French Open: Semifinals

We are down to the semifinals at the French Open, and three of the top 4 seeds remain in each singles draw.  Tsonga defeated Federer with surprising ease as I thought Federer was a near lock to reach the final.  In fact, all of the quarterfinals were brief, relatively straightforward affairs.  Serena and Sharapova were both pressed in their quarterfinals by Kuznetsova and Jankovic, who are clearly on the upswing in their careers while Azarenka and Errani endured tight 2 set matches.

Here are the semifinalists:

Men
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 19th major semifinal (5th at the FO), 9-9 record (1-3), 12th consecutive SF
3) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 20th major semifinal (8th at the FO), 16-3 record (7-0), last '12 French Open
4) David Ferrer (ESP) - 6th major semifinal (2nd at the FO), 0-5 record (0-1), 3rd consecutive SF
6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) - 5th major semifinal (1st at the FO), 1-3 record, last '12 Wimbledon

Women
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 23rd major semifinal (3rd at the FO), 19-3 record (1-1), last '12 US Open
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - 17th major semifinal (4th at the FO), 7-9 record (1-2), 3rd consecutive SF
3) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 6th major semifinal (1st at the FO), 3-2 record, 4th consecutive SF
5) Sara Errani (ITA) - 3rd major semifinal (2nd at the FO), 1-1 record (1-0), last '12 US Open

-Comparing collective major semifinal appearances, despite losing Federer the men just edge the women 50 to 49 (close!)
-Tsonga replaces Federer when looking back at the semifinalists last year.  Two of the women's semifinalists are the same - Sharapova and Errani, while Stosur and Kvitova have bowed out
-All of the women have lost a set but neither Ferrer nor Tsonga has lost one while Djokovic has lost one and Nadal two.
-Azarenka has now reached the semis at all four majors.
-Ferrer must win to assure himself of the no. 4 ranking following the French Open, otherwise Nadal would stay there if he wins the title.  Another win for Tsonga means he will take no. 6 from Berdych.  Djokovic will be no. 1 at least through Wimbledon.
-Sharapova must win title to stay at no. 2.  Errani's win means she stays at no. 5.  Serena has clinched no. 1 but the ranking could be up for grabs at Wimbledon.
-The winner of the Ferrer/Tsonga semifinal will be the first non-Big 4 member to reach a major final since Berdych at '10 Wimbledon.

So we get the Djokovic/Nadal semi we wanted and what is likely the de facto final.  Both semis are really hard to call at this point.  I would have tipped Djokovic until I saw the way Nadal took out Wawrinka.  I'm going to give Nadal just the slightest edge but this really should be an amazing match.  Both Ferrer and Tsonga come in on amazing form.  Tsonga just handed Federer his first pre-semi French Open loss since 2004 and Ferrer had won six sets 6-1 in the tournament.  My head says Ferrer but my gut says Tsonga in a match that could be equally entertaining.  If forced to pick, I'll go with an all-Spanish final.

Errani is good player but her win over Radwanska was her first over a top 5 player.  I don't expect a 1 and 2 beatdown and Errani has some variety that could bother Serena but I think the world no. 1 gets through fairly comfortably.  I like Azarenka to end Sharapova's French Open win streak as the Russian has impressed me much in the later rounds of this tournament while Azarenka has gotten better and better.  The first set bagel against Jankovic was disturbing.

And now a brief word on Federer.  I'm going to reserve full judgment until after Wimbledon but I think Roger has taken a step back this season.  The biggest difference is now losing half the time to players like Berdych, Tsonga, and Del Potro and while he can occasionally best Djokovic and Nadal it is rare especially that he is having trouble getting to them now.  He's still a top five and could yet more another major but it's going to be difficult and he's clearly a step below the top two and probably three in the world.

Looking forward to some great tennis tomorrow and especially Friday.  Au revoir!