Davis Cup Semis/Playoffs Preview

It's been awhile since Davis Cup was contested at the World Group level, going all the way back to the week after Miami.  This is because the reconfiguration of the schedule due to the Olympics.  But here we are with the busiest weekend in Davis Cup with ten ties at the top tier of the competition plus some important promotion and relegation battles in the zones.  As I love international competitions, I have put aside by busy day job work schedule to preview the ties for you.

World Group Semifinals

United States at Spain:  Each country is missing one of their top players Nadal and Fish.  The loss of Nadal gives the Americans a fighting chance against Spain, but the latter never loses at home on clay and still has Ferrer and Almagro to counter Isner and Querrey.  The Granollers/M.Lopez has been much better than the old Verdasco/F.Lopez but I still doubt they beat the Bryans, who just won gold at the Olympics and the US Open.  This could give the Americans 2-1 lead since if Isner can beat Federer and Tsonga on clay why not Almagro?  I think Ferrer may be a bridge too far and I see Almagro outlasting Querrey in a live 5th rubber.  ESP 3 USA 2

Czech Republic at Argentina:  This is a tough tie to call because not only are Berdych and Del Potro in good form but Monaco and Stepanek are big question marks.  This match could come down to the match between the two no. 1's on Sunday because I don't see Stepanek as much of a threat.  Somehow I think Berdych comes through huge for the visitor's and wins all 3 points though I wouldn't be shocked if Argentina emerged either.  CZE 3 ARG 1

World Group Playoffs

Uzbekistan at Kazakhstan:  First off, hard to believe that these north Asian neighbors are meeting on this stage of the competition.  These are arguably the worst two teams of the 16 (Chile may be worse) but he they are playing (KAZ in #9 in the rankings go figure).  Istomin is the best player in this tie but has little behind him and he's on the road so I think the Kazakhs (Kukushkin and Golubev) can piece together 3 points and win this.  KAZ 3 UZB 2

Australia at Germany:  The Aussies get to this stage easily every but can't seem to get over the hump and get back in the World Group.  These is not the best foursome Germany has ever fielded (Mayer, Becker, Stebe, Petzschner) so even away on clay Australia will have hope.  This tie could ebb and flow and I'm going to hand it to the visitor's with likely some heroics from the great fighter Lleyton Hewitt.  AUS 3 GER 1

Israel at Japan:  Going to Japan always seems a tough task but it is getting increasly harder as Nishikori's supporting cast (Soeda and Ito) are getting into the top 100.  The Israelis usually save their best for Davis Cup but this may be the end of the line.  They've been living off their '09 SF appearance to the top seed in the zone and get a bye and an easy opponent to keep making the playoffs which may not happen once those points drop off for good.  I don't see Sela and Weintraub bothering Japan much but maybe they win the doubles point.  JPN 3 ISR 1

Sweden at Belgium:  Without Soderling (and where is he anyway, still down with mono?), Sweden is a zone II team at best, so this should be easy for Belgium and their rising star Goffin.  The last time the Swedes were not in the World Group was 2000.  They do get one point though because they have some doubles studs.  BEL 3 SWE 1

Canada vs South Africa:  This was supposed to be in South Africa but somehow the SA tennis federation was too broke.  Aren't Davis Cup ties supposed to bring money into the federations' coffers? If someone knows more about that, please comment.  So now they're playing in Montreal where Rogers Cup is held, and South Africa can't get Anderson to play (go figure) and now de Voest is hurt.  Looks like a long weekend for visitors.  CAN 3 RSA 0

Russia at Brazil:  This is repeat of last year's playoffs when Russia and Youzhny prevailed (14-12 in the 5th over Bellucci in the 4th rubber, then Tursunov clinched) in a thrilling tie.  But this year, it is in Brazil, and Youzhny and Davydenko aren't here.  This means Brazil behind Bellucci are favorites against Bogomolov, Andreev, and others that aren't tour regulars.  Maybe the visitors get a point.  This is Bogomolov's chance to make Russia glad he switched allegiance, unless this past winter in Austria.  BRA 3 RUS 1

Chile at Italy:  With the retirement of Gonzalez, I wonder Chile even managed to navigate Americas Zonal Group I to get back to the playoffs.  They will struggle to get on the board against Seppi and Fognini.  ITA 3 CHI 0

Switzerland at Netherlands:  Looks like Federer is going play, which pretty much dooms the Dutch.  They've got a decent team with Haase, Sijsling, de Bakker, and Rojer (for doubles) that could have contended had Wawrinka and Chiudinelli been playing singles.  But when Wawrinka is no. 2 behind the greatest of all time, reigning Wimbledon champ, and world no. 1, you shake your head and say it's a bad draw.  I'm tempted to give them a point, maybe in the doubles with Rojer, but no.  SUI 3 NED 0

Group I Relegation Ties

Americas:  Ecuador at Peru - ECU was in the World Group not long ago but the Lapentti brothers have retired.  You'd like to think they could still stave off relegation here.

Asia/Pacific:  New Zealand at India (loser plays Taiwan in October in actual relegation tie) - IND is without all their doubles specialists and Devvarman, perhaps as a result of that spat between them and the federation over Olympics.  Hard to predict anything because I know little of any of the players remaining.

Europe:  Portugal at Slovakia - This a resurgent Slovak team with Klizan as their no. 1.  Since it is being played on hard courts, they should cruise and be a threat to make the World Group playoffs next year.
Finland at Romania (loser plays Denmark in October in actual relegation tie) - Nieminen is by far the highest ranked player and it is on indoor hard.  ROU is running out Copil and Crivoi so I like FIN to advance.  However, ROU does have Tecau for doubles so it could get dicey.

Group II Promotion Ties

Americas:  Mexico at Dominican Republic - I think MEX has some decent young talent and Gonzalez a nice doubles player.  DOM has Estrella, a name I see in slam qualifying, and home court, but I like MEX.

Asia/Pacific:  Philippines at Indonesia - Not going to hazard a guess here.

Europe:  Ukraine at Latvia - Gulbis and Stakhovsky will be a nice treat to the fans on Sunday if the tie is still live, but Sergiy has way more behind him (Bubka and Marchenko) than Ernests so UKR should make their stay in Group II very short.
Belarus at Poland - The home side has Kubot and their doubles team so they should prevail rather easily.  BLR does have Mirnyi but little else.

I'll be back after the weekend to wrap up these ties.  I'll also have my recap of Quebec City and Tashkent on the WTA tour, plus possibly an updated top 10 by birth year page.