenia for relegation) This tie spells trouble for Ukraine, playing without Dolgopolov and Stakhovsky on the road versus Berankis and his wingman Grigelis.  Marchenko and Molchanov have occasionally featured prominently in Davis Cup and they'll have a chance but I think takes this opportunity and wins all 3 points.  LTU 3 UKR 1

Americas Zonal Group I

Ecuador at Barbados: (Loser plays Uruguay for relegation) Don't know too much about these sides but Barbados is a great story and I think playing at home, King will keep his team in Group I.

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group I

China at Thailand: (Loser relegated)  You'd think China behind Wu and Zheng would cruise to victory.

(Winners promoted in all Group II ties)

Europe/Africa Zonal Group II

Belarus at Portugal: At home and with Sousa, Portugal should have no trouble earning promotion

Hungary at Bulgaria: With Dimitrov not in action, Hungary has the highest ranked player in the tie, Fucsovics but I think Bulgaria has more depth and should advance especially at home with Kutrovsky and Kuzmanov.

Americas Zonal Group II

Venezuela at Chile: Hard to see Chile not winning at home with Jarry and Garin and finally getting back to Group I.

Asia/Pacific Zonal Group II

Taiwan vs Pakistan in Turkey: Even without Wu, Taiwan should be able to advance.  But with Davis Cup stalwarts Khan and Qureshi, that's not a given.