Rogers Cup/Cincinnati Preview

The big North American hard court tournaments are right around corner and a new rivalry is atop the men's game, while in the women's game, despite Lisicki's win over Serena at Wimbledon, everyone is still trying to catch the world no. 1.

Djokovic has looked a little more human than usual during the last few tournaments, but hasn't gone down easily, losing in 5 sets to Nadal in Paris and in 3 tight sets to Murray at Wimbledon after a tough 5-setter against Del Potro.  Federer has struggled mightily in his European clay experiment, following up his Wimbledon loss to Stakhovsky by falling to Delbonis and Brands.  The man could still surprise me, but in my opinion he's fallen down into the Tsonga and Berdych category, likely even behind Del Potro, who is still alive in the Washington draw.  Nadal hasn't played since he bowed out in the Wimbledon first round, but I don't expect to factor much into these tournaments, which traditionally he has performed poorly at.  I would not be surprised to see 3 more Djokovic-Murray finals, but I suppose someone, most likely Del Potro or maybe Federer at Cincinnati interjecting themselves into the mix at one tournament.

Serena did lose to Kerber at one of these tournaments last year, and there have a been a handful of losses here and there.  I imagine Serena will lose at least one match somewhere along the line, but she's definitely the favorite at all three events.  Azarenka may be her best threat, she is still alive in Carlsbad, and Radwanska has been playing well but has never made the quarters at the US Open.  Chances are that we'll get a surprise finalist or two over the next two weeks, maybe even in New York, but this should be Serena's season again.  Which of the other ladies is going to contend at each tournaments' last weekend is anyone's though, since inconsistency has returned to the top 10.

Here are those who reached the quarters at the summer hard court tournaments last year and who are defending the big points:

Men

Rogers Cup - Novak Djokovic (SRB) def. Richard Gasquet (FRA) 6-3 6-2
Cincinnati - Roger Federer (SUI) def. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 6-0 7-6
Semifinalists: Rogers - Janko Tipsarevic (SRB), John Isner (USA); Cincy - Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Quarterfinalists: Both - Mardy Fish (USA), Milos Raonic (CAN); Rogers - Tommy Haas (GER), Milos Raonic (CAN), Marcel Granollers (ESP); Cincy - Marin Cilic (CRO), Jeremy Chardy (FRA)

I was going to comment that the Rogers Cup was played directly after the Olympics last year, so it didn't see quite the same field, but then I see an equally surprisingly list for Cincinnati.  This is put up or shut up time for Raonic and it's going to be tough to Fish getting back to these quarters after just returning to the tour.  Most of the other names there are going to have a tough time defending their points.  Haas and Cilic have some hope of getting to the quarters, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Del Potro and Wawrinka in the semis, but Gasquet, Tipsarevic, and the like aren't going that deep again.  Interesting there is no Berdych, Tsonga, or Ferrer in that list, not to mention Nadal who was injured.

Women

Rogers Cup - Petra Kvitova (CZE) def. Na Li (CHN) 7-5 2-6 6-3
Cincinnati - Na Li (CHN) def. Angelique Kerber (GER) 1-6 6-3 6-1
Semifinalists: Rogers - Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), Lucie Safarova (CZE); Cincy - Petra Kvitova (CZE), Venus Williams (USA)
Quarterfinalists: Both - Agnieszka Radwanska (POL); Rogers - Roberta Vinci (ITA), Tamira Paszek (AUT), Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN); Cincy - Serena Williams (USA), Samantha Stosur (AUS), Anastasia Pavlyuchenko (RUS)

There was good consistency among a few names listed above, but Kvitova and Li are going to be hard pressed to defend all these points.  A number of surprises here too though are not playing well.  Especially I am thinking about Safarova, Paszek, and Wozniak, but there are also question marks about Wozniacki, Venus, and Pavlyuchenkova.  Again, notably absent from here are Azarenka and Sharapova.

Here are players who reached the quarters at both tournaments last year:
-Djokovic (W/F)
-Li (F/W)
-Kvitova (W/SF)
-Fish (QF/QF)
-Raonic (QF/QF)
-Radwanska (QF/QF)

Enjoy the tennis these next couple weeks!