Wimbledon Preview 2015

With the extra week between the French Open and Wimbledon, it seems like an eternity has passed Stan Wawrinka shocked us all by winning the men's title and Serena Williams adding yet another title to her sterling resume.  Here's my thoughts on the upcoming tournament.

Women's Preview

Serena Williams is again the favorite, as she is any time she steps on a tennis court.  But it's hard to believe Serena has won only one of the past 4 Wimbledons while the world no. 2 has won two of them.  If Serena is on her game, one would think she will the tournament, although the 5 dropped sets at the French Open sprinkle some doubt upon the issue.  Serena has certainly lost several times in the past when she is overwhelming favorite entering a tournament, so it's certainly possible someone else could emerge.

If the tournament will not be won by Serena, there are really about 20 names I could toss into a hat and each would have equal chance of being chosen.  Below Serena, none of the women of have been very consistent though most have had their moments.  The one woman that does rise above the others is Petra Kvitova, thanks only to her two titles at Wimbledon in the last 4 years and the fact that she hadn't been very good in '14 prior to winning Wimbledon.  If she's able to survive into the second week, she'll certainly be a threat to retain her title.

Others members of the top 10 such as Halep, Sharapova, Wozniacki, and Makarova haven't been too special over the past few weeks.  Ivanovic had a nice French Open but how many really expect her form to hold up?  Safarova and Kerber both enter the tournament in good form (Lucie from her French Open final and Kerber from her Birmingham title with wins over Pliskova, Lisicki, and Jankovic.  Both are former Wimbledon semifinalists and they would be dark horse picks if there is such a thing in a such a wide open tournament.

Continuing down the rankings there are really a bunch of uninspiring names, all with flaws and some (Bouchard and Radwanska) with miserable seasons to date, though each of those names has been to a Wimbledon final.  Likely this will be another wild tournament with lots of upsets and several double-digit seeds still around in the quarters and semis.  So buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Men

The men's side, on the other hand, still has its stability at the top, although more men have joined the usual quartet of suspects.  I see this tournament as relatively wide open among the top 4 or 5 men.

Novak Djokovic enters after a disappointing end to his French Open, so while his form has been the best this year as evidenced by his Aussie Open and 5 Masters wins, you wonder where his head will be at and arguably grass is his worst surface.  He'll also need to survive world no. 33 Kohlschreiber in the first round, who is a tougher that half of the seeded players would have been.

Roger Federer lost to Djokovic in the final a year ago, and has been in good form for most of the year.  He just won in Halle.  But I have a hard time believing Federer can win another major, or even beat other top 5 players in the late stages of a major.  But he hasn't won 7 Wimbledons for nothing and he didn't *poof* appear at no. 2 in the world, so he still must be taken seriously

Andy Murray has been on fire getting married, losing just 1 match, and that in 5 sets over 2 days to Djokovic in the French Open semis.  He is my pick to win this tournament.  He always plays well at home on grass, is in amazing form, and has beaten both Djokovic and Federer in 5-set finals at SW19 (Djokovic at '13 Wimbledon, Federer at '12 Olympics).  It's hard to envision him not getting the Federer in the SF, and then he's just 2 big matches away.

I'll actually put Wawrinka as the 4th favorite since despite Nadal's success in Stuttgart I have no confidence in his grass court abilities.  The issue here is that grass is his worst surface and you wonder where his mind is at after winning the French Open.  Just getting to Djokovic in the SF would be a success given his likely frame of mind.  But maybe he'll surprise me.

Then there's the 2nd tier of candidates like Nishikori, Raonic, Tsonga, etc, and maybe we even throw Nadal in here since he has won the event twice.  I realize Wawrinka has won 2 majors and somehow Cilic is the reigning US Open champion, but I will be very surprised if it's not of the above four lifting the trophy on the final Sunday, and realistically probably Djokovic or Murray.

So on that note, here's last year's quarterfinalists, while wondering how far down the rankings Bouchard to set to plummet.

Men's final: Djokovic def. Federer
-Semis: Raonic, Dimitrov
-Quarters: Murray, Wawrinka, Cilic, Kyrgios

Women's final: Kvitova def. Bouchard
-Semis: Halep, Safarova
-Quarters: Makarova, Kerber, Lisicki, Strycova