Fed Cup Preview

Another big weekend of Fed Cup is ahead of us and the task now begins of trying to figure who is exactly going to show up at various points around the world from St Louis and Quebec City all the way to Brisbane.  There are 10 ties involving World Group nations or those hoping to qualify plus some zonal pool play.

World Group I Semifinals

Italy at Czech Republic: These countries seemingly always meet at this stage of Fed Cup with the winner going on to win the cup.  At least that's happened 4 of the 5 years.  However, none of the players enter with much of a hot streak since Pennetta is sitting this one out with a wrist injury.  Kvitova and Safarova versus Errani and Vinci with Koukalova and Giorgi perhaps coming off the bench since they are both in good form.  With the awful play of the Italians in 2014 it is hard to imagine them winning on the road.  The wild card is Giorgi here who just reached the final in Katowice.  If it would happen to go to the doubles, I like the Italians' chances but I don't think Kvitova and Safarova (who has played well in Fed Cup recently) will give them that opportunity.  CZE 3 ITA 1

Germany at Australia: And here are 2 nations who often have underachieved in Fed Cup and despite being on the other side of the world from the next tour stops, both sides have managed a top rate squad, though Lisicki is not here.  Kerber and Petkovic (who won recently in Charleston) challenge Stosur and Dellacqua.  The question here is how Stosur will handle the pressure of playing at home.  With the resurgence of Petkovic, the Germans will be tough to beat despite the recent rise of Dellacqua.  I like the Germans because they're the better players at this point and the Aussies have often folded at home.  If it gets to the doubles, Germany will have Goerges/Groenefeld against either Barty/Dellacqua or someone with Stosur.  GER 3 AUS 1

World Group I Playoffs

Argentina at Russia: The Russian federation has finally pulled enough strings to get at least Makarova and Vesnina to show up for a tie so they'll be heavy favorites against Ormaechea and Irigoyen, who are tough outs at the Parque Roca, but will be on the road this time.  And if the Argentines do manage to push it to doubles, they'll be reminded that Makarova/Vesnina are a fine team on tour.  Ormaechea will pick off one but Russia prevails to stay in the top group.  RUS 3 ARG 1

Slovakia at Canada: Maybe it's having to travel to the Western Hemisphere but a team that almost always has Cibulkova and Hantuchova ready to go will be doing without them for once.  But that doesn't mean Canada and Bouchard has a easy victory.  The Slovaks will be deeper with Rybarikova and Cepelova while I imagine it will be Wozniak playing 2nd to Bouchard.  This could be a dogfight, but I think Bouchard will come through and get her 2 points and then the home side will win the doubles too.  But I won't count out Slovakia.  CAN 3 SVK 2

France at United States: The Williams sisters are absent, leaving a bunch of mostly out of form players in Stephens, Keys, Lepchenko, and McHale.  France, on the other hand, is red hot, with Cornet and Garcia both winning titles last week.  The USA has gotten good play from youngsters in the past in Fed Cup but that was a few years ago, and I think the French will too good.  That said, Stephens and Keys have shown the talent, just not recently.  I think it will end in another American Fed Cup disaster.  FRA 3 USA 0

Poland at Spain: Once again, it's about who's not there.  And that's Suarez Navarro and Muguruza for Spain, who instead have Torro-Flor, Soler Espinosa, Cabeza Candela, and Medina Garrigues to battle the Radwanska sisters plus Rosolska as the secret weapon in doubles.  Spain often wins at home on their beloved clay against superior opponents, but this time there's a top 5 player on the other side of the net.  I'm not going to bet against Radwanska, but it may need to go to the doubles if Urszula can't get a win.  POL 3 ESP 2

World Group II Playoffs

Serbia at Romania: The young Romanians are finally into the World Group II playoffs and have a home tie but it will be a tough tie with Ivanovic, Jovanovski, and a red hot Jaksic standing in their way.  Halep and Cirstea aren't in the best of form though they'll have Begu/Niculescu for doubles, a team that served them well in zonal play.  I don't know that Cirstea can muster a win so it may come down Halep vs Ivanovic in 3rd rubber to decide the tie.  Ivanovic is often a Fed Cup choker so I'll take the home team.  ROU 3 SRB 2

Japan at Netherlands: The Dutch were the surprise of zonal competition and Bertens, Rus, and Hogenkamp are back to see they can gain promotion.  Japan is missing some key cogs so it will be Nara, Doi, and Ozaki to counter.  After seeing what the Dutch did in Hungary, I'm not picking against them.  NED 3 JPN 0

Thailand at Sweden: Just to be here is an accomplishment for Kumkhum and her teammates.  They've got to go on the road to Sweden to face the formidable tandem of Arvidsson and Larsson.  I like the host country in this one.  SWE 3 THA 1

Switzerland at Brazil: Unlike Thailand, underdog Brazil gets a home tie but arguably has a worse team behind Pereira.  The Swiss are young too but Bencic is a prodigy so I give her 2 singles wins.  Ties is far flung corners of the tennis universe are often difficult to predict, but I'm going to with Bacsinszky or Golubic clinching the tie for the visitors over Pigossi or Goncalves.  SUI 3 BRA 1

Europe/Africa Zonal Group II
Siauliai, Lithuania
Pool A: Finland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Montenegro
Pool B: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Egypt, Georgia, South Africa

The names of note here are Vogt (LIE), Simmonds and Grandin (RSA), Shapatava (GEO) - fresh off a main draw win in Bogota.  Kovinic (MNE) is listed but she's playing in Kuala Lumpur right now.

Two teams will be promoted and my initial instinct is to take both GEO and RSA out of Pool B with Kovinic not in play.  But I wouldn't count out the home team LTU or even Vogt's LIE.  For relegation it's tough to say with knowing very little about these players.

-Bosnia and Georgia were relegated from Group I last year.  Montenegro and Lithuania were losers in the group finals.  Finland and South Africa survived relegation matches.  Egypt and Liechtenstein were promoted from Group III last year.

Americas Zonal Group II
Humacao, Puerto Rico

This actually happened last week and I got my dates crossed up.

Pool A: Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama
Pool B: Barbados, Chile, Puerto Rico
Pool C: Bermuda, Bolivia, Peru
Pool D: Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay

BOL def. DOM, CHI def. CRC

Puig was about the only player of note in this whole group and Puerto Rico was at home but somehow lost the deciding doubles match to Chile in pool play, so they'll have to wait another year to try for promotion.

Chile makes an immediate return to Group I while Peru was relegated last year also but lost to Bolivia in their pool.  Bolivia is promoted in their stead, they were relegated 2 years ago.

I shall return likely next Monday to recent the events of the weekend.