After a great Olympic tournament, we prepare for the final major of 2016. Djokovic and Serena are still no. 1, and probably still the favorites, but with the top women playing well and some of the younger men showing good signs, we may be in for a great tournament.
Women
All year long I've been complaining about the lack of consistency from the top women and how almost anyone in the top 10 could lose to anyone (really, anyone) on any given day. But now women like Kerber, Halep, and Muguruza have put together nice summers and I'm optimistic we'll have a good number of the top seeds around in the second week. Serena has to still be considered the favorite but there are plenty of chinks in her armor and she'll have to hit the ground running with Makarova in round 1. If she's not 100% healthy or 100% on her game, she'll be vulnerable to the other members of the top 5, assuming she makes it that deep in the tournament.
Kerber has been on fire since the tournament moved off of clay but came up one win short at Wimbledon, the Olympics, and Cincinnati. But it's to see her not reaching the semis especially with Vinci the next highest seed in her quarter. Halep and Muguruza have both played well in stretches, and Radwanska is still in the New Haven draw, losing only 2 games to Olympic bronze medalist Kvitova. The Czech seems to have righted the ship and could be a threat. There's also women like Keys and Kuznetsova, who could get hot and make a run (it's got to coming sooner or later for Keys, who has made finals in Rome and Montreal this year, plus 4th place at the Olympics). There's just a lot of names to throw in the hat this tournament, and I'm hoping that means high quality quarters, semis, and of course the final. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Kerber to win this title, possibly over Serena, and claim the no. 1 ranking, leaving Serena tied with Graf (but Serena will get no. 1 back later this year since she's not defending any points).
There are 22 Americans in the draw, 17% of the field, including 4 seeds in the Williams sisters, Keys, and Vandeweghe, and qualifiers Pegula, Townsend, and Bellis (remember her). With the sheer volume of players, there are bound to be several reaching the 3rd and 4th rounds, and there's a few teens in the group looking to break out. But there Americans also have strength at the top with 3 top 8 seeds. This could be a good tournament for the local interest as well.
Potential quarterfinals:
Serena vs Halep
Radwanska vs Venus
Muguruza vs Keys
Kerber vs Vinci
Men
Djokovic or Murray, Murray or Djokovic, who will it be? Or could it possibly be someone different? Just like with Serena, there have been a few chinks in the Djokovic armor this summer. First the loss to Querrey at Wimbledon and then the first round exit to Del Potro at the Olympics. Can he get to Murray in the final, and then beat him? I'm pessimistic about his chances but he's proven me wrong before. He could play the in form Cilic in the quarters, who just beat Murray in Cincinnati. Murray is on fire, save the loss to Cilic, and has the easier half. I'm going to pick him to win title, based on his form, and Djokovic being ever so slightly down.
Can anyone spoil a Djokovic-Murray final? Cilic can, he's won this tournament before and as I mentioned, just beat Murray. That would be a really quarterfinal vs Djokovic. Raonic seems to flying under the radar this year despite playing in the Wimbledon final but he's a threat. I don't think Nadal is much of a threat. If he's able to win his first match or two, I think he can reach the quarters, but there's not much in his recent past that would suggest he's back to being able to compete against the very best -- he lost to Del Potro and Nishikori at the Olympics. I think Wawrinka is ripe to upset and has not been very consistent this year. The men in the top 10 seem to be on shakier ground than the women in this tournament, and this could lead a breakthrough by some of the younger names, especially Kyrgios and Zverev, who are near Wawrinka. Del Potro showed good form in the Olympics, but I wonder how he'll hold up in best of 5. I feel like there could be some surprises this year, so we'll see what happens.
There are 17 American men in the draw, but seems more like just depth than good depth. Despite all the US Big 4 (Isner, Johnson, Querrey, Sock) being seeded, none are top 16 seed, meaning it will be a little tougher to go deep. In addition, Sock and Fritz meet in the first round. There are 3 qualifiers, Donaldson and the Harrison brothers. I'm only expecting a few to reach the 3rd round, and I'll be pleasantly surprised if anyone makes the second week, although Isner has a draw to work with Gasquet as a potential 3rd round opponent.
Potential quarterfinals:
Djokovic vs Cilic
Nadal vs Raonic
Wawrinka vs Thiem
Murray vs Nishikori
2016 Results
Pennetta def. Vinci (remember that?)
SF - Serena, Halep
QF - Venus, Azarenka, Kvitova, Mladenovic
Djokovic def. Federer
SF - Wawrinka, Cilic
QF - Tsonga, Gasquet, Lopez, Anderson
Former champions in the draw:
-Serena, Venus, Kuznetsova, Stosur
-Del Potro, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Cilic (just realized the US Open has produced 6 different champions the last 8 years)
Former junior champions in the draw:
-Lucic-Baroni (20 yrs ago), Flipkens, Pavlyuchenkova, Kucova, Vandeweghe, Watson, Gavrilova, Crawford, Konjuh
-Muller, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Berankis, Dimitrov, Tomic, Sock, Coric, Fritz (last year's winner)
Enjoy the tennis!
Showing posts with label Tournament Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tournament Preview. Show all posts
Friday, August 26, 2016
Friday, June 24, 2016
Wimbledon 2016 Preview
Wimbledon is right around the corner and while both brackets have their definite favorites, there is plenty of room for grass court specialists and other hot players to pull some upsets and go very deep in this tournament as the second tier of players look very vulnerable.
Men
Only 3 men have contested the final the past 3 years, and they are the top 3 seeds this year. One of those men, Federer, has been injured much of the year and was beaten on grass this year by Thiem and Zverev, so I would be surprised to seem him seriously contend for the title, although it wouldn't be a shock to see him reach the semis.
The other two, Djokovic and Murray, have contested the past two major finals, with Djokovic winning both, completing the Career Grand Slam in the process, bagging his 12th major altogether, and by the way, he now holds all 4 titles, in case you haven't heard. I feel like Djokovic may be in for a minor letdown after all that he accomplished at Roland Garros and Murray goes deep at Wimbledon every year. I feel like a Djokovic/Murray is almost a given, and despite Murray's struggles recently against Djokovic, he did beat the Serb to win both his majors, and he has Lendl is his corner again. I certainly wouldn't be shocked for Djokovic to his 5th Wimbledon and 5th straight major, but I think Murray will pull it out this year for his home fans, against a slightly less motivated Djokovic.
That really leaves this discussion to the merits of any potential semifinalists. Federer got a nice draw and it's certainly conceivable he'll advance to play Djokovic, but at this point no one would be surprised to him lose to say Monfils in the 4th round. The Wawrinka quarter is wide open especially because it has Thiem at the top, but also Berdych, who seems to have avoided news this entire year, Zverev, and Tomic, who been to the quarters here before, albeit 5 years ago. There's plenty more questions than answers regarding other high seeds Gasquet (at 7?), Nishikori, and even Raonic, so there's opportunity for other players to reach the quarters. Kyrgios is unfortunate to have been drawn near Murray. Cilic, Karlovic, Anderson, and Goffin are among those who I feel have a good shot at a quarterfinal.
I feel like this is setting up to be a real disappointment for Americans. Isner had a poor grass season although he did reach the 4th round in Paris, Querrey is in decent form but near Djokovic, and Sock has been underwhelming. Johnson has a nice draw with Jaziri but then possibly Monfils, and you wonder if he'll be tired after his exploits in Nottingham. Fritz has drawn Wawrinka in round 1.
Women
50 weeks ago Serena had won Wimbledon and held all four majors. Now she is a loss this fortnight away from holding none. Can she hold it together at the end at this tournament and with the job? Again, the volatility among the other top players benefits her, but she's ran into in form Kerber and Muguruza in Australia and France and lost. That could be the case again. However, I do think she'll find a way to get it done this time and tie Graf's record.
Again, the other top women have their issues and few can relied upon to absolutely go deep. Muguruza made the final last year but just won Roland Garros so her mind will likely be elsewhere. She just lost in the first round in Mallorca. Azarenka has pulled out, Radwanska has been up and down this grass court season, Kvitova has not been good this year, Kerber is maybe a contender? My commentary would be similar for almost any woman in the top 25. In case you're wondering, the grass court winners this year have been Keys, Pliskova, Garcia, and Vandeweghe. Maybe that's where you look to find some quarterfinalists? Certainly possible, especially for the 2 American women as they were both in the quarters last year and both have decent draws (Vinci and Halep nearby). Now we're forgetting about a certain 5-time champion, and Venus has a nice draw as well (unless the Kasatkina we saw in the spring reemerges) and some are predicting a sisters final. I think it's possible but just when you think Venus will do something she goes out meekly in round 1 or 2.
This could be another crazy tournament for the women but a fun one, as there are so many middling players who can catch fire and beat someone. And for an American fan, I think it's very possible to see 4 Americans in the quarters. There will certainly be some breakthroughs as there are 18 Yanks in the draw including qualifier Boserup, making her slam debut at age 24, and Duval after battling back from cancer. One first round match to watch is grass courter Riske against out of form Vinci.
2015 Results
Djokovic def. Federer
SF - Murray, Gasquet
QF - Wawrinka, Cilic, Simon, Pospisil
Serena def. Muguruza
SF - Sharapova, Radwanska
QF - Azarenka (w/d), Keys, Bacsinszky, Vandeweghe
Former champions in the draw:
-Federer, Djokovic, Murray
-Venus, Serena, Kvitova
Former junior champions in the draw:
-Federer, Mahut, Monfils, Chardy, Young, Dimitrov, Kuznetsov, Saville
-Flipkens, Bondarenko, A.Radwanska, Wozniacki, Robson, Kr.Pliskova, Bouchard, Bencic, Ostapenko
Men
Only 3 men have contested the final the past 3 years, and they are the top 3 seeds this year. One of those men, Federer, has been injured much of the year and was beaten on grass this year by Thiem and Zverev, so I would be surprised to seem him seriously contend for the title, although it wouldn't be a shock to see him reach the semis.
The other two, Djokovic and Murray, have contested the past two major finals, with Djokovic winning both, completing the Career Grand Slam in the process, bagging his 12th major altogether, and by the way, he now holds all 4 titles, in case you haven't heard. I feel like Djokovic may be in for a minor letdown after all that he accomplished at Roland Garros and Murray goes deep at Wimbledon every year. I feel like a Djokovic/Murray is almost a given, and despite Murray's struggles recently against Djokovic, he did beat the Serb to win both his majors, and he has Lendl is his corner again. I certainly wouldn't be shocked for Djokovic to his 5th Wimbledon and 5th straight major, but I think Murray will pull it out this year for his home fans, against a slightly less motivated Djokovic.
That really leaves this discussion to the merits of any potential semifinalists. Federer got a nice draw and it's certainly conceivable he'll advance to play Djokovic, but at this point no one would be surprised to him lose to say Monfils in the 4th round. The Wawrinka quarter is wide open especially because it has Thiem at the top, but also Berdych, who seems to have avoided news this entire year, Zverev, and Tomic, who been to the quarters here before, albeit 5 years ago. There's plenty more questions than answers regarding other high seeds Gasquet (at 7?), Nishikori, and even Raonic, so there's opportunity for other players to reach the quarters. Kyrgios is unfortunate to have been drawn near Murray. Cilic, Karlovic, Anderson, and Goffin are among those who I feel have a good shot at a quarterfinal.
I feel like this is setting up to be a real disappointment for Americans. Isner had a poor grass season although he did reach the 4th round in Paris, Querrey is in decent form but near Djokovic, and Sock has been underwhelming. Johnson has a nice draw with Jaziri but then possibly Monfils, and you wonder if he'll be tired after his exploits in Nottingham. Fritz has drawn Wawrinka in round 1.
Women
50 weeks ago Serena had won Wimbledon and held all four majors. Now she is a loss this fortnight away from holding none. Can she hold it together at the end at this tournament and with the job? Again, the volatility among the other top players benefits her, but she's ran into in form Kerber and Muguruza in Australia and France and lost. That could be the case again. However, I do think she'll find a way to get it done this time and tie Graf's record.
Again, the other top women have their issues and few can relied upon to absolutely go deep. Muguruza made the final last year but just won Roland Garros so her mind will likely be elsewhere. She just lost in the first round in Mallorca. Azarenka has pulled out, Radwanska has been up and down this grass court season, Kvitova has not been good this year, Kerber is maybe a contender? My commentary would be similar for almost any woman in the top 25. In case you're wondering, the grass court winners this year have been Keys, Pliskova, Garcia, and Vandeweghe. Maybe that's where you look to find some quarterfinalists? Certainly possible, especially for the 2 American women as they were both in the quarters last year and both have decent draws (Vinci and Halep nearby). Now we're forgetting about a certain 5-time champion, and Venus has a nice draw as well (unless the Kasatkina we saw in the spring reemerges) and some are predicting a sisters final. I think it's possible but just when you think Venus will do something she goes out meekly in round 1 or 2.
This could be another crazy tournament for the women but a fun one, as there are so many middling players who can catch fire and beat someone. And for an American fan, I think it's very possible to see 4 Americans in the quarters. There will certainly be some breakthroughs as there are 18 Yanks in the draw including qualifier Boserup, making her slam debut at age 24, and Duval after battling back from cancer. One first round match to watch is grass courter Riske against out of form Vinci.
2015 Results
Djokovic def. Federer
SF - Murray, Gasquet
QF - Wawrinka, Cilic, Simon, Pospisil
Serena def. Muguruza
SF - Sharapova, Radwanska
QF - Azarenka (w/d), Keys, Bacsinszky, Vandeweghe
Former champions in the draw:
-Federer, Djokovic, Murray
-Venus, Serena, Kvitova
Former junior champions in the draw:
-Federer, Mahut, Monfils, Chardy, Young, Dimitrov, Kuznetsov, Saville
-Flipkens, Bondarenko, A.Radwanska, Wozniacki, Robson, Kr.Pliskova, Bouchard, Bencic, Ostapenko
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Roland Garros Preview 2016
I admit this post comes a little late, but with the limited action today due to weather (only 10 matches completed) and no seeds out, it is still appropriate.
Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams enter this edition of Roland Garros with the "favorite" tag applied, and rightfully so. When they are on their game, it is extreme difficult, if not impossible, for them to be beaten.
Men
As has often been the case in the past few years, there are few men who have a legitimate chance at winning this tournament. But Marin Cilic did break through to win the '14 US Open, so I suppose there is some small chance for "the field". I feel like there are only 3 men who can win Roland Garros this year: Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal. Maybe I am selling Wawrinka short, but despite winning 3 titles this year, he has flopped at the biggest events, so I would be surprised to see him in the final, if he can even get to the semis.
Djokovic would be the overwhelming favorite were it not 3 things: his Monte Carlo loss to Vesely, his Rome loss to Murray, and the play of Nadal at both Monte Carlo and Barcelona as well as his tight loss to Djokovic in Rome. Djokovic is still the favorite, of course, but one can see him losing to Nadal or Murray, at this tournament which he's never won.
It's debatable whether Murray or Nadal is the second favorite, both with Nadal being drawn into Djokovic's half, there's a decent chance Djokovic will have to go through both to win his first French Open. Murray probably has the slight advantage that he will (likely) get to play Djokovic after the world no. 1 first battles Nadal. As we saw in Rome, Djokovic can be vulnerable to fatigue. However, if Nadal were able to beat Djokovic, I think the Spaniard would prevail in the final.
All of this assumes that all three of these men will be waiting for one another in the later rounds, but there's little reason to suspect that won't be the case. Nishikori has had a very nice clay season but hasn't beaten the top players. I won't completely count out Wawrinka, but a run to the final Sunday would be surprising to me. The second tier of men's tennis (I'm talking primarily about Berdych, Ferrer, and Tsonga) after so much consistency the past few years behind the Big Four, has really dropped off this year and I expect most of them may fail to defend their seeds and reach the QF. Therefore, my dark horses of this tournament are those guys that have played well this year, and mostly a younger set: Kyrgios, Thiem, and Goffin. I'm expecting one of those guys to have a breakout slam, although Thiem has been drawn near Nadal. Interestingly, none of that trio has been drawn into Wawrinka's quarter, which along with providing some optimism for Stan, provides a large opportunity for someone. Can Raonic (who has quietly had a nice year), Cilic, or Sock take advantage?
I actually think this is the year Djokovic finally puts it all together and completes his career grand slam.
Women
This is such a wide, wide open tournament for the women. There's probably 20 women you wouldn't be surprised to see in the semis, but any of those same women losing in the first round wouldn't be a big shocker either. While Serena is the favorite, at enters the tournament after winning in Rome, she's as beatable as she has been is years, and clay is in theory her worst surface. I doubt she'll lose early this year, but there are plenty of women who could beat her in the later stages. It will depend how she's playing at the time. She lost 5 sets en route to the title last year but I'm not sure if that means she's due to lose or she knows how to overcome adversity and will do it again.
Beyond Serena, there are few top players who can be counted on to defend their seed. I do think Halep, after her Madrid title, is due for a deep run here. Kerber, the winner at Stuttgart (and of course the Australian Open) should be able to go deep but has a tricky first rounder against the in form Bertens, who won a title yesterday. Beyond those three, the top 10 is full of question marks.
Radwanska, Azarenka, and Kvitova have been plagued by injuries or poor play, Muruguza had a good run in Rome but has been otherwise inconsistent...and the list goes on. Let's focus on those lower ranked players who could make a nice run. Cibulkova has been very good the past few weeks, losing to Halep in the Rome final after beating Radwanska and others. Kuznetsova has been in good form recently and usually always plays well in Paris. Safarova seems to have put it back together in time to defend her finalist points. And if you're looking for a dark horse in the weak Muguruza/Kvitova quarter, look at 25th seed Begu, who is the only woman to reach the quarters in both Madrid and Rome, although I wonder if that means she'll be fatigued. There's a Bacsinszky, Keys, and Kasatkina in varying degrees of good form recently.
I have no idea what's going to happen in this women's draw, but it should be fun to sit back and watch. Maybe someone new will be holding up a trophy at the end. For what it's worth, my personal pick was Halep over Cibulkova in the final.
2015 Results
Wawrinka def. Djokovic
SF - Murray, Tsonga
QF - Federer (w/d), Nadal, Ferrer, Nishikori
Serena def. Safarova
SF - Ivanovic (no way that's happening again), Bacsinszky
QF - Errani, Svitolina, Muguruza, van Uytvanck (w/d)
Former champions in the draw:
-Nadal, Wawrinka
-Serena, Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Schiavone
Former junior champions in the draw:
-Mathieu, Gasquet, Wawrinka, Cilic, Klizan, Fratangelo (not much success on the ATP tour for recent junior Roland Garros champs)
-Dominguez Lino, Razzano, Radwanska, Cornet, Halep, Mladenovic, Svitolina, Beck, Kasatkina
Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams enter this edition of Roland Garros with the "favorite" tag applied, and rightfully so. When they are on their game, it is extreme difficult, if not impossible, for them to be beaten.
Men
As has often been the case in the past few years, there are few men who have a legitimate chance at winning this tournament. But Marin Cilic did break through to win the '14 US Open, so I suppose there is some small chance for "the field". I feel like there are only 3 men who can win Roland Garros this year: Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal. Maybe I am selling Wawrinka short, but despite winning 3 titles this year, he has flopped at the biggest events, so I would be surprised to see him in the final, if he can even get to the semis.
Djokovic would be the overwhelming favorite were it not 3 things: his Monte Carlo loss to Vesely, his Rome loss to Murray, and the play of Nadal at both Monte Carlo and Barcelona as well as his tight loss to Djokovic in Rome. Djokovic is still the favorite, of course, but one can see him losing to Nadal or Murray, at this tournament which he's never won.
It's debatable whether Murray or Nadal is the second favorite, both with Nadal being drawn into Djokovic's half, there's a decent chance Djokovic will have to go through both to win his first French Open. Murray probably has the slight advantage that he will (likely) get to play Djokovic after the world no. 1 first battles Nadal. As we saw in Rome, Djokovic can be vulnerable to fatigue. However, if Nadal were able to beat Djokovic, I think the Spaniard would prevail in the final.
All of this assumes that all three of these men will be waiting for one another in the later rounds, but there's little reason to suspect that won't be the case. Nishikori has had a very nice clay season but hasn't beaten the top players. I won't completely count out Wawrinka, but a run to the final Sunday would be surprising to me. The second tier of men's tennis (I'm talking primarily about Berdych, Ferrer, and Tsonga) after so much consistency the past few years behind the Big Four, has really dropped off this year and I expect most of them may fail to defend their seeds and reach the QF. Therefore, my dark horses of this tournament are those guys that have played well this year, and mostly a younger set: Kyrgios, Thiem, and Goffin. I'm expecting one of those guys to have a breakout slam, although Thiem has been drawn near Nadal. Interestingly, none of that trio has been drawn into Wawrinka's quarter, which along with providing some optimism for Stan, provides a large opportunity for someone. Can Raonic (who has quietly had a nice year), Cilic, or Sock take advantage?
I actually think this is the year Djokovic finally puts it all together and completes his career grand slam.
Women
This is such a wide, wide open tournament for the women. There's probably 20 women you wouldn't be surprised to see in the semis, but any of those same women losing in the first round wouldn't be a big shocker either. While Serena is the favorite, at enters the tournament after winning in Rome, she's as beatable as she has been is years, and clay is in theory her worst surface. I doubt she'll lose early this year, but there are plenty of women who could beat her in the later stages. It will depend how she's playing at the time. She lost 5 sets en route to the title last year but I'm not sure if that means she's due to lose or she knows how to overcome adversity and will do it again.
Beyond Serena, there are few top players who can be counted on to defend their seed. I do think Halep, after her Madrid title, is due for a deep run here. Kerber, the winner at Stuttgart (and of course the Australian Open) should be able to go deep but has a tricky first rounder against the in form Bertens, who won a title yesterday. Beyond those three, the top 10 is full of question marks.
Radwanska, Azarenka, and Kvitova have been plagued by injuries or poor play, Muruguza had a good run in Rome but has been otherwise inconsistent...and the list goes on. Let's focus on those lower ranked players who could make a nice run. Cibulkova has been very good the past few weeks, losing to Halep in the Rome final after beating Radwanska and others. Kuznetsova has been in good form recently and usually always plays well in Paris. Safarova seems to have put it back together in time to defend her finalist points. And if you're looking for a dark horse in the weak Muguruza/Kvitova quarter, look at 25th seed Begu, who is the only woman to reach the quarters in both Madrid and Rome, although I wonder if that means she'll be fatigued. There's a Bacsinszky, Keys, and Kasatkina in varying degrees of good form recently.
I have no idea what's going to happen in this women's draw, but it should be fun to sit back and watch. Maybe someone new will be holding up a trophy at the end. For what it's worth, my personal pick was Halep over Cibulkova in the final.
2015 Results
Wawrinka def. Djokovic
SF - Murray, Tsonga
QF - Federer (w/d), Nadal, Ferrer, Nishikori
Serena def. Safarova
SF - Ivanovic (no way that's happening again), Bacsinszky
QF - Errani, Svitolina, Muguruza, van Uytvanck (w/d)
Former champions in the draw:
-Nadal, Wawrinka
-Serena, Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Schiavone
Former junior champions in the draw:
-Mathieu, Gasquet, Wawrinka, Cilic, Klizan, Fratangelo (not much success on the ATP tour for recent junior Roland Garros champs)
-Dominguez Lino, Razzano, Radwanska, Cornet, Halep, Mladenovic, Svitolina, Beck, Kasatkina
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Australian Open Preview
Here's a few words on the Australian Open:
Men's Preview
I feel like this is really all about Djokovic. I give him a 70-75% chance of winning the event, then about 20% to Wawrinka, who is not in Djokovic's half and the only player to beat him at a major last year. After that, there's a small chance for Federer, Murray, and "the field". But honestly it's hard not to predict a Djokovic/Wawrinka final especially after both won tournaments in the first week of the season.
As far as dark horses, look at the Aussies Tomic and Kyrgios. Tomic has a fairly easy road to see Murray in the round of 16 and I like Kyrgios' chances in a potential round 3 battle with Berdych.
There are 14 American men in the draw including 3 seeds (Isner, Sock, and Johnson), 3 qualifiers (Fritz, Harrison, and Smyczek), a lucky loser (Frantangelo), a wild card (Rubin), and protected ranking (Baker). That leaves Querrey, Young, Ram, Krajicek, and Kudla to round out the Yank contingent. I'm not expecting huge things but I do think a few can get through to the 3rd round (high expectations I know). I was interested to see the teenaged Fritz after his challenger run last year but he's drawn Sock in round 1.
Women's Preview
I feel like this is a wide open tournament for the women with Serena's possible injury, not to mention the rest of top 10 pulling out of tournaments the last 2 weeks. Serena does have pretty decent draw so she might be able to play her way into form. But if she's a bit banged up you wonder if she can survive again. Radwanska and Azarenka come into the tournament in good form, having won titles, and are on opposite halves of the draw. I wouldn't be surprised to see one, or both of them, in the final. Kerber also had a nice warmup but got smoked by Azarenka but she should be able to at least make it to Vika or Muguruza. Given the injury issues I'm not expecting much from Muguruza, Sharapova, Kvitova, or even Halep, and Sharapova (last year's finalist) is in Serena's quarter.
For dark horses, I like the draw of Makarova, who made the semis last year, if she's fully healthy again. And Cibulkova is a dangerous unseeded player, near Kvitova and Mladenovic, finalist 2 years ago.
There are 17 (wow) American women in the draw including 4 seeds (Serena, Venus, Keys, and Stephens), a qualifier (Gibbs), a wild card (Crawford), and a protected ranking (Duval). That means there were 14 direct entries, the seeds and Riske, Davis, McHale, Tatishvili, Falconi, Brengle (4th round last year), Vandeweghe, King, Mattek-Sands, and Lepchenko. The seeds all have nice draws and a decent chance to reach the quarters but the unseeded players were handed mostly brutal draws with several playing seeds. A few will likely advance but I'm not expecting much from this tournament except from the seeds, all of which are former semifinalists.
Finally, here's the last eight from the '15 Aussie Open
Men
Djokovic def. Murray
SF - Wawrinka, Berdych
QF - Nadal, Nishikori, Raonic, Kyrgios
Women
Serena def. Sharapova
SF - Keys, Makarova
QF - Halep, Venus, Cibulkova, Bouchard
Men's Preview
I feel like this is really all about Djokovic. I give him a 70-75% chance of winning the event, then about 20% to Wawrinka, who is not in Djokovic's half and the only player to beat him at a major last year. After that, there's a small chance for Federer, Murray, and "the field". But honestly it's hard not to predict a Djokovic/Wawrinka final especially after both won tournaments in the first week of the season.
As far as dark horses, look at the Aussies Tomic and Kyrgios. Tomic has a fairly easy road to see Murray in the round of 16 and I like Kyrgios' chances in a potential round 3 battle with Berdych.
There are 14 American men in the draw including 3 seeds (Isner, Sock, and Johnson), 3 qualifiers (Fritz, Harrison, and Smyczek), a lucky loser (Frantangelo), a wild card (Rubin), and protected ranking (Baker). That leaves Querrey, Young, Ram, Krajicek, and Kudla to round out the Yank contingent. I'm not expecting huge things but I do think a few can get through to the 3rd round (high expectations I know). I was interested to see the teenaged Fritz after his challenger run last year but he's drawn Sock in round 1.
Women's Preview
I feel like this is a wide open tournament for the women with Serena's possible injury, not to mention the rest of top 10 pulling out of tournaments the last 2 weeks. Serena does have pretty decent draw so she might be able to play her way into form. But if she's a bit banged up you wonder if she can survive again. Radwanska and Azarenka come into the tournament in good form, having won titles, and are on opposite halves of the draw. I wouldn't be surprised to see one, or both of them, in the final. Kerber also had a nice warmup but got smoked by Azarenka but she should be able to at least make it to Vika or Muguruza. Given the injury issues I'm not expecting much from Muguruza, Sharapova, Kvitova, or even Halep, and Sharapova (last year's finalist) is in Serena's quarter.
For dark horses, I like the draw of Makarova, who made the semis last year, if she's fully healthy again. And Cibulkova is a dangerous unseeded player, near Kvitova and Mladenovic, finalist 2 years ago.
There are 17 (wow) American women in the draw including 4 seeds (Serena, Venus, Keys, and Stephens), a qualifier (Gibbs), a wild card (Crawford), and a protected ranking (Duval). That means there were 14 direct entries, the seeds and Riske, Davis, McHale, Tatishvili, Falconi, Brengle (4th round last year), Vandeweghe, King, Mattek-Sands, and Lepchenko. The seeds all have nice draws and a decent chance to reach the quarters but the unseeded players were handed mostly brutal draws with several playing seeds. A few will likely advance but I'm not expecting much from this tournament except from the seeds, all of which are former semifinalists.
Finally, here's the last eight from the '15 Aussie Open
Men
Djokovic def. Murray
SF - Wawrinka, Berdych
QF - Nadal, Nishikori, Raonic, Kyrgios
Women
Serena def. Sharapova
SF - Keys, Makarova
QF - Halep, Venus, Cibulkova, Bouchard
Friday, August 28, 2015
Quick US Open Preview
A few quick thoughts on the US Open.
Men
I think there's three who can win: Djokovic, Murray, Federer. Roger is in the best form but this is a major and he can't seem to get over the hump at them anymore.
Wawrinka or Nishikori could get hot and spoil the party.
A ways down to Nadal, then another big ways down to anyone else.
Women
It is Serena's tournament to lose, but I keep going back to the fact that she lost 5 sets at the French Open to think that she is beatable.
Halep is the clear second favorite, thanks to her nice US Open series, but she's still well below Serena.
Then there is everyone else. I fell like Bencic or Bacsinszky or even a Stephens or Tsurenko is just as likely to win this title as Sharapova or Kvitova or Ivanovic. If Serena and Halep lose early, they almost have a draw ceremony to determine the champion.
-I feel like the American men are poised for a few good stories, someone is going to make the second week (I hope)
-The American women seem to be taking a few steps back, save Stephens. I expect that to continue although the sheer volume would allow for a few upsets and maybe 4 or 5 in round 3. Gone are the days of all these exciting young players with lots of upside springing upsets all over the grounds at a major.
-Dark horses: Ernests Gulbis and Daria Gavrilova
Men
I think there's three who can win: Djokovic, Murray, Federer. Roger is in the best form but this is a major and he can't seem to get over the hump at them anymore.
Wawrinka or Nishikori could get hot and spoil the party.
A ways down to Nadal, then another big ways down to anyone else.
Women
It is Serena's tournament to lose, but I keep going back to the fact that she lost 5 sets at the French Open to think that she is beatable.
Halep is the clear second favorite, thanks to her nice US Open series, but she's still well below Serena.
Then there is everyone else. I fell like Bencic or Bacsinszky or even a Stephens or Tsurenko is just as likely to win this title as Sharapova or Kvitova or Ivanovic. If Serena and Halep lose early, they almost have a draw ceremony to determine the champion.
-I feel like the American men are poised for a few good stories, someone is going to make the second week (I hope)
-The American women seem to be taking a few steps back, save Stephens. I expect that to continue although the sheer volume would allow for a few upsets and maybe 4 or 5 in round 3. Gone are the days of all these exciting young players with lots of upside springing upsets all over the grounds at a major.
-Dark horses: Ernests Gulbis and Daria Gavrilova
Saturday, June 27, 2015
Wimbledon Preview 2015
With the extra week between the French Open and Wimbledon, it seems like an eternity has passed Stan Wawrinka shocked us all by winning the men's title and Serena Williams adding yet another title to her sterling resume. Here's my thoughts on the upcoming tournament.
Women's Preview
Serena Williams is again the favorite, as she is any time she steps on a tennis court. But it's hard to believe Serena has won only one of the past 4 Wimbledons while the world no. 2 has won two of them. If Serena is on her game, one would think she will the tournament, although the 5 dropped sets at the French Open sprinkle some doubt upon the issue. Serena has certainly lost several times in the past when she is overwhelming favorite entering a tournament, so it's certainly possible someone else could emerge.
If the tournament will not be won by Serena, there are really about 20 names I could toss into a hat and each would have equal chance of being chosen. Below Serena, none of the women of have been very consistent though most have had their moments. The one woman that does rise above the others is Petra Kvitova, thanks only to her two titles at Wimbledon in the last 4 years and the fact that she hadn't been very good in '14 prior to winning Wimbledon. If she's able to survive into the second week, she'll certainly be a threat to retain her title.
Others members of the top 10 such as Halep, Sharapova, Wozniacki, and Makarova haven't been too special over the past few weeks. Ivanovic had a nice French Open but how many really expect her form to hold up? Safarova and Kerber both enter the tournament in good form (Lucie from her French Open final and Kerber from her Birmingham title with wins over Pliskova, Lisicki, and Jankovic. Both are former Wimbledon semifinalists and they would be dark horse picks if there is such a thing in a such a wide open tournament.
Continuing down the rankings there are really a bunch of uninspiring names, all with flaws and some (Bouchard and Radwanska) with miserable seasons to date, though each of those names has been to a Wimbledon final. Likely this will be another wild tournament with lots of upsets and several double-digit seeds still around in the quarters and semis. So buckle up and enjoy the ride!
Men
The men's side, on the other hand, still has its stability at the top, although more men have joined the usual quartet of suspects. I see this tournament as relatively wide open among the top 4 or 5 men.
Novak Djokovic enters after a disappointing end to his French Open, so while his form has been the best this year as evidenced by his Aussie Open and 5 Masters wins, you wonder where his head will be at and arguably grass is his worst surface. He'll also need to survive world no. 33 Kohlschreiber in the first round, who is a tougher that half of the seeded players would have been.
Roger Federer lost to Djokovic in the final a year ago, and has been in good form for most of the year. He just won in Halle. But I have a hard time believing Federer can win another major, or even beat other top 5 players in the late stages of a major. But he hasn't won 7 Wimbledons for nothing and he didn't *poof* appear at no. 2 in the world, so he still must be taken seriously
Andy Murray has been on fire getting married, losing just 1 match, and that in 5 sets over 2 days to Djokovic in the French Open semis. He is my pick to win this tournament. He always plays well at home on grass, is in amazing form, and has beaten both Djokovic and Federer in 5-set finals at SW19 (Djokovic at '13 Wimbledon, Federer at '12 Olympics). It's hard to envision him not getting the Federer in the SF, and then he's just 2 big matches away.
I'll actually put Wawrinka as the 4th favorite since despite Nadal's success in Stuttgart I have no confidence in his grass court abilities. The issue here is that grass is his worst surface and you wonder where his mind is at after winning the French Open. Just getting to Djokovic in the SF would be a success given his likely frame of mind. But maybe he'll surprise me.
Then there's the 2nd tier of candidates like Nishikori, Raonic, Tsonga, etc, and maybe we even throw Nadal in here since he has won the event twice. I realize Wawrinka has won 2 majors and somehow Cilic is the reigning US Open champion, but I will be very surprised if it's not of the above four lifting the trophy on the final Sunday, and realistically probably Djokovic or Murray.
So on that note, here's last year's quarterfinalists, while wondering how far down the rankings Bouchard to set to plummet.
Men's final: Djokovic def. Federer
-Semis: Raonic, Dimitrov
-Quarters: Murray, Wawrinka, Cilic, Kyrgios
Women's final: Kvitova def. Bouchard
-Semis: Halep, Safarova
-Quarters: Makarova, Kerber, Lisicki, Strycova
Women's Preview
Serena Williams is again the favorite, as she is any time she steps on a tennis court. But it's hard to believe Serena has won only one of the past 4 Wimbledons while the world no. 2 has won two of them. If Serena is on her game, one would think she will the tournament, although the 5 dropped sets at the French Open sprinkle some doubt upon the issue. Serena has certainly lost several times in the past when she is overwhelming favorite entering a tournament, so it's certainly possible someone else could emerge.
If the tournament will not be won by Serena, there are really about 20 names I could toss into a hat and each would have equal chance of being chosen. Below Serena, none of the women of have been very consistent though most have had their moments. The one woman that does rise above the others is Petra Kvitova, thanks only to her two titles at Wimbledon in the last 4 years and the fact that she hadn't been very good in '14 prior to winning Wimbledon. If she's able to survive into the second week, she'll certainly be a threat to retain her title.
Others members of the top 10 such as Halep, Sharapova, Wozniacki, and Makarova haven't been too special over the past few weeks. Ivanovic had a nice French Open but how many really expect her form to hold up? Safarova and Kerber both enter the tournament in good form (Lucie from her French Open final and Kerber from her Birmingham title with wins over Pliskova, Lisicki, and Jankovic. Both are former Wimbledon semifinalists and they would be dark horse picks if there is such a thing in a such a wide open tournament.
Continuing down the rankings there are really a bunch of uninspiring names, all with flaws and some (Bouchard and Radwanska) with miserable seasons to date, though each of those names has been to a Wimbledon final. Likely this will be another wild tournament with lots of upsets and several double-digit seeds still around in the quarters and semis. So buckle up and enjoy the ride!
Men
The men's side, on the other hand, still has its stability at the top, although more men have joined the usual quartet of suspects. I see this tournament as relatively wide open among the top 4 or 5 men.
Novak Djokovic enters after a disappointing end to his French Open, so while his form has been the best this year as evidenced by his Aussie Open and 5 Masters wins, you wonder where his head will be at and arguably grass is his worst surface. He'll also need to survive world no. 33 Kohlschreiber in the first round, who is a tougher that half of the seeded players would have been.
Roger Federer lost to Djokovic in the final a year ago, and has been in good form for most of the year. He just won in Halle. But I have a hard time believing Federer can win another major, or even beat other top 5 players in the late stages of a major. But he hasn't won 7 Wimbledons for nothing and he didn't *poof* appear at no. 2 in the world, so he still must be taken seriously
Andy Murray has been on fire getting married, losing just 1 match, and that in 5 sets over 2 days to Djokovic in the French Open semis. He is my pick to win this tournament. He always plays well at home on grass, is in amazing form, and has beaten both Djokovic and Federer in 5-set finals at SW19 (Djokovic at '13 Wimbledon, Federer at '12 Olympics). It's hard to envision him not getting the Federer in the SF, and then he's just 2 big matches away.
I'll actually put Wawrinka as the 4th favorite since despite Nadal's success in Stuttgart I have no confidence in his grass court abilities. The issue here is that grass is his worst surface and you wonder where his mind is at after winning the French Open. Just getting to Djokovic in the SF would be a success given his likely frame of mind. But maybe he'll surprise me.
Then there's the 2nd tier of candidates like Nishikori, Raonic, Tsonga, etc, and maybe we even throw Nadal in here since he has won the event twice. I realize Wawrinka has won 2 majors and somehow Cilic is the reigning US Open champion, but I will be very surprised if it's not of the above four lifting the trophy on the final Sunday, and realistically probably Djokovic or Murray.
So on that note, here's last year's quarterfinalists, while wondering how far down the rankings Bouchard to set to plummet.
Men's final: Djokovic def. Federer
-Semis: Raonic, Dimitrov
-Quarters: Murray, Wawrinka, Cilic, Kyrgios
Women's final: Kvitova def. Bouchard
-Semis: Halep, Safarova
-Quarters: Makarova, Kerber, Lisicki, Strycova
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
French Open Preview 2015
Just a few days until the French Open begins for 2015, the culmination of the clay season. While the men's side seems like it may be only a formality, the women's side has the potential to bring chaos if the tournament turns out anything like Madrid or Rome. Let's begin there.
Women's Preview
Serena Williams is the favorite to win this tournament, but not an overwhelming one. I feel like there is about a 30% chance she will win but it is possible she get upset somewhere along the line, this is clay after all, and she's ONLY won the French twice. She also could get beaten down by injuries. Behind Serena, there is no clear #2 given the struggles Sharapova has had until Rome and the total lack of anything resembling consistency by any of the top players, outside of two of the names you'll below.
One of the those names is Simona Halep, but she's even had her ups and downs, but righted her ship by reaching the semis in Rome. I have her second on this list because she's one of only a handful of players who can beat Serena AND win the tournament. She's beaten Serena before, clay is her best surface, and she won a set in the final last year.
My co-third favorites are Sharapova and Suarez Navarro, the former because of her clay prowess post-surgery and win in Rome, the latter because of her amazing record this, a ridiculous 10 WTA QF appearances and a 31-10 record already. I list them together because I don't believe either has any chance against Serena, but both can easily be the favorite against any other player in the draw, save possibly Halep. Plus they just played a competitive 3-set final in Rome.
My final player who I think has a legitimate chance to win the tournament is Petra Kvitova. She caught fire in Madrid, beat Serena and won the tournament, so she's got a shot here. There's an argument to be made to rank her higher on this list but Sharapova is the reigning French Open champion, Suarez Navarro has beaten her 3 times this year, including last week in Rome, and Halep has been by far the more consistent player since last year's Wimbledon.
I feel like there are these 5, and then the field. I did want to call out two names from the field: Victoria Azarenka and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Both winners of 2 majors (Kuznetsova one at the French albeit 6 years ago) but both in relatively good form. Azarenka all but beat Serena in Madrid, and Kuznetsova is red-hot after her run to the Madrid final. Both would be a reach to win the title, but given their current form they stand ahead of the field.
Because really, who is else is there? A look at the quarterfinalists in Madrid and Rome will tell you all you need to know. Wozniacki, Ivanovic, Kerber, Radwanska, etc have been so up and down this year. The door is open for a younger player to make a nice run but even they have questions. Pliskova hasn't been good on clay, and Muguruza hasn't been real good all of 2015. This really is the potential to be a wild tournament, but I think 1 or 2 of the five I listed will survive to reach the final and win the trophy.
Men
This, to me, is really all about Novak Djokovic, but then below him, the Big 4, which again are towering above the competition. I've also been slow to not endorse Nadal as the favorite at this tournament where he's only lost once in what, 10 years now? But this year Djokovic has been has been head and shoulders ahead of everyone else, save to Federer in Dubai, and Nadal has not looked very good, even at his former bastions of Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome. I think is the year Djokovic wins the French Open and completes his career grand slam, and why not, makes a run at the calendar year Slam.
Nadal is still probably the second favorite, given his head-to-head with Federer, though the blowout loss to Murray in Madrid makes one wonder. After all, he's won this event NINE times, occasionally coming with suspect form. A problem here though is his ranking, at #7, depending on the draw he may have to go through Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, which would be brutal. The worst case for Nadal would be if he were drawn Murray, because then he would guaranteed to have all 3 in his path (assuming they made it to him of course). The best case would obviously be to be in Berdych's quarter in Federer's half, or even in Federer's quarter if Murray were in the opposite half. But any way you slice it, Nadal will need to up his game to win this tournament for a 10th time.
Federer seems to be in pretty good form, given his win in Istanbul and final in Rome, albeit sandwiching a loss to Kyrgios. One could even make the argument that he has a better chance at this point to beat Djokovic than Nadal, which may be saying simply that Djokovic has little chance to be beat. After all, he has beaten Djokovic this year. But Federer will be desperately hoping Nadal lands in Djokovic's half, because even given the form of the two, I have little confidence in Federer being able to beat Nadal especially on clay.
And there is Murray, a man who never won a clay title as a single man, is now 10-0 with 2 titles on the surface after getting hitched, also with a win over Nadal. This moves Murray into the conversation of potential winners if Djokovic slips. We will see if the Murray renaissance is for real, Djokovic or Federer will likely be waiting in the semis, but may also have to hurdle Nadal or even Ferrer to get there. But he's got to optimistic after his runs in Munich and Madrid.
Beyond the big 4, it's not happening. Berdych, Ferrer, and Raonic have had good seasons but you're going to try to convince me they're going to beat 2 or 3 of the above? Nope.
So on that note, here's last year's quarterfinalists, while I try to figure how on earth Ernests Gulbis (1-11 in 2015) managed to reach the semis.
Men's final: Nadal def. Djokovic
-Semis: Murray, Gulbis
-Quarters: Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Monfils
Women's final: Sharapova def. Halep
-Semis: Bouchard, Petkovic
-Quarters: Suarez Navarro, Errani, Muguruza, Kuznetsova
Women's Preview
Serena Williams is the favorite to win this tournament, but not an overwhelming one. I feel like there is about a 30% chance she will win but it is possible she get upset somewhere along the line, this is clay after all, and she's ONLY won the French twice. She also could get beaten down by injuries. Behind Serena, there is no clear #2 given the struggles Sharapova has had until Rome and the total lack of anything resembling consistency by any of the top players, outside of two of the names you'll below.
One of the those names is Simona Halep, but she's even had her ups and downs, but righted her ship by reaching the semis in Rome. I have her second on this list because she's one of only a handful of players who can beat Serena AND win the tournament. She's beaten Serena before, clay is her best surface, and she won a set in the final last year.
My co-third favorites are Sharapova and Suarez Navarro, the former because of her clay prowess post-surgery and win in Rome, the latter because of her amazing record this, a ridiculous 10 WTA QF appearances and a 31-10 record already. I list them together because I don't believe either has any chance against Serena, but both can easily be the favorite against any other player in the draw, save possibly Halep. Plus they just played a competitive 3-set final in Rome.
My final player who I think has a legitimate chance to win the tournament is Petra Kvitova. She caught fire in Madrid, beat Serena and won the tournament, so she's got a shot here. There's an argument to be made to rank her higher on this list but Sharapova is the reigning French Open champion, Suarez Navarro has beaten her 3 times this year, including last week in Rome, and Halep has been by far the more consistent player since last year's Wimbledon.
I feel like there are these 5, and then the field. I did want to call out two names from the field: Victoria Azarenka and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Both winners of 2 majors (Kuznetsova one at the French albeit 6 years ago) but both in relatively good form. Azarenka all but beat Serena in Madrid, and Kuznetsova is red-hot after her run to the Madrid final. Both would be a reach to win the title, but given their current form they stand ahead of the field.
Because really, who is else is there? A look at the quarterfinalists in Madrid and Rome will tell you all you need to know. Wozniacki, Ivanovic, Kerber, Radwanska, etc have been so up and down this year. The door is open for a younger player to make a nice run but even they have questions. Pliskova hasn't been good on clay, and Muguruza hasn't been real good all of 2015. This really is the potential to be a wild tournament, but I think 1 or 2 of the five I listed will survive to reach the final and win the trophy.
Men
This, to me, is really all about Novak Djokovic, but then below him, the Big 4, which again are towering above the competition. I've also been slow to not endorse Nadal as the favorite at this tournament where he's only lost once in what, 10 years now? But this year Djokovic has been has been head and shoulders ahead of everyone else, save to Federer in Dubai, and Nadal has not looked very good, even at his former bastions of Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome. I think is the year Djokovic wins the French Open and completes his career grand slam, and why not, makes a run at the calendar year Slam.
Nadal is still probably the second favorite, given his head-to-head with Federer, though the blowout loss to Murray in Madrid makes one wonder. After all, he's won this event NINE times, occasionally coming with suspect form. A problem here though is his ranking, at #7, depending on the draw he may have to go through Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, which would be brutal. The worst case for Nadal would be if he were drawn Murray, because then he would guaranteed to have all 3 in his path (assuming they made it to him of course). The best case would obviously be to be in Berdych's quarter in Federer's half, or even in Federer's quarter if Murray were in the opposite half. But any way you slice it, Nadal will need to up his game to win this tournament for a 10th time.
Federer seems to be in pretty good form, given his win in Istanbul and final in Rome, albeit sandwiching a loss to Kyrgios. One could even make the argument that he has a better chance at this point to beat Djokovic than Nadal, which may be saying simply that Djokovic has little chance to be beat. After all, he has beaten Djokovic this year. But Federer will be desperately hoping Nadal lands in Djokovic's half, because even given the form of the two, I have little confidence in Federer being able to beat Nadal especially on clay.
And there is Murray, a man who never won a clay title as a single man, is now 10-0 with 2 titles on the surface after getting hitched, also with a win over Nadal. This moves Murray into the conversation of potential winners if Djokovic slips. We will see if the Murray renaissance is for real, Djokovic or Federer will likely be waiting in the semis, but may also have to hurdle Nadal or even Ferrer to get there. But he's got to optimistic after his runs in Munich and Madrid.
Beyond the big 4, it's not happening. Berdych, Ferrer, and Raonic have had good seasons but you're going to try to convince me they're going to beat 2 or 3 of the above? Nope.
So on that note, here's last year's quarterfinalists, while I try to figure how on earth Ernests Gulbis (1-11 in 2015) managed to reach the semis.
Men's final: Nadal def. Djokovic
-Semis: Murray, Gulbis
-Quarters: Berdych, Raonic, Ferrer, Monfils
Women's final: Sharapova def. Halep
-Semis: Bouchard, Petkovic
-Quarters: Suarez Navarro, Errani, Muguruza, Kuznetsova
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Aussie Open Preview
Here is my brief preview, or more like notes, on the 2015 Australian Open...
Here are the big points defenders for last year:
Men
F - Wawrinka def. Nadal
SF - Federer, Berdych
QF - Djokovic, Murray, Ferrer, Dimitrov
Women
F - Li def. Cibulkova
SF - Radwanska, Bouchard
QF - Halep, Ivanovic, Pennetta, Azarenka
Former men's champs in the draw: Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka
Former boy's champs in the draw: Baghdatis, Monfils, Young, Tomic, Bhambri, Vesely, Saville, Kyrgios
Former girl's champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Jankovic, Zahlavova Strycova, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Ka.Pliskova, Mestach, Townsend, Konjuh
American participants (7 men, 17 women), from top to bottom in the draw - no qualifiers:
-19-Isner, w-Kudla, Young, Querrey, Johnson, q-Smyczek, q-Russell
-1-Serena, Gibbs, q-Tatishvili, Stephens, Townsend, Keys, Vandeweghe, w-Falconi, Brengle, Davis, 18-Venus, 30-Lepchenko, Rogers, Riske, Min, Mattek-Sands, McHale
First time seeds:20-Goffin, 27-Cuevas, 22-Ka.Pliskova, 26-Svitolina, 31-Diyas, 32-Bencic
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Djokovic vs Raonic
-Wawrinka vs Nishikori
-Nadal vs Berdych
-Federer vs Murray
-Serena vs Wozniacki
-Kvitova vs Radwanska
-Halep vs Ivanovic
-Sharapova vs Bouchard
Battle for #1:
Men - Djokovic has a sizable lead and will maintain #1 if he reaches the semis. If he loses before the semis, Federer can take #1 if he wins the title.
Women - 4 players in the running (Serena 7786, Sharapova 7105, Halep 6360, Kvitova 6151). If Sharapova wins the title, she would be world no. 1. For Halep or Kvitova to get there, Serena and Sharapova (in Kvitova's case) would need to lose fairly early one.
My quick predictions:
-I have picked Djokovic to win the title but I wouldn't be surprised in Wawrinka was able to beat him in the SF and defend his title. Nadal will get more dangerous as the tournament goes on if he can get past Youzhny and then potentially Rosol. I wouldn't like his chances though against Djokovic.
-Serena is probably the favorite but there is enough question marks to say this is a really wide open tournament. I've actually picked Wozniacki to finally get past Serena (in the QF) and win her 1st major. The big wild card here is Azarenka, who players Stephens and then possibly Wozniacki. Also look out for Safarova in the bottom half.
-The Americans actually have a favorable draw for the men and women with several playing qualifiers. Look for a number of women to reach the 3rd and even 4th rounds (they have the 2 highest ranked unseeded players: Stephens and Keys). Also I like Venus to reach the QF at least. I don't expect much from the men since they are far too inconsistent and there is only 7 of them draw (only 4 by direct entry which has to be some kind of record low) but most of them, Isner and Johnson in particular, have an opportunity.
Here are the big points defenders for last year:
Men
F - Wawrinka def. Nadal
SF - Federer, Berdych
QF - Djokovic, Murray, Ferrer, Dimitrov
Women
F - Li def. Cibulkova
SF - Radwanska, Bouchard
QF - Halep, Ivanovic, Pennetta, Azarenka
Former men's champs in the draw: Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka
Former boy's champs in the draw: Baghdatis, Monfils, Young, Tomic, Bhambri, Vesely, Saville, Kyrgios
Former girl's champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Jankovic, Zahlavova Strycova, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Ka.Pliskova, Mestach, Townsend, Konjuh
American participants (7 men, 17 women), from top to bottom in the draw - no qualifiers:
-19-Isner, w-Kudla, Young, Querrey, Johnson, q-Smyczek, q-Russell
-1-Serena, Gibbs, q-Tatishvili, Stephens, Townsend, Keys, Vandeweghe, w-Falconi, Brengle, Davis, 18-Venus, 30-Lepchenko, Rogers, Riske, Min, Mattek-Sands, McHale
First time seeds:20-Goffin, 27-Cuevas, 22-Ka.Pliskova, 26-Svitolina, 31-Diyas, 32-Bencic
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Djokovic vs Raonic
-Wawrinka vs Nishikori
-Nadal vs Berdych
-Federer vs Murray
-Serena vs Wozniacki
-Kvitova vs Radwanska
-Halep vs Ivanovic
-Sharapova vs Bouchard
Battle for #1:
Men - Djokovic has a sizable lead and will maintain #1 if he reaches the semis. If he loses before the semis, Federer can take #1 if he wins the title.
Women - 4 players in the running (Serena 7786, Sharapova 7105, Halep 6360, Kvitova 6151). If Sharapova wins the title, she would be world no. 1. For Halep or Kvitova to get there, Serena and Sharapova (in Kvitova's case) would need to lose fairly early one.
My quick predictions:
-I have picked Djokovic to win the title but I wouldn't be surprised in Wawrinka was able to beat him in the SF and defend his title. Nadal will get more dangerous as the tournament goes on if he can get past Youzhny and then potentially Rosol. I wouldn't like his chances though against Djokovic.
-Serena is probably the favorite but there is enough question marks to say this is a really wide open tournament. I've actually picked Wozniacki to finally get past Serena (in the QF) and win her 1st major. The big wild card here is Azarenka, who players Stephens and then possibly Wozniacki. Also look out for Safarova in the bottom half.
-The Americans actually have a favorable draw for the men and women with several playing qualifiers. Look for a number of women to reach the 3rd and even 4th rounds (they have the 2 highest ranked unseeded players: Stephens and Keys). Also I like Venus to reach the QF at least. I don't expect much from the men since they are far too inconsistent and there is only 7 of them draw (only 4 by direct entry which has to be some kind of record low) but most of them, Isner and Johnson in particular, have an opportunity.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
ATP World Tour Finals Preview
The ATP World Tour Finals in London begin this Sunday with more new faces than usual, and really only 4 of the group of 6 to 8 that has owned the top 10 of men's tennis for several years. But when it gets down to it, one would be surprised if one of the usual suspects didn't win the tournament. Can any of the newcomers pull an upset and win an event dominated recently by Federer and Djokovic? Here are the facts on the 8 participants:
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 10,010 pts - 57-8 with 6 titles including Wimbledon - 8th appearance ('07-'13), 19-9 record, best result '08,'12,'13 champion
2) Roger Federer (SUI) - 8700 pts - 68-11 with 5 titles - 13th appearance ('02-'13), 44-11 record, best result '03,'04,'06,'07,'10,'11 champion
3) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 6835 pts - injured, withdrew
4) Stan Wawrinka (SUI) - 4895 pts - 36-15 with 3 titles including the Aussie Open - 2nd appearance ('13), 2-2 record, best result '13 semis
5) Kei Nishikori (JPN) - 4625 pts - 52-12 with 4 titles - 1st appearance
6) Andy Murray (GBR) - 4475 pts - 58-18 with 3 titles - 6th appearance ('08-'12), 9-7 record, best result '08,'10,'12 semis
7) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 4465 pts - 54-20 with 2 titles - 5th appearance ('10-'13), 5-8 record, best result '11 semis
8) Milos Raonic (CAN) - 4440 pts - 49-18 with 1 title - 1st appearance
9) Marin Cilic (CRO) - 4150 pts - 54-18 with 4 titles including the US Open - 1st appearance
-Ferrer and Lopez (?) are the alternates
-The 8 contestants hail from 8 different countries. Nishikori and Raonic are the first from their countries to qualify.
-The '13 contestants were Djokovic (W), Nadal (F), Federer and Wawrinka (SF), Berdych, Del Potro, Ferrer, and Gasquet
-Only Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka, and Berdych made it both this year and last. Nadal and Murray qualified but were injured one of the two years.
Groups:
A - Djokovic, Wawrinka, Berdych, Cilic
B - Federer, Nishikori, Murray, Raonic
Both groups have dangerous candidates but one could argue Djokovic's matchups are easier than Federer's as the Swiss has lost to Murray several times, Nishikori a couple times, and just lost to Raonic (albeit for the first time) in Paris. Djokovic owns Berdych and Cilic, and also Wawrinka until recently. Wawrinka is not in great form so I think Djokovic will advance from his group easily. Berdych is probably the most likely player to finish second in the group given the question marks about Cilic's health and Wawrinka's form. Federer should be able to advance from the group but it is possible he loses a match. I think he beats Murray but could fall to one of the others. I doubt anyone goes undefeated so this group could get a little crazy. I'm going to go with Murray advancing, somehow able to find his form in front of the home crowd. He's played fairly well recently but hasn't been able to knock off many top players other than Ferrer (several times).
I'm going to with the safe pick of Djokovic vs Federer in the final. The biggest obstacle to this is if Federer finishes second in his group and would then meet the Djoker in the semis. I like Djokovic in this final because I don't have much confidence in Federer anymore in the biggest matches and the Serb is in fine form (although the same could be said of Shanghai so I won't count the Swiss out).
Finally, Djokovic needs just one win or one Federer loss to wrap up the year end no. 1 ranking.
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 10,010 pts - 57-8 with 6 titles including Wimbledon - 8th appearance ('07-'13), 19-9 record, best result '08,'12,'13 champion
2) Roger Federer (SUI) - 8700 pts - 68-11 with 5 titles - 13th appearance ('02-'13), 44-11 record, best result '03,'04,'06,'07,'10,'11 champion
3) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 6835 pts - injured, withdrew
4) Stan Wawrinka (SUI) - 4895 pts - 36-15 with 3 titles including the Aussie Open - 2nd appearance ('13), 2-2 record, best result '13 semis
5) Kei Nishikori (JPN) - 4625 pts - 52-12 with 4 titles - 1st appearance
6) Andy Murray (GBR) - 4475 pts - 58-18 with 3 titles - 6th appearance ('08-'12), 9-7 record, best result '08,'10,'12 semis
7) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 4465 pts - 54-20 with 2 titles - 5th appearance ('10-'13), 5-8 record, best result '11 semis
8) Milos Raonic (CAN) - 4440 pts - 49-18 with 1 title - 1st appearance
9) Marin Cilic (CRO) - 4150 pts - 54-18 with 4 titles including the US Open - 1st appearance
-Ferrer and Lopez (?) are the alternates
-The 8 contestants hail from 8 different countries. Nishikori and Raonic are the first from their countries to qualify.
-The '13 contestants were Djokovic (W), Nadal (F), Federer and Wawrinka (SF), Berdych, Del Potro, Ferrer, and Gasquet
-Only Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka, and Berdych made it both this year and last. Nadal and Murray qualified but were injured one of the two years.
Groups:
A - Djokovic, Wawrinka, Berdych, Cilic
B - Federer, Nishikori, Murray, Raonic
Both groups have dangerous candidates but one could argue Djokovic's matchups are easier than Federer's as the Swiss has lost to Murray several times, Nishikori a couple times, and just lost to Raonic (albeit for the first time) in Paris. Djokovic owns Berdych and Cilic, and also Wawrinka until recently. Wawrinka is not in great form so I think Djokovic will advance from his group easily. Berdych is probably the most likely player to finish second in the group given the question marks about Cilic's health and Wawrinka's form. Federer should be able to advance from the group but it is possible he loses a match. I think he beats Murray but could fall to one of the others. I doubt anyone goes undefeated so this group could get a little crazy. I'm going to go with Murray advancing, somehow able to find his form in front of the home crowd. He's played fairly well recently but hasn't been able to knock off many top players other than Ferrer (several times).
I'm going to with the safe pick of Djokovic vs Federer in the final. The biggest obstacle to this is if Federer finishes second in his group and would then meet the Djoker in the semis. I like Djokovic in this final because I don't have much confidence in Federer anymore in the biggest matches and the Serb is in fine form (although the same could be said of Shanghai so I won't count the Swiss out).
Finally, Djokovic needs just one win or one Federer loss to wrap up the year end no. 1 ranking.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
WTA Finals Preview
The WTA Finals in Singapore will have a slightly different flavor this year as a few younger players will be making their debut and we see return of former no. 1's Ivanovic and Wozniacki. Everyone in the field has contested a slam final at one point or another, 6 of them this year (Aussie Open finalists Cibulkova and the now retired Li the only two not in the field). We also won't see Azarenka because of her injuries. But here's a few stats on 2015's octet:
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 7146 pts - 48-7 record with 6 titles including the US Open - 8 previous appearances (25-5 record, '01,'09,'12,'13 champion)
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - 6680 pts - 48-11 record with 4 titles including the French Open - 6 previous appearances (17-8 record, '04 champion)
3) Petra Kvitova (CZE) - 5597 pts - 40-14 record with 3 titles including Wimbledon - 3 previous appearances (7-3 record, '11 champion)
4) Simona Halep (ROU) - 5403 pts - 43-14 record with 2 titles - 1st Finals appearance
5) Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) - 4506 pts - 45-20 record with 1 title - 1st Finals appearance
6) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 4441 pts - 46-19 record with 1 title - 5 previous appearances (5-7 record, best result '12 semis)
7) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) - 4390 pts - 56-16 record with 4 titles - 2 previous appearance (2-4 record, best result '07 semis)
8) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) - 4045 pts - 46-18 record with 1 title - 3 previous appearances (6-6 record, best result '10 finalist)
-Kerber and Makarova are the alternates
-The 8 contestants hail from 8 different countries
-The '13 contestants were Serena (W), Li (F), Kvitova and Jankovic (SF), Azarenka, Radwanska, Errani, and Kerber
-Only Serena, Kvitova, and Radwanska made it both this year and last. Sharapova qualified but was injured. Ivanovic last made the Finals in '08, Wozniacki in '11.
Groups:
Red - Serena, Halep, Bouchard, Ivanovic
White - Sharapova, Kvitova, Radwanska, Wozniacki
The White appears to be the much more difficult as Halep, Bouchard, and Ivanovic have all seen their results taper off at the end of the year while Kvitova and Wozniacki have seen better form. This tournament is Serena's to lose and I think she has no chance a failing to get out of that group. She has lost in Ivanovic this year but would likely need 2 losses to knock her out. Kvitova is the wild card here and she probably has the game to beat Serena but will she get to that point and will she be able to beat the world no. 1? Wozniacki is also an interesting case given her better form in the US Open series etc, which leaves the White Group very tough to call. I don't think Radwanska is much a threat and may well go 0-3; she hasn't seemed to play well against the best players this year. In the Red Group, Halep and Bouchard are dangerous but I think they are tiring out after long seasons, and it will be tough to bring the A game required to beat Serena and Ivanovic (and each other) day in day out here.
I will go with Serena, Ivanovic, Sharapova, and Kvitova to advance to the semis but won't count out Wozniacki. I'll pick Serena as the two-time defending champion over Kvitova in the final in what could be a classic match.
The no. 1 ranking is "sort of" up for grabs but Serena would have to lose relatively early and Sharapova would need to go deep, so it's possible but not likely.
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 7146 pts - 48-7 record with 6 titles including the US Open - 8 previous appearances (25-5 record, '01,'09,'12,'13 champion)
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - 6680 pts - 48-11 record with 4 titles including the French Open - 6 previous appearances (17-8 record, '04 champion)
3) Petra Kvitova (CZE) - 5597 pts - 40-14 record with 3 titles including Wimbledon - 3 previous appearances (7-3 record, '11 champion)
4) Simona Halep (ROU) - 5403 pts - 43-14 record with 2 titles - 1st Finals appearance
5) Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) - 4506 pts - 45-20 record with 1 title - 1st Finals appearance
6) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 4441 pts - 46-19 record with 1 title - 5 previous appearances (5-7 record, best result '12 semis)
7) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) - 4390 pts - 56-16 record with 4 titles - 2 previous appearance (2-4 record, best result '07 semis)
8) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) - 4045 pts - 46-18 record with 1 title - 3 previous appearances (6-6 record, best result '10 finalist)
-Kerber and Makarova are the alternates
-The 8 contestants hail from 8 different countries
-The '13 contestants were Serena (W), Li (F), Kvitova and Jankovic (SF), Azarenka, Radwanska, Errani, and Kerber
-Only Serena, Kvitova, and Radwanska made it both this year and last. Sharapova qualified but was injured. Ivanovic last made the Finals in '08, Wozniacki in '11.
Groups:
Red - Serena, Halep, Bouchard, Ivanovic
White - Sharapova, Kvitova, Radwanska, Wozniacki
The White appears to be the much more difficult as Halep, Bouchard, and Ivanovic have all seen their results taper off at the end of the year while Kvitova and Wozniacki have seen better form. This tournament is Serena's to lose and I think she has no chance a failing to get out of that group. She has lost in Ivanovic this year but would likely need 2 losses to knock her out. Kvitova is the wild card here and she probably has the game to beat Serena but will she get to that point and will she be able to beat the world no. 1? Wozniacki is also an interesting case given her better form in the US Open series etc, which leaves the White Group very tough to call. I don't think Radwanska is much a threat and may well go 0-3; she hasn't seemed to play well against the best players this year. In the Red Group, Halep and Bouchard are dangerous but I think they are tiring out after long seasons, and it will be tough to bring the A game required to beat Serena and Ivanovic (and each other) day in day out here.
I will go with Serena, Ivanovic, Sharapova, and Kvitova to advance to the semis but won't count out Wozniacki. I'll pick Serena as the two-time defending champion over Kvitova in the final in what could be a classic match.
The no. 1 ranking is "sort of" up for grabs but Serena would have to lose relatively early and Sharapova would need to go deep, so it's possible but not likely.
Friday, August 22, 2014
US Open Preview
Here is my preview for the US Open, the final major of the year, and one where we may or may not get clarity in a year we have had 6 different major champions to date.
In my opinion, it is hard to say who the favorite is in the men's draw. Djokovic has not been great since Wimbledon or he would be the one to point to. Federer is the most in form but recently he hasn't be able to keep it together over 5 sets against the very best players. Murray has struggled since the French Open. And of course Nadal is out. If it isn't going to be one of them, and despite Wawrinka's breakthrough I'm not sure how plausible this scenario is, then who? It's possible Tsonga is the leading candidate after his win in the Rogers Cup. Or perhaps Wawrinka, who reached the semis last year but he hasn't been very consistent this year. It's tough to imagine Ferrer and Berdych doing it, especially the Czech who has struggled mightily this summer. Really if it's not going to be a Big 4 member, I'll go with Dimitrov or Raonic, who have been steadily rising but may or may not be ready for the next step. This could be an unpredictable tournament, and really not sure what to expect.
For the women, it is a similar plot line except that Serena stands above all as the clear favorite. However, she is certainly not invincible this year, as evidenced by the fact that she has yet to reach a major quarterfinal in 2014. It is possible that Serena will lose at the US Open, in which case the tournament becomes wide open. Halep has been bothered by injury and Bouchard has been terrible since Wimbledon or they might be considered contenders, even against Serena. Kvitova won at Wimbledon, has struggled recently until New Haven, where she is the final. Sharapova could be a factor, but she hasn't won much off of clay since her injury. Radwanska has been coming on strong and is a bit under the radar but she has never reached the quarters in New York. Ivanovic is rising but hasn't been to the semis of a major in over 6 years. Azarenka has been hurt. A wildcard in the mix could be the former no. 1 and former finalist in New York Wozniacki, who has been very good this summer and twice took a set from Serena. And then you never know which player ranked in the 20s will put together a nice run, see the quarterfinalists from last year. This could turn out to be a dominating tournament for Serena or it could another wild wacky women's major. Or a new star could be born.
As side note is that for the first time in forever, the women's no. 1 ranking is on the line. Serena still leads Halep by over 1000 points after the '13 US Open points are subtracted, but it is possible for the her or Kvitova to move past Serena, especially if Serena loses early. The men's no. 1 ranking is not up for grabs since Nadal withdrew.
Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Nadal def. Djokovic
SF - Wawrinka, Gasquet
QF - Ferrer, Murray, Robredo, Youzhny
Women
F - Serena def. Azarenka
SF - Li, Pennetta
QF - Suarez Navarro, Vinci, Makarova, Hantuchova
(quite the group of quarterfinalists last year)
Former men's champs in the draw: Hewitt, Federer, Djokovic, Murray
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Venus, Kuznetsova, Sharapova, Stosur
Former boy's champs in the draw: Nieminen, Muller, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Dimitrov, Tomic, Sock, Coric
Former girl's champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Kirilenko, Flipkens, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Vandeweghe, Watson, Min
American participants (11 men, 17 women), from top to bottom in the draw - no qualifiers:
-Querrey, w-Giron, 13-Isner, Klahn, Young, w-Odesnik, Sock, Johnson, w-Rubin, w-Harrison, w-Donaldson, w-Smyczek,
-1-Serena, w-Townsend, King, Lepchenko, Davis, Vandeweghe, Rogers, w-Gibbs, Riske, 27-Keys, McHale, w-Bellis, w-Min, 21-Stephens, w-Brengle, 19-Venus, w-Collins
First time seeds:
23-L.Mayer, 27-Giraldo, 32-Sousa, 27-Keys, 29-Dellacqua, 30-Zahlavova Strycova, 31-Nara, 32-Zhang (most of these players seemed to rise up really under the radar)
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Djokovic vs Murray
-Wawrinka vs Raonic
-Ferrer vs Berdych
-Federer vs Dimitrov
-Serena vs Ivanovic
-Kvitova vs Bouchard
-Radwanska vs Kerber
-Halep vs Sharapova
In my opinion, it is hard to say who the favorite is in the men's draw. Djokovic has not been great since Wimbledon or he would be the one to point to. Federer is the most in form but recently he hasn't be able to keep it together over 5 sets against the very best players. Murray has struggled since the French Open. And of course Nadal is out. If it isn't going to be one of them, and despite Wawrinka's breakthrough I'm not sure how plausible this scenario is, then who? It's possible Tsonga is the leading candidate after his win in the Rogers Cup. Or perhaps Wawrinka, who reached the semis last year but he hasn't been very consistent this year. It's tough to imagine Ferrer and Berdych doing it, especially the Czech who has struggled mightily this summer. Really if it's not going to be a Big 4 member, I'll go with Dimitrov or Raonic, who have been steadily rising but may or may not be ready for the next step. This could be an unpredictable tournament, and really not sure what to expect.
For the women, it is a similar plot line except that Serena stands above all as the clear favorite. However, she is certainly not invincible this year, as evidenced by the fact that she has yet to reach a major quarterfinal in 2014. It is possible that Serena will lose at the US Open, in which case the tournament becomes wide open. Halep has been bothered by injury and Bouchard has been terrible since Wimbledon or they might be considered contenders, even against Serena. Kvitova won at Wimbledon, has struggled recently until New Haven, where she is the final. Sharapova could be a factor, but she hasn't won much off of clay since her injury. Radwanska has been coming on strong and is a bit under the radar but she has never reached the quarters in New York. Ivanovic is rising but hasn't been to the semis of a major in over 6 years. Azarenka has been hurt. A wildcard in the mix could be the former no. 1 and former finalist in New York Wozniacki, who has been very good this summer and twice took a set from Serena. And then you never know which player ranked in the 20s will put together a nice run, see the quarterfinalists from last year. This could turn out to be a dominating tournament for Serena or it could another wild wacky women's major. Or a new star could be born.
As side note is that for the first time in forever, the women's no. 1 ranking is on the line. Serena still leads Halep by over 1000 points after the '13 US Open points are subtracted, but it is possible for the her or Kvitova to move past Serena, especially if Serena loses early. The men's no. 1 ranking is not up for grabs since Nadal withdrew.
Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Nadal def. Djokovic
SF - Wawrinka, Gasquet
QF - Ferrer, Murray, Robredo, Youzhny
Women
F - Serena def. Azarenka
SF - Li, Pennetta
QF - Suarez Navarro, Vinci, Makarova, Hantuchova
(quite the group of quarterfinalists last year)
Former men's champs in the draw: Hewitt, Federer, Djokovic, Murray
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Venus, Kuznetsova, Sharapova, Stosur
Former boy's champs in the draw: Nieminen, Muller, Gasquet, Tsonga, Murray, Dimitrov, Tomic, Sock, Coric
Former girl's champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Kirilenko, Flipkens, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Vandeweghe, Watson, Min
American participants (11 men, 17 women), from top to bottom in the draw - no qualifiers:
-Querrey, w-Giron, 13-Isner, Klahn, Young, w-Odesnik, Sock, Johnson, w-Rubin, w-Harrison, w-Donaldson, w-Smyczek,
-1-Serena, w-Townsend, King, Lepchenko, Davis, Vandeweghe, Rogers, w-Gibbs, Riske, 27-Keys, McHale, w-Bellis, w-Min, 21-Stephens, w-Brengle, 19-Venus, w-Collins
First time seeds:
23-L.Mayer, 27-Giraldo, 32-Sousa, 27-Keys, 29-Dellacqua, 30-Zahlavova Strycova, 31-Nara, 32-Zhang (most of these players seemed to rise up really under the radar)
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Djokovic vs Murray
-Wawrinka vs Raonic
-Ferrer vs Berdych
-Federer vs Dimitrov
-Serena vs Ivanovic
-Kvitova vs Bouchard
-Radwanska vs Kerber
-Halep vs Sharapova
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Rogers Cup/Cincinnati Preview
The US Open Series is about to begin in earnest with the Rogers Cup in Canada and Cincinnati in the US. Most of the big names return to action, some having not played since Wimbledon, and we will glimpse who will be the favorites and dark horses in New York. Notable news this week, though, was both world no. 2s will miss these events. Li has also pulled out of the US Open itself while Nadal is still holding out hope of playing. This is especially notable in his case because was the defending in all 3 tournaments and now has basically gifted the year-end world no. 1 to Djokovic (although Djokovic is defending lots of points after the US Open).
So here are those defending the big points over the next 2 weeks, with my preview following:
Rogers Cup
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Milos Raonic (CAN)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Sorana Cirstea (ROU)
Semifinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), Vasek Pospisil (CAN), Na Li (CHN), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Quarterfinalists - Ernests Gulbis (LAT), Richard Gasquet (FRA), Nikolay Davydenko (RUS), Marinko Matosevic (AUS), Petra Kvitova (CZE), Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), Sara Errani (ITA), Magdalena Rybarikova (SVK)
Cincinnati
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. John Isner (USA)
Women - Victoria Azarenka (BLR) def. Serena Williams (USA)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Na Li (CHN), Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), Roger Federer (SUI), Andy Murray (GBR), Dmitry Tursunov (RUS), Simona Halep (ROU), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), Roberta Vinci (ITA)
Players reaching the quarters at both tournaments last year
-Nadal (W/W)
-Serena (W/F)
-Li (SF/SF)
-Djokovic (SF/QF)
-Radwanska (SF/QF)
Surprise players going to deep last year that I feel would have little chance of defending their points are Davydenko, Tursunov, and Matosevic for the men and really only Rybarikova for the women. Pospisil is unlikely to get back to the semis but he has turned his season around lately. The same could be said for Vinci and her QF in Cincinnati.
-Nadal beat the two local boys, Raonic and Isner, in the finals last year. It is feasible to see Raonic returning to the Rogers Cup final but Isner would be a bit of reach, though it's hard to count out his serve.
-While Nadal is unable to defending his two titles, Li was no slouch last year, reaching the semis of both events.
With Nadal out, Djokovic immediately becomes the favorite, especially with the question marks surrounding Murray. But the chances of Djokovic parlaying Nadal's absence into two titles here is unlikely and may not even want to play that much. And last year Nadal was the first person win in both Canada and Cincinnati since Roddick in '03. Young guns Raonic (esp. in Toronto), Dimitrov, and even Gulbis are candidates to perhaps break the Big 4's stranglehold but I would also look to Federer in the 3-set format esp. in Cincinnati (he is a 5-time champion) as he been able to beat Djokovic in similar tournaments recently. Murray could do wonders for his confidence with a win at either event but somehow I don't think that's happening.
Serena has been by far the best player on the regular tour but has stumbled magnificently at the majors. She should be good to win one or both of these events, as she did last year. But I do think Serena will lose a match here or there, especially after she's already reached the Stanford final. With Li out and Azarenka still out of form after her long injury layoff, who can seize the moment. In Montreal it could be the local girl Bouchard. It also could be Radwanska or Halep or Sharapova, or it could be an unknown player. Could it be a young American in Cincinnati? There's really so many question marks on the WTA, that if Serena doesn't win we'll have an unpredictable event. This is the opportunity for Halep and Bouchard to cement their rising, and for Radwanska and Sharapova to add another trophy.
So here are those defending the big points over the next 2 weeks, with my preview following:
Rogers Cup
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Milos Raonic (CAN)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Sorana Cirstea (ROU)
Semifinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), Vasek Pospisil (CAN), Na Li (CHN), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Quarterfinalists - Ernests Gulbis (LAT), Richard Gasquet (FRA), Nikolay Davydenko (RUS), Marinko Matosevic (AUS), Petra Kvitova (CZE), Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), Sara Errani (ITA), Magdalena Rybarikova (SVK)
Cincinnati
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. John Isner (USA)
Women - Victoria Azarenka (BLR) def. Serena Williams (USA)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Na Li (CHN), Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), Roger Federer (SUI), Andy Murray (GBR), Dmitry Tursunov (RUS), Simona Halep (ROU), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), Roberta Vinci (ITA)
Players reaching the quarters at both tournaments last year
-Nadal (W/W)
-Serena (W/F)
-Li (SF/SF)
-Djokovic (SF/QF)
-Radwanska (SF/QF)
Surprise players going to deep last year that I feel would have little chance of defending their points are Davydenko, Tursunov, and Matosevic for the men and really only Rybarikova for the women. Pospisil is unlikely to get back to the semis but he has turned his season around lately. The same could be said for Vinci and her QF in Cincinnati.
-Nadal beat the two local boys, Raonic and Isner, in the finals last year. It is feasible to see Raonic returning to the Rogers Cup final but Isner would be a bit of reach, though it's hard to count out his serve.
-While Nadal is unable to defending his two titles, Li was no slouch last year, reaching the semis of both events.
With Nadal out, Djokovic immediately becomes the favorite, especially with the question marks surrounding Murray. But the chances of Djokovic parlaying Nadal's absence into two titles here is unlikely and may not even want to play that much. And last year Nadal was the first person win in both Canada and Cincinnati since Roddick in '03. Young guns Raonic (esp. in Toronto), Dimitrov, and even Gulbis are candidates to perhaps break the Big 4's stranglehold but I would also look to Federer in the 3-set format esp. in Cincinnati (he is a 5-time champion) as he been able to beat Djokovic in similar tournaments recently. Murray could do wonders for his confidence with a win at either event but somehow I don't think that's happening.
Serena has been by far the best player on the regular tour but has stumbled magnificently at the majors. She should be good to win one or both of these events, as she did last year. But I do think Serena will lose a match here or there, especially after she's already reached the Stanford final. With Li out and Azarenka still out of form after her long injury layoff, who can seize the moment. In Montreal it could be the local girl Bouchard. It also could be Radwanska or Halep or Sharapova, or it could be an unknown player. Could it be a young American in Cincinnati? There's really so many question marks on the WTA, that if Serena doesn't win we'll have an unpredictable event. This is the opportunity for Halep and Bouchard to cement their rising, and for Radwanska and Sharapova to add another trophy.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Wimbledon Preview
Here is my Wimbledon preview for what could a more wide open major, in both draws, than we are used to seeing.
On the men's side, one of the Big 4 likely wins this tournament but who it will be is the question. I don't give Nadal any shot, given his grass court record the last 2 years. He's lost to Rosol, Darcis, and now Brown in Halle, winning only 5 games. Djokovic is a candidate, but I wonder where his game is at against top players he rode an easy draw to the French Open final and then lost there to Nadal. Besides grass is likely his weakest surface. Murray is the defending champion and is my pick to win again. He has put the ghosts of Fred Perry behind and only improved his Wimbledon results over the years. He is a tough out at his home major and doesn't lose earlier. Federer comes to Wimbledon as the only one of the Big 4 to have any success in warm up, winning Halle for a 7th time. Federer is in Nadal's half, so assuming Nadal losing before he gets to Federer (Nadal potentially starts with Klizan, Rosol (remember me?), and Karlovic), he'll only need to beat one of the Big 4 members. And he's won this tournament 7 times. He is a threat, despite his age and inconsistent play. So that brings me to the dark horses. Dimitrov is a viable candidate but would potentially play Murray in the quarters. I can't see Wawrinka doing much. I like Lopez and maybe Isner to take his spot in the quarters, and Kohlschreiber or Karlovic could take advantage of an early Nadal loss.
For the women, I think Serena still has to be considered the favorite but she has more question marks about her game than she normally does at this tournament. Beyond her, throw several names in a hat and pick. Li has played decent at Wimbledon in the past but has never been past the quarters. Halep has some injury issues after all the playing she's done over the past year but did win a grass title last year. Radwanska is a threat, especially coming from the bottom half. She took a set off Serena in the '12 final and had a golden opportunity last year but couldn't convert. Aside from the '11 final loss to Kvitova, Sharapova hasn't done much at Wimbledon post-surgery but see still is the reigning French Open champ and did win here in the past. Kvitova seems far too inconsistent. Kerber seems like she may have a chance to deep. But more likely we'll have one or two top players and then some dark horses (if there can be any of those this year) with an opportunity to steal a major. I'm looking at women like Wozniacki, Stephens, Venus, Makarova, Ivanovic, Cibulkova, or maybe even Keys or former finalist Zvonareva (who has a nice draw if she remembers how to play tennis). This could be a very interesting women's tournament
Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Murray def. Djokovic
SF - Del Potro, Janowicz
QF - Ferrer, Berdych, Verdasco, Kubot
(Both Poles stand to lose a ton)
Women
F - Bartoli def. Lisicki
SF - Radwanska, Flipkens
QF - Li, Kvitova, Stephens, Kanepi
Former men's champs in the draw: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray
Former women's champs in the draw: Venus, Serena, Sharapova, Kvitova
Former boy's champs in the draw: Federer, Melzer, Mahut, Monfils, Chardy, Young, Dimitrov, An.Kuznetsov, Saville
Former girl's champs in the draw: Flipkens, A.Radwanska, Wozniacki, U.Radwanska, Kr.Pliskova, Bouchard, Bencic
American participants (10 men, 13 women), from top to bottom in the draw:
-Klahn, Querrey, Johnson, q-Kuznetsov, q-Harrison, Young, Russell, 9-Isner, Sock, q-Kudla
-1-Serena, Tatishvili, McHale, Riske, q-Duval, w-Townsend, Keys, Vandeweghe, Lepchenko, 30-Venus, 18-Stephens, Davis, King
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Djokovic vs Berdych
-Murray vs Ferrer
-Federer vs Wawrinka
-Nadal vs Raonic
-Serena vs Sharapova
-Halep vs Jankovic
-Radwanska vs Azarenka
-Li vs Kvitova
On the men's side, one of the Big 4 likely wins this tournament but who it will be is the question. I don't give Nadal any shot, given his grass court record the last 2 years. He's lost to Rosol, Darcis, and now Brown in Halle, winning only 5 games. Djokovic is a candidate, but I wonder where his game is at against top players he rode an easy draw to the French Open final and then lost there to Nadal. Besides grass is likely his weakest surface. Murray is the defending champion and is my pick to win again. He has put the ghosts of Fred Perry behind and only improved his Wimbledon results over the years. He is a tough out at his home major and doesn't lose earlier. Federer comes to Wimbledon as the only one of the Big 4 to have any success in warm up, winning Halle for a 7th time. Federer is in Nadal's half, so assuming Nadal losing before he gets to Federer (Nadal potentially starts with Klizan, Rosol (remember me?), and Karlovic), he'll only need to beat one of the Big 4 members. And he's won this tournament 7 times. He is a threat, despite his age and inconsistent play. So that brings me to the dark horses. Dimitrov is a viable candidate but would potentially play Murray in the quarters. I can't see Wawrinka doing much. I like Lopez and maybe Isner to take his spot in the quarters, and Kohlschreiber or Karlovic could take advantage of an early Nadal loss.
For the women, I think Serena still has to be considered the favorite but she has more question marks about her game than she normally does at this tournament. Beyond her, throw several names in a hat and pick. Li has played decent at Wimbledon in the past but has never been past the quarters. Halep has some injury issues after all the playing she's done over the past year but did win a grass title last year. Radwanska is a threat, especially coming from the bottom half. She took a set off Serena in the '12 final and had a golden opportunity last year but couldn't convert. Aside from the '11 final loss to Kvitova, Sharapova hasn't done much at Wimbledon post-surgery but see still is the reigning French Open champ and did win here in the past. Kvitova seems far too inconsistent. Kerber seems like she may have a chance to deep. But more likely we'll have one or two top players and then some dark horses (if there can be any of those this year) with an opportunity to steal a major. I'm looking at women like Wozniacki, Stephens, Venus, Makarova, Ivanovic, Cibulkova, or maybe even Keys or former finalist Zvonareva (who has a nice draw if she remembers how to play tennis). This could be a very interesting women's tournament
Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Murray def. Djokovic
SF - Del Potro, Janowicz
QF - Ferrer, Berdych, Verdasco, Kubot
(Both Poles stand to lose a ton)
Women
F - Bartoli def. Lisicki
SF - Radwanska, Flipkens
QF - Li, Kvitova, Stephens, Kanepi
Former men's champs in the draw: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray
Former women's champs in the draw: Venus, Serena, Sharapova, Kvitova
Former boy's champs in the draw: Federer, Melzer, Mahut, Monfils, Chardy, Young, Dimitrov, An.Kuznetsov, Saville
Former girl's champs in the draw: Flipkens, A.Radwanska, Wozniacki, U.Radwanska, Kr.Pliskova, Bouchard, Bencic
American participants (10 men, 13 women), from top to bottom in the draw:
-Klahn, Querrey, Johnson, q-Kuznetsov, q-Harrison, Young, Russell, 9-Isner, Sock, q-Kudla
-1-Serena, Tatishvili, McHale, Riske, q-Duval, w-Townsend, Keys, Vandeweghe, Lepchenko, 30-Venus, 18-Stephens, Davis, King
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Djokovic vs Berdych
-Murray vs Ferrer
-Federer vs Wawrinka
-Nadal vs Raonic
-Serena vs Sharapova
-Halep vs Jankovic
-Radwanska vs Azarenka
-Li vs Kvitova
Saturday, May 24, 2014
French Open Preview
And now for a little French Open preview. I kind of like my brief I gave for the Aussie Open, so rather than include it in a separate post, here it is now:
For the men, I view Nadal and Djokovic as co-favorites. Obviously you give Nadal the benefit of the doubt since he's only lost once here, but he has not played that well recently. Djokovic hasn't been playing real well either, but he survived Rome and beat Nadal in the final. It's possible we see an unlikely champion at this event, but most likely one of the top 2 in the world will reach the final and win. Beyond them, Federer and Wawrinka probably have the best shot as several of the 5 to 15-ish players aren't in great form although Nishikori if healthy could make a run and Raonic quietly had a solid clay season. Dimitrov and Gulbis are other names to keep an eye on.
For the women, with her win in Rome, Serena is likely the favorite, especially given her massive head-to-head advantage against Sharapova. But don't overlook the Russian or Li, as past champions here. There are players here that could beat Serena, especially given her pre-Rome form, but that doesn't mean they'll win. I look for Halep to have a nice tournament if healthy, and Errani is primed for a deep run though I don't think she can win the whole thing. The Serbs, Jankovic and Ivanovic, are possibly threats, especially with a whole lot of question marks in the top 15. And don't sleep on former champ Kuznetsova, who seems to be slowly rounding back into form.
Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Nadal def. Ferrer
SF - Djokovic, Tsonga
QF - Wawrinka, Federer, Haas, Robredo
Women
F - Serena def. Sharapova
SF - Azarenka, Errani
QF - Radwanska, Jankovic, Kirilenko, Kuznetsova
Former men's champs in the draw: Nadal, Federer
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Schiavone, Li, Sharapova
Former boy's champs in the draw: Mathieu, Gasquet, Wawrinka, Monfils, Cilic, Klizan
Former girl's champs in the draw: Dominguez Lino, Razzano, Kanepi, A.Radwanska, Cornet, Halep, Mladenovic, Svitolina, Beck, Bencic
American participants (8 men, 14 women), from top to bottom in the draw:
-w-Ginepri, Sock, Johnson, Klahn, Young, 10-Isner, Querrey, Russell (no qualifiers)
-1-Serena, q-Min, 29-Venus, Davis, McHale, w-Townsend, King, Lepchenko, 15-Stephens, Vandeweghe, Rogers, Tatishvili (new American), Keys, Riske
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Nadal vs Ferrer
-Wawrinka vs Murray
-Federer vs Berdych
-Djokovic vs Raonic
-Serena vs Sharapova (boo)
-Radwanska vs Kerber
-Halep vs Kvitova
-Li vs Jankovic
For the men, I view Nadal and Djokovic as co-favorites. Obviously you give Nadal the benefit of the doubt since he's only lost once here, but he has not played that well recently. Djokovic hasn't been playing real well either, but he survived Rome and beat Nadal in the final. It's possible we see an unlikely champion at this event, but most likely one of the top 2 in the world will reach the final and win. Beyond them, Federer and Wawrinka probably have the best shot as several of the 5 to 15-ish players aren't in great form although Nishikori if healthy could make a run and Raonic quietly had a solid clay season. Dimitrov and Gulbis are other names to keep an eye on.
For the women, with her win in Rome, Serena is likely the favorite, especially given her massive head-to-head advantage against Sharapova. But don't overlook the Russian or Li, as past champions here. There are players here that could beat Serena, especially given her pre-Rome form, but that doesn't mean they'll win. I look for Halep to have a nice tournament if healthy, and Errani is primed for a deep run though I don't think she can win the whole thing. The Serbs, Jankovic and Ivanovic, are possibly threats, especially with a whole lot of question marks in the top 15. And don't sleep on former champ Kuznetsova, who seems to be slowly rounding back into form.
Here are the big points defenders:
Men
F - Nadal def. Ferrer
SF - Djokovic, Tsonga
QF - Wawrinka, Federer, Haas, Robredo
Women
F - Serena def. Sharapova
SF - Azarenka, Errani
QF - Radwanska, Jankovic, Kirilenko, Kuznetsova
Former men's champs in the draw: Nadal, Federer
Former women's champs in the draw: Serena, Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Schiavone, Li, Sharapova
Former boy's champs in the draw: Mathieu, Gasquet, Wawrinka, Monfils, Cilic, Klizan
Former girl's champs in the draw: Dominguez Lino, Razzano, Kanepi, A.Radwanska, Cornet, Halep, Mladenovic, Svitolina, Beck, Bencic
American participants (8 men, 14 women), from top to bottom in the draw:
-w-Ginepri, Sock, Johnson, Klahn, Young, 10-Isner, Querrey, Russell (no qualifiers)
-1-Serena, q-Min, 29-Venus, Davis, McHale, w-Townsend, King, Lepchenko, 15-Stephens, Vandeweghe, Rogers, Tatishvili (new American), Keys, Riske
Potential quarterfinal matchups:
-Nadal vs Ferrer
-Wawrinka vs Murray
-Federer vs Berdych
-Djokovic vs Raonic
-Serena vs Sharapova (boo)
-Radwanska vs Kerber
-Halep vs Kvitova
-Li vs Jankovic
Sunday, May 4, 2014
Madrid/Rome Preview
Here is a brief preview of the clay Masters/"Tier I" events which will have the majority of the big names in action, though Azarenka and Djokovic are notably missing the draws. Here are those defending the big points over the next 2 weeks:
Madrid
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Pablo Andujar (ESP), Sara Errani (ITA), Ana Ivanovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists - David Ferrer (ESP), Andy Murray (GBR), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Kei Nishikori (JPN), Angelique Kerber (GER), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Ekaterina Makarova (RUS), Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP)
Rome
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Roger Federer (SUI)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Benoit Paire (FRA), Simona Halep (ROU), Sara Errani (ITA)
Quarterfinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), David Ferrer (ESP), Jerzy Janowicz (POL), Marcel Granollers (ESP), Jelena Jankovic (SRB), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Players reaching the quarters at both tournaments last year
-Nadal (W/W)
-Serena (W/W)
-Sharapova (F/QF)
-Errani (SF/SF)
-Ferrer (QF/QF)
There are also names like Andujar, Paire, Medina Garrigues (really?), and Granollers that I was surprised to see here and really have no legitimate shot at defending those points.
-This is where Halep's run to the top 5 began and where she begins defending points. She'll have a boatload to defend following the French Open.
Nadal and Serena each won both these tournaments last year but both look very much more beatable this year. Nadal didn't win in Monte Carlo or Barcelona (basically the first time we've ever said that) and we last saw Serena in Charleston, losing to Cepelova. With Djokovic out at least of Madrid, Nadal is still a decent bet to win at least one of the tournaments, though he doesn't really like Madrid so imagine he won't win there. That leaves a pretty wide open field for the men with the two Swiss and Ferrer as the top contenders. If it's not one of them winning, your guess is as good as mine with Murray not in great form and never a big fan of clay. Is the time right for Tsonga or Berdych to win a big title? In Rome I think Nadal is still the favorite even if Djokovic shows up.
For the women, who knows? I would expect Sharapova to be in the mix at one or both tournaments and Serena will likely have a good run or two too. Radwanska should be a contender and Li will be tough to beat too. Beyond those four, almost anyone could get hot and win a tournament circa 2010 when Martinez Sanchez and Rezai won these two events. The top players just aren't as consistent as they were a year ago. Case in point, Kerber is already out in Madrid. I would keep an eye out for Kuznetsova, who seems like she may be playing decent tennis again. It should be an interesting 2 weeks as these 2 tournaments are as wide open as they've been for several years.
Madrid
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Pablo Andujar (ESP), Sara Errani (ITA), Ana Ivanovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists - David Ferrer (ESP), Andy Murray (GBR), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Kei Nishikori (JPN), Angelique Kerber (GER), Kaia Kanepi (EST), Ekaterina Makarova (RUS), Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP)
Rome
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Roger Federer (SUI)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Benoit Paire (FRA), Simona Halep (ROU), Sara Errani (ITA)
Quarterfinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), David Ferrer (ESP), Jerzy Janowicz (POL), Marcel Granollers (ESP), Jelena Jankovic (SRB), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Players reaching the quarters at both tournaments last year
-Nadal (W/W)
-Serena (W/W)
-Sharapova (F/QF)
-Errani (SF/SF)
-Ferrer (QF/QF)
There are also names like Andujar, Paire, Medina Garrigues (really?), and Granollers that I was surprised to see here and really have no legitimate shot at defending those points.
-This is where Halep's run to the top 5 began and where she begins defending points. She'll have a boatload to defend following the French Open.
Nadal and Serena each won both these tournaments last year but both look very much more beatable this year. Nadal didn't win in Monte Carlo or Barcelona (basically the first time we've ever said that) and we last saw Serena in Charleston, losing to Cepelova. With Djokovic out at least of Madrid, Nadal is still a decent bet to win at least one of the tournaments, though he doesn't really like Madrid so imagine he won't win there. That leaves a pretty wide open field for the men with the two Swiss and Ferrer as the top contenders. If it's not one of them winning, your guess is as good as mine with Murray not in great form and never a big fan of clay. Is the time right for Tsonga or Berdych to win a big title? In Rome I think Nadal is still the favorite even if Djokovic shows up.
For the women, who knows? I would expect Sharapova to be in the mix at one or both tournaments and Serena will likely have a good run or two too. Radwanska should be a contender and Li will be tough to beat too. Beyond those four, almost anyone could get hot and win a tournament circa 2010 when Martinez Sanchez and Rezai won these two events. The top players just aren't as consistent as they were a year ago. Case in point, Kerber is already out in Madrid. I would keep an eye out for Kuznetsova, who seems like she may be playing decent tennis again. It should be an interesting 2 weeks as these 2 tournaments are as wide open as they've been for several years.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Indian Wells/Miami Preview
The first Masters tournaments of the year are here for the men, and women will be contending the first Premier Mandatory events, albeit without the Williams sisters at Indian Wells. Before I get to my ideas on what could happen, here are those defending big points the next four weeks.
Indian Wells
Men's 2013 final: Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)
Women's 2013 final: Maria Sharapova (RUS) def. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Semifinalists: Novak Djokovic (SRB), Tomas Berdych (CZE), Angelique Kerber (GER), Maria Kirilenko (RUS)
Quarterfinalists: Andy Murray (GBR), Roger Federer (SUI), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Kevin Anderson (RSA), Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Sara Errani (ITA), Petra Kvitova (CZE), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Miami
Men's 2013 final: Andy Murray (GBR) def. David Ferrer (ESP)
Women's 2013 final: Serena Williams (USA) def. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Semifinalists: Richard Gasquet (FRA), Tommy Haas (GER), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists: Tomas Berdych (CZE), Gilles Simon (FRA), Marin Cilic (CRO), Jurgen Melzer (AUT), Na Li (CHN), Sara Errani (ITA), Roberta Vinci (ITA), Kirsten Flipkens (BEL)
Players reaching the quarters and both tournaments in 2013:
-Murray (QF/W)
-Berdych (SF/QF)
-Sharapova (W/F)
-Errani (QF/QF)
Players who will be hard pressed to defend those points:
-Wozniacki, Kirilenko (out injured), Melzer, Vinci, Ferrer (out injured)
ATP Preview
Nadal comes in off a win in Rio de Janeiro, Djokovic lost to Wawrinka at the Aussie Open and Federer in Dubai so he has yet to reach a final. Murray made the semis in Acapulco but there to Dimitrov. These events have the potential to be more wide open than many Masters events. Nadal will be the favorite at Indian Wells but he has never won in Miami. It will be interesting to see if Djokovic or Murray can pull it together here. Federer has started the year well, I like him to go deep in the tournaments but once there it is a flip of a coin. Don't count out Berdych, who has played well in 2014 and has been a factor at these events in the past. Cilic, Anderson, and Dimitrov are the hot names on tour right but we'll see what happens at the Masters. For Americans, Isner and Querrey have both struggled lately so if anyone gets to the round of 16 that will be a step in the right direction.
WTA Preview
It was a tumultuous two weeks in the Middle East for the WTA with Halep winning in Doha and Venus in Dubai. Azarenka has not been at her best and both Serena and Li went crashing out in Dubai. I expect the top tier to get it back together with Sharapova back in action and Azarenka hopefully injury free. If the titlists don't come from Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka, Radwanska, or Li it is anyone's guess as to who they could be. Kerber and Halep have played well at times, Jankovic is quietly still rising, Ivanovic beat Serena at the Aussie Open, Kanepi, Bouchard, Cornet, and Stosur have had bursts of solid play, so this will be an interesting four weeks to determine if the top tier is going to reign this year or if we're going to have another season where different players are going deep in tournaments each week. As far as the Americans, week in-week out it is a mixed bag. Stephens, Riske, Keys, and McHale have each played well at times this year. Duval was a nice surprise in Acapulco last week. I imagine one of the younger set will make the round of 16, maybe even the quarters. It would be nice to see Stephens do well at least one of these tournaments.
Indian Wells
Men's 2013 final: Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)
Women's 2013 final: Maria Sharapova (RUS) def. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Semifinalists: Novak Djokovic (SRB), Tomas Berdych (CZE), Angelique Kerber (GER), Maria Kirilenko (RUS)
Quarterfinalists: Andy Murray (GBR), Roger Federer (SUI), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), Kevin Anderson (RSA), Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Sara Errani (ITA), Petra Kvitova (CZE), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Miami
Men's 2013 final: Andy Murray (GBR) def. David Ferrer (ESP)
Women's 2013 final: Serena Williams (USA) def. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Semifinalists: Richard Gasquet (FRA), Tommy Haas (GER), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists: Tomas Berdych (CZE), Gilles Simon (FRA), Marin Cilic (CRO), Jurgen Melzer (AUT), Na Li (CHN), Sara Errani (ITA), Roberta Vinci (ITA), Kirsten Flipkens (BEL)
Players reaching the quarters and both tournaments in 2013:
-Murray (QF/W)
-Berdych (SF/QF)
-Sharapova (W/F)
-Errani (QF/QF)
Players who will be hard pressed to defend those points:
-Wozniacki, Kirilenko (out injured), Melzer, Vinci, Ferrer (out injured)
ATP Preview
Nadal comes in off a win in Rio de Janeiro, Djokovic lost to Wawrinka at the Aussie Open and Federer in Dubai so he has yet to reach a final. Murray made the semis in Acapulco but there to Dimitrov. These events have the potential to be more wide open than many Masters events. Nadal will be the favorite at Indian Wells but he has never won in Miami. It will be interesting to see if Djokovic or Murray can pull it together here. Federer has started the year well, I like him to go deep in the tournaments but once there it is a flip of a coin. Don't count out Berdych, who has played well in 2014 and has been a factor at these events in the past. Cilic, Anderson, and Dimitrov are the hot names on tour right but we'll see what happens at the Masters. For Americans, Isner and Querrey have both struggled lately so if anyone gets to the round of 16 that will be a step in the right direction.
WTA Preview
It was a tumultuous two weeks in the Middle East for the WTA with Halep winning in Doha and Venus in Dubai. Azarenka has not been at her best and both Serena and Li went crashing out in Dubai. I expect the top tier to get it back together with Sharapova back in action and Azarenka hopefully injury free. If the titlists don't come from Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka, Radwanska, or Li it is anyone's guess as to who they could be. Kerber and Halep have played well at times, Jankovic is quietly still rising, Ivanovic beat Serena at the Aussie Open, Kanepi, Bouchard, Cornet, and Stosur have had bursts of solid play, so this will be an interesting four weeks to determine if the top tier is going to reign this year or if we're going to have another season where different players are going deep in tournaments each week. As far as the Americans, week in-week out it is a mixed bag. Stephens, Riske, Keys, and McHale have each played well at times this year. Duval was a nice surprise in Acapulco last week. I imagine one of the younger set will make the round of 16, maybe even the quarters. It would be nice to see Stephens do well at least one of these tournaments.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Isner Wins in Auckland, Pironkova Pulls Several Upsets to Win Sydney
It was the calm before the storm, just 4 tournaments this week leading up to the Australian Open. Juan Martin Del Potro got his season off a winning start in Sydney while John Isner bounced back after his ankle injury in the Hopman Cup to win in Auckland, a tournament where the seeds were falling out left and right and Americans shone. Tsvetana Pironkova, twice a Wimbledon quarterfinalist but who has done little for a couple years, qualified in Sydney, then beat 3 top 10 players to win her first career title! In Hobart, it was another qualifier who won her first career title, as Garbine Muguruza knocked off Zakopalova in the final.
ATP 250: Sydney, Australia
1) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) def. Bernard Tomic (AUS) 6-3 6-1
-Del Potro wins 18th career title, last '13 Basel
-Americans: 0-2, Querrey l. to Ramos, q-Harrison l. to Mahut
-Not much else to say here, usual suspects doing usual. Losing semifinalists were 4-Tursunov and q-Stakhovsky. 2-Janowicz and 3-Seppi lost opening round matches.
-Tomic came within one win of defending his title.
ATP 250: Auckland, New Zealand
3) John Isner (USA) def. Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) 7-6(4) 7-6(7)
-Isner wins 8th career title, last '13 Atlanta. '10 Auckland was his first career title.
-Americans: 10-4 despite only Isner was a direct entry. Sock (wildcard), and l-Johnson reached the QF while q-Klahn and q-Young each won one match. They lost to Bautista Agut, Lu, Lu, and 1-Ferrer, respectively.
-The match of the tournament was 3-Isner def. 5-Kohlschreiber 6-7(4) 7-6(4) 7-6(5)
-Isner went 6-1 in tiebreaks during the week.
-Ferrer was the defending champion but lost to Lu in the SF. He now only holds one title (Buenos Aires).
WTA Premier: Sydney, Australia
Q) Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) def. 5) Angelique Kerber (GER) 6-4 6-4
-Pironkova wins first career title, also her first WTA final
-Americans: 8-6 and 5 of the entrants had wins. Keys reached the SF and beat Halep in the first round. Mattek-Sands beat Bouchard and A.Radwanska before losing to Keys. l-Lepchenko upset Kuzetsova before falling to Pironkova. Davis beat Gadjosova then lost to Errani. q-McHale beat Cornet then lost to Kvitova. Only q-Duval didn't win a match, falling to Kanepi.
-Seeds really struggled in this tournament with 3 top 11 players losing their opening match (Radwanska, Jankovic, and Halep) and Wozniacki losing after one win.
-Aga Radwanska was the defending champion but lost her first match to Mattek-Sands.
WTA International: Hobart, Australia
Q) Garbine Muguruza (ESP) def. 7) Klara Zakopalova (CZE) 6-4 6-0
-Muguruza wins first career title, also her first WTA final
-Americans: 2-2, q-Brengle l. to 1-Stosur but Riske reached QF def. Pavlyuchenkova, Dellacqua, l. to Zakopalova
-Stosur won 2 matches in 3rd tie tiebreaks, 7-5 over Brengle and 9-7 over Mladenovic. She then beat Bojanovski in the QF before losing to Zakopalova, her most productive event on home soil.
-Storm Sanders, a 19-yr-old Aussie, won her first WTA main draw match, def. Peng. She then lost to 2-Flipkens in a 3rd set tiebreak.
-Vesnina was the defending champion, but went out in the second to Cabeza Candela
I didn't have time to put together a complete Australian Open preview, so here's a few quick notes. It would be a surprise if on the final weekend we don't see Nadal/Djokovic and Serena/Azarenka finals. The no. 1 ranking is not up in the air at all on either tour. I am currently tipping Nadal and Serena to win the championships.
Americans participants (12 men, 12 women), from top to bottom of draw:
-Sock, Harrison, Young, Klahn, Smyczek, q-Williams, q-Odesnik, 13-Isner, q-Kudla, w-Johnson, Querrey, and Russell
-1-Serena, Keys, w-Vickery, Davis, Venus, l-Falconi, Riske, Lepchenko, King, Mattek-Sands, McHale, 13-Stephens. Unfortunately Hampton had to pull out.
Big points defenders:
Men
Djokovic def. Murray
SF - Federer, Ferrer
QF - Almagro (w/d), Berdych, Chardy, Tsonga
Women
Azarenka def. Li
SF - Sharapova, Stephens
QF - Kuznetsova, Makarova, Radwanska, Serena
Former mens champs in the draw: Federer, Djokovic, Nadal
Former womens champs in the draw: Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka
Former boys champs in the draw: Baghdatis, Monfils, Young, Tomic, Vesely, Kyrgios
Former girls champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Razzano, Jankovic, Zahlavova Strycova, Peer, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Ka.Pliskova, Konjuh
ATP 250: Sydney, Australia
1) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) def. Bernard Tomic (AUS) 6-3 6-1
-Del Potro wins 18th career title, last '13 Basel
-Americans: 0-2, Querrey l. to Ramos, q-Harrison l. to Mahut
-Not much else to say here, usual suspects doing usual. Losing semifinalists were 4-Tursunov and q-Stakhovsky. 2-Janowicz and 3-Seppi lost opening round matches.
-Tomic came within one win of defending his title.
ATP 250: Auckland, New Zealand
3) John Isner (USA) def. Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) 7-6(4) 7-6(7)
-Isner wins 8th career title, last '13 Atlanta. '10 Auckland was his first career title.
-Americans: 10-4 despite only Isner was a direct entry. Sock (wildcard), and l-Johnson reached the QF while q-Klahn and q-Young each won one match. They lost to Bautista Agut, Lu, Lu, and 1-Ferrer, respectively.
-The match of the tournament was 3-Isner def. 5-Kohlschreiber 6-7(4) 7-6(4) 7-6(5)
-Isner went 6-1 in tiebreaks during the week.
-Ferrer was the defending champion but lost to Lu in the SF. He now only holds one title (Buenos Aires).
WTA Premier: Sydney, Australia
Q) Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) def. 5) Angelique Kerber (GER) 6-4 6-4
-Pironkova wins first career title, also her first WTA final
-Americans: 8-6 and 5 of the entrants had wins. Keys reached the SF and beat Halep in the first round. Mattek-Sands beat Bouchard and A.Radwanska before losing to Keys. l-Lepchenko upset Kuzetsova before falling to Pironkova. Davis beat Gadjosova then lost to Errani. q-McHale beat Cornet then lost to Kvitova. Only q-Duval didn't win a match, falling to Kanepi.
-Seeds really struggled in this tournament with 3 top 11 players losing their opening match (Radwanska, Jankovic, and Halep) and Wozniacki losing after one win.
-Aga Radwanska was the defending champion but lost her first match to Mattek-Sands.
WTA International: Hobart, Australia
Q) Garbine Muguruza (ESP) def. 7) Klara Zakopalova (CZE) 6-4 6-0
-Muguruza wins first career title, also her first WTA final
-Americans: 2-2, q-Brengle l. to 1-Stosur but Riske reached QF def. Pavlyuchenkova, Dellacqua, l. to Zakopalova
-Stosur won 2 matches in 3rd tie tiebreaks, 7-5 over Brengle and 9-7 over Mladenovic. She then beat Bojanovski in the QF before losing to Zakopalova, her most productive event on home soil.
-Storm Sanders, a 19-yr-old Aussie, won her first WTA main draw match, def. Peng. She then lost to 2-Flipkens in a 3rd set tiebreak.
-Vesnina was the defending champion, but went out in the second to Cabeza Candela
I didn't have time to put together a complete Australian Open preview, so here's a few quick notes. It would be a surprise if on the final weekend we don't see Nadal/Djokovic and Serena/Azarenka finals. The no. 1 ranking is not up in the air at all on either tour. I am currently tipping Nadal and Serena to win the championships.
Americans participants (12 men, 12 women), from top to bottom of draw:
-Sock, Harrison, Young, Klahn, Smyczek, q-Williams, q-Odesnik, 13-Isner, q-Kudla, w-Johnson, Querrey, and Russell
-1-Serena, Keys, w-Vickery, Davis, Venus, l-Falconi, Riske, Lepchenko, King, Mattek-Sands, McHale, 13-Stephens. Unfortunately Hampton had to pull out.
Big points defenders:
Men
Djokovic def. Murray
SF - Federer, Ferrer
QF - Almagro (w/d), Berdych, Chardy, Tsonga
Women
Azarenka def. Li
SF - Sharapova, Stephens
QF - Kuznetsova, Makarova, Radwanska, Serena
Former mens champs in the draw: Federer, Djokovic, Nadal
Former womens champs in the draw: Serena, Sharapova, Azarenka
Former boys champs in the draw: Baghdatis, Monfils, Young, Tomic, Vesely, Kyrgios
Former girls champs in the draw: Lucic-Baroni, Razzano, Jankovic, Zahlavova Strycova, Peer, Azarenka, Pavlyuchenkova, Ka.Pliskova, Konjuh
Sunday, November 3, 2013
London Preview
The top eight tennis players in the world (well, actually 8 of the top 9) begin play in the world tour finals today in London. Given his recent form, Djokovic is the favorite to win the event but Nadal is highly motivated to finally win this event, and certainly was the best player on tour for the majority of the year. There are a couple others, Federer and Del Potro come to mind, that could be threats as well especially if one of the top two stumble. Here are the eight participants with their points this week and some stats.
1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 12,030 - 6th WTF appearance ('06,'07,'09-'11), 9-10 record, best '10 F - 10 titles this year including the French and US Opens, 71-6 record
2) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 10,610 - 7th WTF appearance ('07-'12), 14-9 record, best result '08,'12 W - 6 titles this year including the Australian Open, 67-9 record
3) David Ferrer (ESP) - 5800 - 5th WTF appearance ('07,'10-'12), 8-7 record, best result '07 F - 2 titles this year, 60-21 record
4) Andy Murray (GBR) - 5790 - withdrew with injury - 4 titles this year including Wimbledon, 43-8 record
5) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) - 5055 - 4th WTF appearance ('08,'09,'12), 6-6 record, best result '09 F - 4 titles this year, 50-14 record
6) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 3980 - 4th WTF appearance ('10-'12), 4-6 record, best result '11 SF - no titles this year, 52-22 record
7) Roger Federer (SUI) - 3805 - 12th WTF appearance ('02-'12), 42-9 record, best result '03,'04,'06,'07,'10,'11 W - 1 title this year, 43-15 record
8) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) - 3330 - 1st WTF appearance - 1 title this year, 49-21 record
9) Richard Gasquet (FRA) - 3300 - 2nd WTF appearance ('07), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '07 RR - 3 titles this year, 50-20 record
Group B appears to be more difficult as it includes Djokovic, Del Potro, Federer, and Gasquet while Group A consists of Nadal, Ferrer, Berdych, and Wawrinka. Djokovic can still technically wrest the no. 1 ranking from Nadal but it would take the Serb winning the tournament undefeated and Nadal not winning a match. Other potential ranking battles would Del Potro passing Murray to get to no. 4 (big for Aussie Open), Berdych and Federer playing for no. 6, and Wawrinka and Gasquet battling for no. 8.
As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:
-Australian Open: Novak Djokovic
-French Open: Rafael Nadal
-Wimbledon: Andy Murray
-US Open: Rafael Nadal
-Indian Wells: Rafael Nadal
-Miami: Andy Murray
-Monte Carlo: Novak Djokovic
-Madrid: Rafael Nadal
-Rome: Rafael Nadal
-Toronto: Rafael Nadal
-Cincinatti: Rafael Nadal
-Shanghai: Novak Djokovic
-Paris: Novak Djokovic
The four men I called in the introduction were not drawn two and two into the groups but instead Djokovic ended up with both Del Potro and Federer while Nadal ought to be able to get out of his group without much difficulty, though he does have Ferrer there, who he just lost to in Paris. The poor soul of the tournament is Gasquet, who has a mountain ahead of him to avoid going 0-3. Group A does is without interest though, because Ferrer has a good chance to emerge and both Berdych and Wawrinka are dangerous on a given day.
I think Nadal and Ferrer in some order will advance out of Group A, and while Group B is a tough call I think Federer is motivated and playing well enough to make it out along with Djokovic. I still like Djokovic to win this title, whether he sees Federer or Nadal on the other side of the net in the final. I think Nadal would likely will win a Fedal semi, but Federer always plays well in London. Del Potro could also be a dark horse threat if he can get out of the group stage.
Enjoy the last bit of tennis, before nearly two months of boredom.
I almost have my slam summaries ready for posting, likely some time in the coming week.
1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 12,030 - 6th WTF appearance ('06,'07,'09-'11), 9-10 record, best '10 F - 10 titles this year including the French and US Opens, 71-6 record
2) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 10,610 - 7th WTF appearance ('07-'12), 14-9 record, best result '08,'12 W - 6 titles this year including the Australian Open, 67-9 record
3) David Ferrer (ESP) - 5800 - 5th WTF appearance ('07,'10-'12), 8-7 record, best result '07 F - 2 titles this year, 60-21 record
4) Andy Murray (GBR) - 5790 - withdrew with injury - 4 titles this year including Wimbledon, 43-8 record
5) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) - 5055 - 4th WTF appearance ('08,'09,'12), 6-6 record, best result '09 F - 4 titles this year, 50-14 record
6) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 3980 - 4th WTF appearance ('10-'12), 4-6 record, best result '11 SF - no titles this year, 52-22 record
7) Roger Federer (SUI) - 3805 - 12th WTF appearance ('02-'12), 42-9 record, best result '03,'04,'06,'07,'10,'11 W - 1 title this year, 43-15 record
8) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) - 3330 - 1st WTF appearance - 1 title this year, 49-21 record
9) Richard Gasquet (FRA) - 3300 - 2nd WTF appearance ('07), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '07 RR - 3 titles this year, 50-20 record
Group B appears to be more difficult as it includes Djokovic, Del Potro, Federer, and Gasquet while Group A consists of Nadal, Ferrer, Berdych, and Wawrinka. Djokovic can still technically wrest the no. 1 ranking from Nadal but it would take the Serb winning the tournament undefeated and Nadal not winning a match. Other potential ranking battles would Del Potro passing Murray to get to no. 4 (big for Aussie Open), Berdych and Federer playing for no. 6, and Wawrinka and Gasquet battling for no. 8.
As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:
-Australian Open: Novak Djokovic
-French Open: Rafael Nadal
-Wimbledon: Andy Murray
-US Open: Rafael Nadal
-Indian Wells: Rafael Nadal
-Miami: Andy Murray
-Monte Carlo: Novak Djokovic
-Madrid: Rafael Nadal
-Rome: Rafael Nadal
-Toronto: Rafael Nadal
-Cincinatti: Rafael Nadal
-Shanghai: Novak Djokovic
-Paris: Novak Djokovic
The four men I called in the introduction were not drawn two and two into the groups but instead Djokovic ended up with both Del Potro and Federer while Nadal ought to be able to get out of his group without much difficulty, though he does have Ferrer there, who he just lost to in Paris. The poor soul of the tournament is Gasquet, who has a mountain ahead of him to avoid going 0-3. Group A does is without interest though, because Ferrer has a good chance to emerge and both Berdych and Wawrinka are dangerous on a given day.
I think Nadal and Ferrer in some order will advance out of Group A, and while Group B is a tough call I think Federer is motivated and playing well enough to make it out along with Djokovic. I still like Djokovic to win this title, whether he sees Federer or Nadal on the other side of the net in the final. I think Nadal would likely will win a Fedal semi, but Federer always plays well in London. Del Potro could also be a dark horse threat if he can get out of the group stage.
Enjoy the last bit of tennis, before nearly two months of boredom.
I almost have my slam summaries ready for posting, likely some time in the coming week.
Monday, October 21, 2013
Istanbul Preview
The top players on the WTA begin their final tournament of the year, the year end championships (YEC) tomorrow, in its final year, in Istanbul, Turkey. So here is my preview, beginning with the eight participants with their points this week and some stats.
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 12,040 - 8th YEC appearance ('01,'02,'04,'07-'09,'12), 21-5, best result '01,'09,'12 W (she hasn't lost at the event since '08) - 10 titles this year including the French and US Opens, 73-4 record
2) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 7676 - 5th YEC appearance ('09-'12), 7-8 record, best result '11 F - 3 titles this year including the Aussie Open, 42-7 record
4) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 5890 - 3nd YEC appearance ('11,'12 + alternate in '08,'09), 5-4 record, best result SF in '12 - 3 titles this year, 56-16 record
5) Na Li (CHN) - 5120 - 3rd YEC appearance ('11,'12), 2-4 record, best result 1-2 in RR both years - 1 title this year, 40-13 record
6) Petra Kvitova (CZE) - 4370 - 3rd YEC appearance ('11,'12), 5-1 record, best result '11 W - 2 titles this year, 49-21 record
7) Sara Errani (ITA) - 4190 - 2nd YEC appearance ('12), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '12 RR - 1 title this year, 46-22 record
8) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) - 5th YEC appearance ('07-'10), 4-10 record, best result SF in '08,'09 - 1 title this year, 45-18 record
9) Angelique Kerber (GER) - 3715 - 2nd YEC appearance ('12), 0-3 record, best result 0-3 in '12 RR - 1 title this year, 44-21 record
3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - withdrew
The red group appears to be much more difficult as it includes Serena, Radwanska, Kvitova, and Kerber, all of which are more or less in form. The white group will be Azarenka, Li, Errani, and Jankovic, which is wide open given the poor of Azarenka and Errani recently. Serena locked up the world no. 1 ranking long ago, so that will not be a story here. Radwanska only trails Sharapova by 1 point so she will return to no. 3 if she plays a match. Li could also overtake Sharapova with a good result, and the 6-9 rankings are totally in flux.
Looking through the stats, I was surprised to see how the close the records of the participants matched those from last year. The titles for each are down but that is because Serena won everything. The field is the same as 2012 except that Jankovic is playing rather than Sharapova.
As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:
-Australian Open: Victoria Azarenka
-French Open: Serena Williams
-Wimbledon: Marion Bartoli
-US Open: Serena Williams
-Doha: Victoria Azarenka
-Indian Wells: Maria Sharapova
-Miami: Serena Williams
-Madrid: Serena Williams
-Rome: Serena Williams
-Toronto: Serena Williams
-Cincinatti: Victoria Azarenka
-Tokyo: Petra Kvitova
-Beijing: Serena Williams
It would be a stunning upset if Serena does not win this tournament, especially once the came out the dangerous players of the moment all in Serena's group. The American would likely need to be beaten twice to be eliminated and how is that going to happen? I imagine Kvitova and Radwanska are the second-most dangerous players and winner of their match likely gets to the semifinals with a chance to rematch against Serena. Kerber, though, could throw a wrench into their plans with an upset. I like Serena and Radwanska to advance.
In the white group, we all wonder if Azarenka is going be healthy and in decent form. I don't think she will be and Errani very rarely beats any top player, I think Li and Jankovic will advance in some order. The Serb is in form at the moment. If those are indeed the four players in the semis, I think Radwanska and Serena will rematch and Serena will win. Even if Azarenka make the semis, I don't think she can beat Serena at this point, and the American will consolidate her amazing season.
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 12,040 - 8th YEC appearance ('01,'02,'04,'07-'09,'12), 21-5, best result '01,'09,'12 W (she hasn't lost at the event since '08) - 10 titles this year including the French and US Opens, 73-4 record
2) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 7676 - 5th YEC appearance ('09-'12), 7-8 record, best result '11 F - 3 titles this year including the Aussie Open, 42-7 record
4) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 5890 - 3nd YEC appearance ('11,'12 + alternate in '08,'09), 5-4 record, best result SF in '12 - 3 titles this year, 56-16 record
5) Na Li (CHN) - 5120 - 3rd YEC appearance ('11,'12), 2-4 record, best result 1-2 in RR both years - 1 title this year, 40-13 record
6) Petra Kvitova (CZE) - 4370 - 3rd YEC appearance ('11,'12), 5-1 record, best result '11 W - 2 titles this year, 49-21 record
7) Sara Errani (ITA) - 4190 - 2nd YEC appearance ('12), 1-2 record, best result 1-2 in '12 RR - 1 title this year, 46-22 record
8) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) - 5th YEC appearance ('07-'10), 4-10 record, best result SF in '08,'09 - 1 title this year, 45-18 record
9) Angelique Kerber (GER) - 3715 - 2nd YEC appearance ('12), 0-3 record, best result 0-3 in '12 RR - 1 title this year, 44-21 record
3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - withdrew
The red group appears to be much more difficult as it includes Serena, Radwanska, Kvitova, and Kerber, all of which are more or less in form. The white group will be Azarenka, Li, Errani, and Jankovic, which is wide open given the poor of Azarenka and Errani recently. Serena locked up the world no. 1 ranking long ago, so that will not be a story here. Radwanska only trails Sharapova by 1 point so she will return to no. 3 if she plays a match. Li could also overtake Sharapova with a good result, and the 6-9 rankings are totally in flux.
Looking through the stats, I was surprised to see how the close the records of the participants matched those from last year. The titles for each are down but that is because Serena won everything. The field is the same as 2012 except that Jankovic is playing rather than Sharapova.
As a review, here are the winners of the big titles this year:
-Australian Open: Victoria Azarenka
-French Open: Serena Williams
-Wimbledon: Marion Bartoli
-US Open: Serena Williams
-Doha: Victoria Azarenka
-Indian Wells: Maria Sharapova
-Miami: Serena Williams
-Madrid: Serena Williams
-Rome: Serena Williams
-Toronto: Serena Williams
-Cincinatti: Victoria Azarenka
-Tokyo: Petra Kvitova
-Beijing: Serena Williams
It would be a stunning upset if Serena does not win this tournament, especially once the came out the dangerous players of the moment all in Serena's group. The American would likely need to be beaten twice to be eliminated and how is that going to happen? I imagine Kvitova and Radwanska are the second-most dangerous players and winner of their match likely gets to the semifinals with a chance to rematch against Serena. Kerber, though, could throw a wrench into their plans with an upset. I like Serena and Radwanska to advance.
In the white group, we all wonder if Azarenka is going be healthy and in decent form. I don't think she will be and Errani very rarely beats any top player, I think Li and Jankovic will advance in some order. The Serb is in form at the moment. If those are indeed the four players in the semis, I think Radwanska and Serena will rematch and Serena will win. Even if Azarenka make the semis, I don't think she can beat Serena at this point, and the American will consolidate her amazing season.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Asian Preview
The women have begun their Asian swing in earnest this week as the tournament is Tokyo kicked off, to be followed shortly by Beijing. Then the week following that the men play their Masters event in Shanghai. This is always a different time of the year since the majors have all concluded and the season doesn't necessarily lead anywhere. But it still can contain some good tennis, and the second tier players will be jockeying for inclusion in each tour's year end championships. And often one of those players goes on a run, putting up some big results.
This year, the men will be without Murray, who often plays well in Asia, especially in Shanghai, where he has made the last two finals, winning one. I am also intrigued to see how Nadal will play after his amazing year so far, as his level often drops precipitously during the fall season.
On the women's side, will Serena and Azarenka be able maintain their dominance over the tour in these final Tier I events of the year? In the past, players like Radwanska, Wozniacki, and Petrova have done damage. So it is sort of a clean slate, another opportunity, to play good tennis, win money and ranking points.
Here are players defending the big ranking points over the next 3 weeks:
Tokyo (WTA)
2012 final: Nadia Petrova (RUS) def. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) 6-0 1-6 6-3
Semifinalists: Angelique Kerber (GER), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Quarterfinalists: Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Sara Errani (ITA), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Beijing (WTA)
2012 final: Azarenka def. Sharapova 6-3 6-1
Semifinalists: Na Li (CHN), Marion Bartoli (FRA)
Quarterfinalists: Radwanska, Kerber, Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP), Romina Oprandi (SUI)
Defending points in both tournaments:
-Azarenka (QF/W)
-Radwanska (F/QF)
-Sharapova (QF/F)
-Kerber (SF/QF)
Kerber has taken a step back this year and she be hard pressed to defend all these points, so unless she turns her game around, she'll be dropping from the top 10. Petrova also has not been very good this year so she'll almost assuredly plummet even farther as she defends her Tokyo title (Note - Nadia is injured and is not in the Tokyo draw). Wozniacki now begins to defend a large portion of points over the last month of the season. Oprandi was in the quarters in Beijing last year? That means she's going to really drop unless a miracle occurs.
Also of intrigue is who will make it to Istanbul. The top 5 are well ahead (Serena, Azarenka, Sharapova, Radwanska, Li) and Errani has a nice cushion. But is 5 (really 4 with Bartoli's retirement) for the two remaining spots:
-Kvitova 3260
-Bartoli 3173
-Jankovic 3155
-Vinci 3150
-Stephens 3046
Then Kerber, Lisicki, Wozniacki, Halep, Suarez Navarro, and Kirilenko have 2500-2700 points each so a deep run could put them in the mix.
Tokyo (ATP)
2012 final: Novak Djokovic (SRB) def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) 7-6 6-2
Semifinalists: Florian Mayer (GER), Feliciano Lopez (ESP)
Beijing (ATP)
2012 final: Kei Nishikori (JPN) def. Milos Raonic (CAN) 7-6 3-6 6-0
Semifinalists: Andy Murray (GBR), Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)
Shanghai (ATP)
2012 final: Djokovic def. Murray 5-7 7-6 6-3
Semifinalists: Roger Federer (SUI), Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Quarterfinalists: Tsonga, Marin Cilic (CRO), Tommy Haas (GER), Radek Stepanek (CZE)
We're still a few weeks out from this tournament, but Federer (if he plays) would do well to defend his points here. Murray will likely fall behind at least Ferrer by the time the season is over. Stepanek, though, is probably the one with the most to lose as he is only ranked no. 51 right now. And Cilic, too, since he is out on the drug suspension.
The men still have more of the season remaining so it is hard to comment much on their race for the world tour finals. The top 4 are locks to make but with Murray out there is really 5 spots open. Berdych and Del Potro are looking strong, but then it is 4 men for 3 spots: 2 French and 2 Swiss (Tsonga, Gasquet, Federer, Wawrinka). Raonic, Haas, and Isner are not too far back and with a strong fall they could move into contention. But we will know after the conclusion of the Asian swing.
This year, the men will be without Murray, who often plays well in Asia, especially in Shanghai, where he has made the last two finals, winning one. I am also intrigued to see how Nadal will play after his amazing year so far, as his level often drops precipitously during the fall season.
On the women's side, will Serena and Azarenka be able maintain their dominance over the tour in these final Tier I events of the year? In the past, players like Radwanska, Wozniacki, and Petrova have done damage. So it is sort of a clean slate, another opportunity, to play good tennis, win money and ranking points.
Here are players defending the big ranking points over the next 3 weeks:
Tokyo (WTA)
2012 final: Nadia Petrova (RUS) def. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) 6-0 1-6 6-3
Semifinalists: Angelique Kerber (GER), Samantha Stosur (AUS)
Quarterfinalists: Victoria Azarenka (BLR), Maria Sharapova (RUS), Sara Errani (ITA), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Beijing (WTA)
2012 final: Azarenka def. Sharapova 6-3 6-1
Semifinalists: Na Li (CHN), Marion Bartoli (FRA)
Quarterfinalists: Radwanska, Kerber, Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP), Romina Oprandi (SUI)
Defending points in both tournaments:
-Azarenka (QF/W)
-Radwanska (F/QF)
-Sharapova (QF/F)
-Kerber (SF/QF)
Kerber has taken a step back this year and she be hard pressed to defend all these points, so unless she turns her game around, she'll be dropping from the top 10. Petrova also has not been very good this year so she'll almost assuredly plummet even farther as she defends her Tokyo title (Note - Nadia is injured and is not in the Tokyo draw). Wozniacki now begins to defend a large portion of points over the last month of the season. Oprandi was in the quarters in Beijing last year? That means she's going to really drop unless a miracle occurs.
Also of intrigue is who will make it to Istanbul. The top 5 are well ahead (Serena, Azarenka, Sharapova, Radwanska, Li) and Errani has a nice cushion. But is 5 (really 4 with Bartoli's retirement) for the two remaining spots:
-Kvitova 3260
-Bartoli 3173
-Jankovic 3155
-Vinci 3150
-Stephens 3046
Then Kerber, Lisicki, Wozniacki, Halep, Suarez Navarro, and Kirilenko have 2500-2700 points each so a deep run could put them in the mix.
Tokyo (ATP)
2012 final: Novak Djokovic (SRB) def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) 7-6 6-2
Semifinalists: Florian Mayer (GER), Feliciano Lopez (ESP)
Beijing (ATP)
2012 final: Kei Nishikori (JPN) def. Milos Raonic (CAN) 7-6 3-6 6-0
Semifinalists: Andy Murray (GBR), Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)
Shanghai (ATP)
2012 final: Djokovic def. Murray 5-7 7-6 6-3
Semifinalists: Roger Federer (SUI), Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Quarterfinalists: Tsonga, Marin Cilic (CRO), Tommy Haas (GER), Radek Stepanek (CZE)
We're still a few weeks out from this tournament, but Federer (if he plays) would do well to defend his points here. Murray will likely fall behind at least Ferrer by the time the season is over. Stepanek, though, is probably the one with the most to lose as he is only ranked no. 51 right now. And Cilic, too, since he is out on the drug suspension.
The men still have more of the season remaining so it is hard to comment much on their race for the world tour finals. The top 4 are locks to make but with Murray out there is really 5 spots open. Berdych and Del Potro are looking strong, but then it is 4 men for 3 spots: 2 French and 2 Swiss (Tsonga, Gasquet, Federer, Wawrinka). Raonic, Haas, and Isner are not too far back and with a strong fall they could move into contention. But we will know after the conclusion of the Asian swing.
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