Saturday, September 10, 2011

US Open: Super Saturday

In this rain altered version of Super Saturday, all four semifinals were contested, so both finals are set.  The women will play theirs on Sunday with the men following on Monday.  On the men's side, we simply have another verse to a recurring tune.  Novak Djokovic saved 2 match points on the Federer serve and came back from two sets to defeat the Swiss 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5 in a thriller.  Then Nadal took care of Murray relatively easily 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-2.  Although Federer probably should have served out the match and advanced, Djokovic and Nadal are now clearly ahead of all the others, just as much as Federer and Murray are ahead of the rest of the field.  Now will Nadal be able to reverse the course of his 5 previous meetings with Djokovic this year?

1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. 2) Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Djokovic - 6th slam final (3rd at the US Open), 3-2 record (0-2), last '11 Wimbledon
Nadal - 14th slam final (2nd at the US Open), 10-3 record (1-0), last '11 Wimbledon - 2 consecutive

Here is a link to their complete head to head, which seems to grow longer every tournament.
Nadal still leads the all-time series 16-12 but of course Djokovic is 5-0 against him this year.  Djokovic also leads on hard courts 9-5.
I don't know how this meeting would be any different than their previous meetings this year.  Nadal does come in playing well, having lost only one set to Murray.  Djokovic has lost 3 sets, 2 to Federer and 1 to Tipsarevic.  I predict Djokovic in 4 sets.

On the women's side, Serena Williams is right back in a slam final, after all her injury woes.  She'll meet Sam Stosur there in a rematch of the Rogers Cup final this year, won by Serena.  Serena has been on fire since she knocked the rust off at Eastbourne and Wimbledon, not having lost a match she showed up for.  She dominated the world no. 1 Wozniacki 6-2 6-4, and has not yet lost a set.  Stosur has lost 3 sets (Kerber, Kirilenko, Petrova) but has recovered and plodded along to reach the final and she'll have a shot, albeit not a great one, at upsetting the world's best active player.  I'm going to go with Serena in two tight sets.

9) Samantha Stosur (AUS) vs. 28) Serena Williams (USA)

(A good old-fashioned matchup of Australia vs the USA.)

Stosur - 2nd slam final (1st at the US Open), 0-1 record, last '10 French Open
Williams - 17th slam final (5th at the US Open), 13-3 record (3-1), last '10 Wimbledon

Williams leads the all-time series 4-2 (4-1 on hard courts):
2008 Olympics R32 (hard), Williams 6-2 6-0
2009 Sydney R32 (hard), Williams 6-3 6-7 7-5
2009 Stanford QF (hard), Stosur 6-2 3-6 6-2
2010 Aussie Open R16 (hard), Williams 6-4 6-2
2010 French Open QF (clay), 6-2 6-7 8-6
2011 Toronto F (hard), Williams 6-4 6-2

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