US Open: Women's Final

Victoria Azarenka vs. Serena Williams

The best female player of her generation takes on the new star who for half the season was the best player.  Each will strive to win their second major of the year, and they may also be competing for player of the year honors, although the year end championships may yet have a say.  Each also has a gold medal, Serena the coveted singles gold but Azarenka won gold in mixed doubles.

1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 2nd major final (1st at the US Open), 1-0 record, last '12 Aussie Open
4) Serena Williams (USA) - 19th major final (7th at the US Open), 14-4 record (4-2), 2nd consecutive F

Azarenka handed Sharapova her first 3 set loss of the season while she remained unbeaten in '12 in matches going the distance, 3-6 6-2 6-4.  Serena squashed Errani as expected, 6-1 6-2.

The head-to-head favors Serena 9-1 including 5-1 on hard courts and 16-4 in sets.  The complete list is below (bold is hard courts).

'08 Aussie Open R32: Serena 6-3 6-4
'09 Aussie Open R16: Serena 3-6 4-2 ret.
'09 Miami F: Azarenka 6-3 6-1
'09 Wimbledon QF: Serena 6-2 6-3
'10 Aussie Open QF: Serena 4-6 7-6(4) 6-2
'11 Rogers Cup SF: Serena 6-3 6-3
'11 US Open R32: Serena 6-1 7-6(5)
'12 Madrid F: Serena 6-1 6-3
'12 Wimbledon SF: Serena 6-3 7-6(6)
'12 Olympics SF: Serena 6-1 6-2

Serena is favorite here but she hasn't performed that well deep at the US Open the last two times (SF l. to Clijsters in '09, F l. to Stosur in '11).  I think we have a decent chance of getting the first 3 set final since '95 but I'm going to take Serena in two tight sets.  If it goes three, I would give Vika a slight advantage.