Wimbledon: Finals

We were treated to a wonderful day of tennis by the men's semifinal matches, with Del Potro never giving up against Djokovic but eventually falling 6-3 in the 5th, and then Janowicz being very competitive against Murray before losing in 4 sets.

1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. 2) Andy Murray (GBR)

This is the first meeting between the top two players in the world in a major final since Djokovic and Nadal at the '12 French Open.  It will the third major final between Djokovic and Murray in the last 4 majors.

Djokovic leads Murray is their head-to-head 11-7 with majority of their meetings coming on hard courts.  They met 7 times during 2012 with Djokovic winning 4 matches.  They have played just once on grass, at the Olympics last year, which Murray won 7-5 7-5 on his way to the gold medal.  In sets they are close with Djokovic holding a 27-21 edge.

This is the matchup we've been expecting ever since Federer and Nadal went crashing.  Djokovic comes in a little tired after his almost 5-hr semi, but Murray played over 4-hr against Verdasco in the quarters.  I like Murray to win this match, given that he's at home and I think has played a little bit better during the tournament.  That said, one can never doubt the will of Djokovic is some of these matches so it's tough pick, but I'll say Murray in 4 sets.

Djokovic: 11th major final (2nd at Wimbledon), 6-4 record (1-0), last '13 Aussie Open

Murray: 7th major final (2nd at Wimbledon), 1-5 record (0-1), last '13 Aussie Open

-A win would move Murray within 3000 points of Djokovic, but a loss would keep the Serb 4600 points clear in the rankings.  It hard for me to believe how far Djokovic is ahead right now.
-Murray has a 17-match grass court winning streak dating back to his Wimbledon final loss to Federer last year.

We also got a classic semifinal from the women yesterday when the back-and-forth tussle finally went the way of Lisicki 9-7 in the 3rd, as Radwanska went out fighting after blowing a 3rd set lead.  The other semi was a bust as Bartoli squashed Flipkens' Cinderella hopes.

15) Marion Bartoli (FRA) vs. 23) Sabine Lisicki (GER)

Who would have thought the Wimbledon championship would come down to two women ranked outside the top 10?  Ironically, it is the highest seed combination (not included unseeded women like Clijsters and Henin) since Bartoli played her previous final against Venus.

Bartoli and Lisicki have met 4 times prior to this, with the German winning 3 times.  Here is their head-to-head:
'08 Wimbledon R128 (grass): Bartoli 6-2 6-4
'09 Charleston SF (clay): Lisicki 6-3 6-1
'11 Charleston R32 (clay): Lisicki 6-2 6-3
'11 Wimbledon QF (grass): Lisicki 6-4 6-7(7) 6-1

So they have only met at two different locations and Lisicki is ahead in sets 6-3.  They have split the meetings on grass.  The '11 Wimbledon meeting came right after Bartoli had upset Serena.

While I wouldn't be surprised with a Bartoli, and she's been very good under the radar at this Wimbledon, it's tough to envision her eventually holding up the trophy against a woman who came through Serena and Radwanska (last year's finalists) to get here, and Lisicki is probably stronger mentally.  I think Lisicki will win in two tight sets, but there should be plenty of ball bashing.  I don't know that Bartoli can hold serve often enough.  But she hasn't lost a set at this tournament, so I'm not totally counting her out.  This final does bring back memories of the '10 French Open when Stosur took out Henin, Serena, and Jankovic, only to fall to Schiavone in the final.  Is Bartoli the next Schiavone?

Bartoli: 2nd major final (2nd at Wimbledon), 0-1 record (0-1), last '07 Wimbledon

Lisicki: 1st major final

-Bartoli is currently no. 8 in the live rankings, having moved past Kerber and Wozniacki with her semi win.  She'll pass Kvitova for no. 7 with a win.
-Lisicki is up to no. 18 right now, and will improve all the way to no. 11 if she wins the title.
-Lisicki is 19-3 at Wimbledon since 2009.

Enjoy the finals!