French Open Preview 2015

Just a few days until the French Open begins for 2015, the culmination of the clay season.  While the men's side seems like it may be only a formality, the women's side has the potential to bring chaos if the tournament turns out anything like Madrid or Rome.  Let's begin there.

Women's Preview

Serena Williams is the favorite to win this tournament, but not an overwhelming one.  I feel like there is about a 30% chance she will win but it is possible she get upset somewhere along the line, this is clay after all, and she's ONLY won the French twice.  She also could get beaten down by injuries.  Behind Serena, there is no clear #2 given the struggles Sharapova has had until Rome and the total lack of anything resembling consistency by any of the top players, outside of two of the names you'll below.

One of the those names is Simona Halep, but she's even had her ups and downs, but righted her ship by reaching the semis in Rome.  I have her second on this list because she's one of only a handful of players who can beat Serena AND win the tournament.  She's beaten Serena before, clay is her best surface, and she won a set in the final last year.

My co-third favorites are Sharapova and Suarez Navarro, the former because of her clay prowess post-surgery and win in Rome, the latter because of her amazing record this, a ridiculous 10 WTA QF appearances and a 31-10 record already.  I list them together because I don't believe either has any chance against Serena, but both can easily be the favorite against any other player in the draw, save possibly Halep.  Plus they just played a competitive 3-set final in Rome.

My final player who I think has a legitimate chance to win the tournament is Petra Kvitova.  She caught fire in Madrid, beat Serena and won the tournament, so she's got a shot here.  There's an argument to be made to rank her higher on this list but Sharapova is the reigning French Open champion, Suarez Navarro has beaten her 3 times this year, including last week in Rome, and Halep has been by far the more consistent player since last year's Wimbledon.

I feel like there are these 5, and then the field.  I did want to call out two names from the field: Victoria Azarenka and Svetlana Kuznetsova.  Both winners of 2 majors (Kuznetsova one at the French albeit 6 years ago) but both in relatively good form.  Azarenka all but beat Serena in Madrid, and Kuznetsova is red-hot after her run to the Madrid final.  Both would be a reach to win the title, but given their current form they stand ahead of the field.

Because really, who is else is there? A look at the quarterfinalists in Madrid and Rome will tell you all you need to know.  Wozniacki, Ivanovic, Kerber, Radwanska, etc have been so up and down this year.  The door is open for a younger player to make a nice run but even they have questions.  Pliskova hasn't been good on clay, and Muguruza hasn't been real good all of 2015.  This really is the potential to be a wild tournament, but I think 1 or 2 of the five I listed will survive to reach the final and win the trophy.

Men

This, to me, is really all about Novak Djokovic, but then below him, the Big 4, which again are towering above the competition.  I've also been slow to not endorse Nadal as the favorite at this tournament where he's only lost once in what, 10 years now?  But this year Djokovic has been has been head and shoulders ahead of everyone else, save to Federer in Dubai, and Nadal has not looked very good, even at his former bastions of Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome.  I think is the year Djokovic wins the French Open and completes his career grand slam, and why not, makes a run at the calendar year Slam.

Nadal is still probably the second favorite, given his head-to-head with Federer, though the blowout loss to Murray in Madrid makes one wonder.  After all, he's won this event NINE times, occasionally coming with suspect form.  A problem here though is his ranking, at #7, depending on the draw he may have to go through Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, which would be brutal.  The worst case for Nadal would be if he were drawn Murray, because then he would guaranteed to have all 3 in his path (assuming they made it to him of course).  The best case would obviously be to be in Berdych's quarter in Federer's half, or even in Federer's quarter if Murray were in the opposite half.  But any way you slice it, Nadal will need to up his game to win this tournament for a 10th time.

Federer seems to be in pretty good form, given his win in Istanbul and final in Rome, albeit sandwiching a loss to Kyrgios.  One could even make the argument that he has a better chance at this point to beat Djokovic than Nadal, which may be saying simply that Djokovic has little chance to be beat.  After all, he has beaten Djokovic this year.  But Federer will be desperately hoping Nadal lands in Djokovic's half, because even given the form of the two, I have little confidence in Federer being able to beat Nadal especially on clay.

And there is Murray, a man who never won a clay title as a single man, is now 10-0 with 2 titles on the surface after getting hitched, also with a win over Nadal.  This moves Murray into the conversation of potential winners if Djokovic slips.  We will see if the Murray renaissance is for real, Djokovic or Federer will likely be waiting in the semis, but may also have to hurdle Nadal or even Ferrer to get there.  But he's got to optimistic after his runs in Munich and Madrid.

Beyond the big 4, it's not happening.  Berdych, Ferrer, and Raonic have had good seasons but you're going to try to convince me they're going to beat 2 or 3 of the above?  Nope.

So on that note, here's last year's quarterfinalists, while I try to figure how on earth Ernests Gulbis (1-11 in 2015) managed to reach the semis.

Men's final: Nadal def. Djokovic
-Semis: Murray, Gulbis
-Quarters: Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Monfils

Women's final: Sharapova def. Halep
-Semis: Bouchard, Petkovic
-Quarters: Suarez Navarro, Errani, Muguruza, Kuznetsova