2012 Preview

So after a 4 or 5 week off-season, here we are again at the dawn of a new season, and one can understand some of the players complaining about the lack of a true off-season. This year I plan to continue my weekly blog updates after the completion of most tournaments with additional posts during Masters events and of course the four majors. But I am going to change the format just a bit and focus more the actual results themselves, with their associated statistics and rankings ramifications rather than getting too much into description of matches and cutting back some on predictions. This may be evolving some as the season goes along, but you have plenty of other places to go to get opinions and thoughts. I will stick more to the facts (scorelines) and try and bring out some more depth just by looking at the results. Not sure if that made any sense, but hopefully you (and I) will see as the year progresses.

I will keep a page listing 2012 tournament champions as I have the past two years, and will also occasionally update the WTA Top 100 by Birth Year page (I may try and do more commentary on that). I should still be able to keep up my “Slam Summary” stats in the background to post those in September or October. I have a couple other stat projects I may or may not get to as time allows. And finally, Davis Cup and Fed Cup will continue to be a focus, woven throughout the regular tournaments, since I really do enjoy international competitions.

Now without further ado, here are some things I’m looking forward to in 2012:

Uncertainty: This can probably be said about most seasons, as each begins with a clean slate. As of now, there are 8 major trophies to be won, 64 major quarterfinal slots to be filled, and 16 spots at the year end championships to be claimed. While we have a few penciled in to some of those blanks, we have no idea who some of them will be. I am looking forward to finding out what this season holds.

Battles for no. 1: This is the first year since what, 2003, that we have the potential for a real back-and-forth battle for no. 1 on the men’s side. Look at these numbers: Federer 237, Nadal 46, Federer 48, Nadal 56, Djokovic 26 and counting. Those are the last five players to hold no. 1 with their weeks. These guys got to number 1 and stayed there. Compare this to the period between March 1998 and September 1999 (18 months) when the ranking changed hands 12 times between 6 different players. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and maybe even Murray, have a legitimate chance to hold the no. 1 ranking at some point this year, and it could be a season-long battle.

On the women’s side, Wozniacki has held the no. 1 ranking for all but one week since late 2010. There’s a decent chance that changes early in 2012 but not a given as Kvitova has 2 titles and a major quarterfinal to defend early on. And then in the second half of the year, Kvitova defends a bunch of points while Wozniacki defends relatively few. Then throw in Serena, Clijsters, and maybe Sharapova and Azarenka and the women could have a little battle of their own.

Young Americans: I’m hoping the young Americans can take another step forward this year after an encouraging end of the year last year. Christina McHale was the top ranked player born in 1992 at #42 and Sloane Stephens was the top ranked player born in 1993 at #97. Vania King, Irina Falconi, and the young Madison Keys had nice seasons, and then of course there’s Melanie Oudin and Coco Vandeweghe who disappointed last year. What will these ladies’ careers look like another year in main tour matches? On the men’s side, I have my eye on not only Ryan Harrison and Donald Young, but also the two young men who played in the 2010 US Open boys final: Denis Kudla and Jack Sock.

Dominance of the Big 4: Will anyone, and if anyone, then who, will be able to breakthrough to a major semifinal this year after Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray claimed 14 of the 16 slots and won all nine Masters. I’m looking most at Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but also David Ferrer (who seems to always be around) and Juan Martin Del Potro (though less so than many). I also wonder if Andy Roddick is due for a deep run.

The Olympic Games: I am huge fan of the Olympics and this year we get the tennis tournament at Wimbledon, and also mixed doubles added. Can Federer or Serena complete the Career Golden Slam? I can’t wait for London 2012.

Finally, I am going publish a list of lower ranked players I’m keeping my eye on. I’ve done similar things in years past with mixed results. Also this year I’m going to make a point of mentioning “risers” in the rankings that maybe fly under the radar of some.

ATP
-Robin Haase (NED)
-Gilles Muller (LUX)
-Cedric Marcel-Stebe (GER)
-Joao Souza (BRA)
-Vasek Pospisil (CAN)
WTA
-Ksenia Pervak (KAZ)
-Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU)
-Simona Halep (ROU)
-Marina Erakovic (NZL)
-Mona Barthel (GER)