Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Wimbledon: Semifinals

Andy Murray survived a surprisingly tough test from Verdasco in the quarters, coming from two sets down to reach yet another Wimbledon semi.  Del Potro pretty well dominated Ferrer and I was really not surprised by that.  Petra Kvitova went crashing out of Wimbledon so we will have a first time major champion as Radwanska knocked out Li in 3 sets.  We are left wondering what effect that illness had on '11 Wimbledon champ.  So with that, and a few straight sets affair, we are down to the final four in each draw.  We are down to the semifinals at the French Open, and three of the top 4 seeds remain in each singles draw.

Here are the semifinalists:

Men
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 20th major semifinal (5th at Wimbledon), 10-9 record (1-3), 13th consecutive SF
2) Andy Murray (GBR) - 13th major semifinal (5th at Wimbledon), 6-6 record (1-3), last '13 Aussie Open
8) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) - 3rd major semifinal (1st at Wimbledon), 1-1 record, last '09 US Open
24) Jerzy Janowicz (POL) - 1st major semifinal!

Women
4) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 2nd major semifinal (2nd at Wimbledon), 1-0 record (1-0), last '12 Wimbledon
15) Marion Bartoli (FRA) - 3rd major semifinal (2nd at Wimbledon), 1-1 record (1-0), last '11 French Open
20) Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) - 1st major semifinal!
23) Sabine Lisicki (GER) - 2nd major semifinal (2nd at Wimbledon), 0-1 record (0-1), last '11 Wimbledon

-The comparison of collective semifinals between the men and women isn't close, thanks to Murray and Djokovic being in the draw still:  37 to 8
-Djokovic and Murray are returning semifinalists from last year, Radwanska has also achieved the same feat for the women.
-Djokovic and Bartoli are still yet to lose a set.
-There has been very little change in the rankings after the quarters results.  Flipkens is into the top 15 and Lisicki rises to no. 21.

Despite the scare from Verdasco, Djokovic and Murray are still on a collision course for the final.  Both guys, though, have tricky semi opponents.  Djokovic lost to Del Potro in the bronze medal match at the Olympics and Janowicz is no pushover, even on grass, as despite the draw opening for him he is taking the next step forward for his career.  I'm going to stick with the top two players meeting for the championship, but I wouldn't surprised if Del Potro pulls an upset.  Murray would be wise to put away Janowicz quickly, after he had to go 5 sets against Verdasco.

Both the women's matchups are difficult to call especially to one in the top half as I've wavered back and forth between Lisicki and Radwanska.  I think this is really a 50/50 match and destined for 3 sets.  I'm going to with Lisicki (at least in this post) thanks to her grass success and she has the more power.  I think Bartoli will reach a second Wimbledon final but Flipkens will not be a pushover.  She rode an open draw to the quarters but then took out Kvitova as the latter was gaining steam.  If the Belgian were to somehow win this title, this would be the biggest slam upset since I've been following tennis for sure.  This is someone completely off the radar at the beginning of the year, and she is now 2 steps from a major.  But while she is the least likely of the four to pull off the title, she still has a legitimate shot.

More coming Friday after the conclusion of the semis.

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