US Open Preview

Fall is fast approaching, and the US Open is right around the corner, before the North American continent gets immersed in American football.  Two solid favorites headline the two fields, but the championship is won on the court and not in the minds of analysts.  I'll get to my thoughts on the contenders, but first, as usual, let's refresh our memories on the big winners from last year.

Champions:  Rafael Nadal (ESP), Kim Clijsters (BEL)
Finalists:  Novak Djokovic (SRB), Vera Zvonareva (RUS)
Semifinalists:  Roger Federer (SUI), Mikhail Youzhny (RUS), Venus Williams (USA), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Quarterfinalists:  Gael Monfils (FRA), Robin Soderling (SWE), Fernando Verdasco (ESP), Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI), Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Francesca Schiavone (ITA), Samantha Stosur (AUS)

Clijsters, the defending champion, and holder of a 21-match win streak at the Open, will miss this year's version due to injury, while our two 2009 champions Del Potro and Serena Williams, are back in the field.  I am guessing the quarterfinalists this year will look a bit different than last eight last year, so there are plenty of points to be won and lost.  I do plan to maintain my live rankings for the Open and will have the first update probably Monday when the latest rankings are published.

Men's Preview:  Given the poor performances of Nadal and Federer at the Rogers Cup and Cincinatti, I think that Novak Djokovic has emerged as the overwhelming favorite for this event.  Murray's nice showing in Cincinatti throws him into the mix, too, though, and there a couple others the big 4 might want to be wary of.
I see Djokovic as the clear favorite with Federer and Murray as co-distant seconds behind him.  Since Nadal is the defending champion, he deserves mention but I think he is ripe for an early upset due to his poor play recently and his mentality.  However, he did get a nice draw and could survive to the late stages where he could be a factor again.
Beyond the Big 4 Fish and Tsonga are probably most likely to make noise and go deep especially if the draw falls their way.  I don't see many others capable to doing too much winning and I'm not sold on Del Potro after his relatively poor summer.  He just hasn't been able to beat the big names so why would he now?  There will probably be a surprise or two since someone has to fill out the quarterfinal spots, so who will be the Open's Chela, Fognini, Lopez, or Tomic?  Speaking of the Australian, there are several youngsters with an opportunity to breakout (again) on the big scene.

Women's Preview:  After her preformances in Stanford and Toronto, Serena Williams has to be the favorite for the US Open.  However, I found it interesting that of her 13 majors she has only won in New York three times.  But given what she has done when healthy over the past 2-3 years, you know she has an excellent chance.  Of the other women on tour, only Sharapova has distanced herself from the field as a possible contender for this title, with her win in Cincinatti and overall consistency over the past few months.
So Serena is the favorite and Sharapova is second in line but then who?  You'd have to think recent slam winners Li and Kvitova could contend.  Zvonareva made the final here last year and has been finding her form more in recent weeks.  Bartoli and Azarenka have been RED HOT at times.  Then there's Stosur and Jankovic who have struggled this year but both made finals in the Tier I events.  And what of the world no. 1 who has had more success in New York than anywhere else.  Those players are roughly in my order of their chances of winning.
With so many mediocre to second-tier players out there, the chances of someone breaking through to the late rounds not among those names is pretty slim.  Oh and I didn't even mention the Germans, Kuznetsova, or Schiavone.  Unless some of the young players find some really special form, the third or fourth round will be the best they can do.  But I would keep an eye Christina McHale, she's bound to cause an upset or two before flaming out.
Also at stake is the battle for the world no. 1 ranking.  Wozniacki can't gain many more points the rest of the year, so expect her lead to dissipate.  Who can position themselves to possibly take it over.  Zvonareva, Sharapova, Azarenka, Kvitova, Li.  All these could have an opportunity!

Other tidbits

Former US Open champions in the draw:  Roddick (2003), Federer (2004,2005,2006,2007,2008), Del Potro (2009), Nadal (2010), Serena (1999,2002,2008), Venus (2000,2001), Kuznetsova (2004), Sharapova (2006).  Hewitt pulled out with another injury.
Other major champions in the draw:  Djokovic, Ferrero, Ivanovic, Kvitova, Li, Schiavone
Former junior US Open champions in the draw:  Nalbandian (1998), Nieminen (1999), Roddick (2000), Muller (2001), Gasquet (2002), Tsonga (2003), Murray (2004), Sweeting (2005), Lojda* (2006), Berankis (2007), Dimitrov (2008), Tomic (2009), Sock (2010), Lucic (1996), Dokic (1998), Bartoli (2001), Kirienko (2002), Krajicek* (2004), Azarenka (2005), Pavlyuchenkova (2006), Kucova* (2007), Vandeweghe (2008), Watson (2009)
* Denotes player still in qualifying after one round
Looking back at the seeds from last year's US Open, there are 12 men and 10 women seeded that were not seeded last year.  Most of those are players revitalizing there career or returning from injury.  Only Granollers and Dodig are seeded for the first time at a major.  Here is a list of those not seeded a year ago.
Men:  11-Tsonga, 12-Simon, 13-Gasquet, 15-Troicki, 18-Del Potro, 20-Tipsarevic, 22-Dolgopolov, 24-Chela, 26-Mayer, 29-Llodra, 31-Granollers, 32-Dodig
Women:  10-Petkovic, 13-Peng, 14-Cibulkova, 16-Ivanovic, 18-Vinci, 19-Georges, 22-Lisicki, 28-S.Williams, 29-Gajdosova, 30-Medina Garrigues
Here are those dropping from the seeds either by poor play, injury, or retirement.
Men:  6-Davydenko, 16-Baghdatis, 20-Querrey, 21-Montanes, 22-Ferrero, 24-Gulbis, 26-Bellucci, 27-Gonzalez, 29-Kohlschreiber, 30-Monaco, 31-Nalbandian, 32-Hewitt
Women:  2-Clijsters, 3-V.Williams, 12-Dementieva, 18-Rezai, 21-Zheng, 25-Dulgheru, 28-Kleybanova, 29-A.Bondarenko, 30-Shvedova, 32-Pironkova

Enjoy the fortnight!