I thought I might go ahead and write a few thoughts on what I'm expecting and looking forward to in the 2015 tennis season. This offseason seems like it's been longer than usual, and I've definitely gone through some withdrawal. I can't wait to see sunny Melbourne on TV in just 15 days.
ATP
Depending on the play of one or two players, this year could turn out to be a dominant one for one man or could be a back-and-forth struggle between two or could be a wild free-for-all where we never know what's going to happen or who's going to win.
Novak Djokovic seems to poised, after a fairly consistent campaign in 2014, to continue to lead the tour and be in contention to win at each major. He did get beat a few times where it was unexpected, but he still won one major, the World Tour Finals along with 4 Masters. I expect he will be similar form the majority of the year, but his results may depend on...
Rafael Nadal's health and form. I don't see another clear rival for Djokovic week in and week out other than a healthy Nadal. If healthy (and I think that's a big if at this stage of his career) he can challenge Djokovic especially on clay but also on hard courts as we've seen in recent years. I think Nadal will come out firing at the Aussie Open and the clay season but then I expect him to wear down as the season progresses.
I really think Roger Federer can have a similar year to last year, playing fairly well in tour events and winning a Masters or two, even beating Djokovic occasionally but falling short at the major, either against Djokovic or Nadal or even a lower ranked player like a Tsonga or Berdych. Andy Murray seems to have dropped a level and it is unclear whether he can get back to near the top. Berdych, Ferrer, and Tsonga all also seem to have played their best tennis already. If last year is any indication, Wawrinka could be up-and-down but he starts up after a great Tour Finals and Davis Cup and I think is a threat to defend in Melbourne. He may play well here and there but I don't expect him to Djokovic and possibly Nadal at the top.
That leaves the younger crowd of guys like Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, and Cilic. I think Cilic's US Open may have been a flash in the plan while Raonic put consistent results across all surfaces all year long. The question is whether he can beat the elite players and get to a final or win a major. I am skeptical also of whether Nishikori to maintain his great form and stay in the top 5 but he is certainly capable of beating anyone anywhere. I have mixed feelings on Dimitrov, sometimes I think he's plateaued but then there are times when I think he can go farther. It will be an interesting year for these four guys to see if they can take another step forward.
Summary: I think Djokovic will mostly dominate unless Nadal is healthy enough to split matches and titles with him. Another player or two may win a major but I doubt Federer, Murray, Nishikori, or someone else will be able to be consistent enough to push for world no. 1.
Top 10 prediction: Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Raonic, Nishikori, Murray, Wawrinka, Monfils, Dimitrov, Berdych
American men: Last year was a big step forward the lower ranked American men Johnson and Sock, and mini-re-steps forward for Querrey and Young. It was a definite plateau for Isner. I don't see much changing for Isner and I think at some point soon Johnson will have reached his peak. Sock will miss the Aussie Open, which stunts his ranking a bit, but I think he still has room to climb. Young his a chance to get back into the top 50 but you never know with him. And I've pretty much given up on Querrey. Behind those guys there really isn't much coming. What happened to Harrison and Williams and Kudla etc?
WTA
I think this could be another similar year for the WTA with the top trophies split between several women and also the top 8 to 10 becoming fairly consistent over the course of the year. It will be extremely difficult to pick against Serena any given week or even to be year-end no. 1 but she will lose here and there and others will win majors.
With Serena, you also wonder how long her body can hold up as she continues to be bothered by small things here and there that prevent her from playing her best tennis on occasion. I like the chances of Simona Halep to win a major this year, likely at the French Open, especially if she can be injury free. She may have the best chance of pushing Serena over the course of the year, given that unlike Sharapova, she can beat Serena. There is also the chance that Victoria Azarenka returns to the tour in good forms and in the past she has certainly challenged the American. Another dark horse contender in former world no. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, who continued to take sets from Serena but could not get over the hump and actually beat her. Her run to the US Open final which included that absolutely spectacular point against Sharapova in the 4th round, announced she was back and could legitimately contend for a major.
There are others too, like Sharapova, who is very difficult to beat on clay and continues to hang around. The Russian has been a solid player the last couple years but she cannot beat Serena and now seems to have been passed by (in tournaments if not rankings) the younger players. But her week in week out consistency should keep her a top 5 player, just not one to win multiple slams and pass Serena in the rankings. Then there is Bouchard, who reached 2 majors semis and the Wimbledon final before slumping to close out the year, and Ivanovic, who surprisingly to me at least, is ranked no. 5 in the world. It will interesting to see if the Canadians slump continues or if she can pick herself up at the majors and then have a more consistent year on the regular tour. I expect her to stick around the top 10 but perhaps not have quite as more success as last year. I don't think Ivanovic has staying power but she's proved me wrong before. And what of Radwanska, who seems to have plateaued? This could be a big year for her as she is being caught up to and passed by younger players. She's been consistent on tour but she win enough big ones to get back in the top 5 and get back to major final? I think it's possible but unlikely.
Wow, I nearly forgot to mention Kvitova, the Wimbledon champion. She showed that she may have gotten her game and mind back together after some disappointing years. She can beat Serena, she can beat anyone, but is a little inconsistent. I think she'll be better this year than last but still not challenging Serena for the top spot, similar to Sharapova.
Summary: Serena will continue to be at the top of the tour but others will beat her and win titles. We will see 3 or 4 different major winners but the top 10 will overall be more consistent.
Top 10 prediction: Serena, Halep, Azarenka, Wozniacki, Sharapova, Kvitova, Radwanska, Kerber, Petkovic, Ivanovic
American women: There are plenty of them in the top 100 but not many in the top 20 (only the Williams sisters). Will anyone be able to become a consistent top 20 player and take that next step forward? The top 100 ladies are Serena, Venus, Keys, Lepchenko, Stephens, Vandeweghe, Riske, McHale, Davis, Rogers, Brengle, and Gibbs with Min and Townsend on the fringe. I fear that most of these women have reached their peak so this is something to watch this coming year. Can Keys, Stephens, or Vandeweghe make a move? Those would be the ones I have most confidence in. And how far up the rankings can youngsters like Min, Townsend, and even Duval, Chirico, and Vickery go?
And finally, here's some non-American young blood to keep an eye on. Do they keep moving up or do they plateau now that they're play all tour-level events. Zverev, Coric, Thiem, and Vesely for the men; Bencic, Vekic, Konjuh, Diyas, and Svitolina for the women.
Well, enjoy the year, I've already written far more than I thought I would when I sat down at the computer. I'll be tweeting @willcorbySTJ throughout the season as well as posting occasionally year.
Showing posts with label Season Notes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season Notes. Show all posts
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Djokovic Wins in Paris
2014 Masters Champions
Indian Wells - Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Miami - Djokovic
Monte Carlo - Stan Wawrinka (SUI)
Madrid - Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Rome - Djokovic
Toronto - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Cincinnati - Roger Federer (SUI)
Shanghai - Federer
Paris - Djokovic
2014 Premier Mandatory/Premier 5 i.e. Tier I Champions
Doha - Simona Halep (ROU)
Indian Wells - Flavia Pennetta (ITA)
Miami - Serena Williams (USA)
Madrid - Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Rome - Serena
Montreal - Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Cincinnati - Serena
Wuhan - Petra Kvitova (CZE)
Beijing - Sharapova
I may try to get some statistics out this week on champions and quarterfinalists as we await the Fed Cup, ATP World Tour Finals, and eventually the Davis Cup to finalize the 2014 season.
Congrats to Novak Djokovic winning his 20th Masters title in Paris, Andrea Petkovic for winning her 5th career title at the Tournament of Champions in Sofia, and Caroline Wozniacki for finishing the New York Marathon in an astounding 3:27 time for an amateur.
Indian Wells - Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Miami - Djokovic
Monte Carlo - Stan Wawrinka (SUI)
Madrid - Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Rome - Djokovic
Toronto - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Cincinnati - Roger Federer (SUI)
Shanghai - Federer
Paris - Djokovic
2014 Premier Mandatory/Premier 5 i.e. Tier I Champions
Doha - Simona Halep (ROU)
Indian Wells - Flavia Pennetta (ITA)
Miami - Serena Williams (USA)
Madrid - Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Rome - Serena
Montreal - Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Cincinnati - Serena
Wuhan - Petra Kvitova (CZE)
Beijing - Sharapova
I may try to get some statistics out this week on champions and quarterfinalists as we await the Fed Cup, ATP World Tour Finals, and eventually the Davis Cup to finalize the 2014 season.
Congrats to Novak Djokovic winning his 20th Masters title in Paris, Andrea Petkovic for winning her 5th career title at the Tournament of Champions in Sofia, and Caroline Wozniacki for finishing the New York Marathon in an astounding 3:27 time for an amateur.
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
2014 Mini-Preview
Here is a brief preview of the 2014 season as well as some of my plans for this year.
Top of the Men's Game
I expect Djokovic and Nadal to continue to battle it out on the game's biggest stages, with Murray perhaps getting his shot a time or two. I don't know that Nadal will be same monster he was in 2013 but he is certainly a favorite to win every event he enters after his tremendous year on hard courts. Djokovic rose back up against him toward the end of the year and these two should battle it out for world no. 1 throughout the year.
Murray, now a winner of 2 majors, will contend at times and perhaps win a major but I don't think he'll have the consistency of the other two. Del Potro and Federer will play more of a spoiler's role and while I think it is possible that one of them could win a major, I think it is unlikely. Federer should have a better year than last, especially against players ranked below, but I imagine he will continue to struggle against those ranked above him.
It is hard to see anyone else break through with the top of the game the way it is. I believe Ferrer will take a step back this and possibly fall out of the top 5 as he ages. Wawrinka, Tsonga, and Berdych may remain top 10 players but it's hard to see any of them taking the next step. And will we even see any new blood? Raonic and Isner each reached a Masters final last year, and Janowicz has made steady improvement. Fognini enjoyed a career year in 2013, but has he reached his ceiling? As good as the top 4 or 5 are compared to the rest of the tour, there is another clear level occupied by the rest of the top 10 or so, and it is difficult to predict anyone new breaking through.
American Men
The state of the American men's game continues to spiral downward. There is now only one American in the top 40. Isner is what he is and while he can make an exciting run here and there, it is hard to see him reaching the World Tour Finals, winning a Masters, or making it past the quarters of a major. While I'd love to be wrong, he can give anyone a tough match on any given day, but he can lose to almost anyone.
I expect a bounce back from Querrey, currently ranked no. 46, but how far up can he go? He has been very inconsistent, especially after returning from injury. There are a number of Americans in the 80 to 150 range including Smyczek, Russell, Young, Klahn, Harrison, Sock, Kudla, Ram, Williams, Kuznetsov, and Johnson. This is a mix of young talent and journeymen. I like the rise Smyczek has made over the past year but I'm not sure he can go up much further. Williams and Johnson seem to have stalled. Harrison needs new life. It is good to see Young back in the top 100 but one always wonders where his mind is. Sock and Kudla are on the rise and I would like to see them make strides this year. Klahn has seemingly come from nowhere and I really don't know much about him. There are a few in this group that have some potential, but nothing to be overly excited about, especially for a nation with tennis tradition that the US has.
Top of the Women's Game
Serena, Serena, Serena, and Azarenka. Some have been talking about Serena winning The Grand Slam this year, and while that's possible I believe she'll trip up at a major or two. Azarenka is the only player who has been able to challenge her much over the past year. I would think those two would end up winning all the majors between them. I'm not sure what else there is to say.
Sharapova has been good off and on over the past couple years, but she never beats Serena and rarely beats Azarenka off of clay. Radwanska has been very good against the rest of the tour, but struggles against the other three. Li and Kvitova both have the game to challenge the top tier but are very inconsistent. Is anyone going to step up and reach major semis consistently and be a clear cut 3 through 6 ranked player. That top 10-ish of the tour was pretty solid a year ago but over the past few months there has been little consistency behind Serena and Azarenka.
There were a few breakout players a year ago and one wonders if they can get into that top 10 and perhaps even challenge the top tier on occasion. I think of Halep and all her titles, Stephens and her success at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon, and then some others lower down the rankings. There appears to be some opportunity for a couple players if they can string to together consistent results for a few months.
American Women
As bleak as the future looks for the US men, it is strong for the women. Besides Serena at the top, there are 5 other Americans in the top 50, and 11 total in the top 100. I mentioned Stephens above, Hampton and Keys both broke out last year, and there are a crop of youngsters behind them, not to mention veterans like King and Mattek-Sands hanging around. The world may soon become familiar with names like Riske, Davis, Vandeweghe, Min, and Duval just to name a few. And that's leaving out Lepchenko, McHale, Oudin, and the like who have already had some time in the spotlight. Of the 24 Americans ranked in the top 200, 17 of them were born in the '90s.
Blog Future
The time I have for running this blog seems to be diminishing. I am going to try and keep up my stats pages (slam summaries, tournament champs and quarterfinalists, and WTA birth year top 10) since I enjoy that a lot. I will also keep doing my Davis and Fed Cup previews and recaps. But my weekly tournament reporting will likely slip some or be briefer, still mulling that over. We will see when the majors come around, what I'll be able to put up. And I would like to do some comparisons with all the stats I've compiled, but I'm not sure when that will happen.
Quick Quarterfinalist Stats
-Of the 14 men who reached at least 9 ATP quarterfinals, 12 were ranked in the top 13. The only missing top 13 member was Raonic (#11, reached 6 but the Rogers Cup final). #16 Fognini and #19 Simon were the men renamed outside the top 13 that made at least 9 quarters.
-The lowest ranked man to reach 8 quarters was #31 Monfils.
-#42 Monaco had the lowest rank of those to reach 7 quarters.
-Of the 12 women who reached at least 8 WTA quarterfinals, all were ranked in the top 14. Only Halep (#11, reached 7) and Bartoli (#13, reached 4 but retired in August) are in the top 14 and failed to reach 8 quarters.
-The lowest ranked player to reach 7 quarters was #29 Safarova.
-Beck had by far the lowest rank of those to reach 6 quarters at #58.
-50 different countries had at least one tour quarterfinalist. Countries with only one quarterfinal reached were Georgia, Montenegro, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia.
-Spaniards reached 110 quarters, the French 84, the Americans 67, the Germans 65, the Russians 64, the Italians 60, and the Czechs 54.
-Spain also led with the number of different players to reach a tour quarterfinal with 24. The USA was second with 21, France had 19, Russia 17, and Germany 16.
Top of the Men's Game
I expect Djokovic and Nadal to continue to battle it out on the game's biggest stages, with Murray perhaps getting his shot a time or two. I don't know that Nadal will be same monster he was in 2013 but he is certainly a favorite to win every event he enters after his tremendous year on hard courts. Djokovic rose back up against him toward the end of the year and these two should battle it out for world no. 1 throughout the year.
Murray, now a winner of 2 majors, will contend at times and perhaps win a major but I don't think he'll have the consistency of the other two. Del Potro and Federer will play more of a spoiler's role and while I think it is possible that one of them could win a major, I think it is unlikely. Federer should have a better year than last, especially against players ranked below, but I imagine he will continue to struggle against those ranked above him.
It is hard to see anyone else break through with the top of the game the way it is. I believe Ferrer will take a step back this and possibly fall out of the top 5 as he ages. Wawrinka, Tsonga, and Berdych may remain top 10 players but it's hard to see any of them taking the next step. And will we even see any new blood? Raonic and Isner each reached a Masters final last year, and Janowicz has made steady improvement. Fognini enjoyed a career year in 2013, but has he reached his ceiling? As good as the top 4 or 5 are compared to the rest of the tour, there is another clear level occupied by the rest of the top 10 or so, and it is difficult to predict anyone new breaking through.
American Men
The state of the American men's game continues to spiral downward. There is now only one American in the top 40. Isner is what he is and while he can make an exciting run here and there, it is hard to see him reaching the World Tour Finals, winning a Masters, or making it past the quarters of a major. While I'd love to be wrong, he can give anyone a tough match on any given day, but he can lose to almost anyone.
I expect a bounce back from Querrey, currently ranked no. 46, but how far up can he go? He has been very inconsistent, especially after returning from injury. There are a number of Americans in the 80 to 150 range including Smyczek, Russell, Young, Klahn, Harrison, Sock, Kudla, Ram, Williams, Kuznetsov, and Johnson. This is a mix of young talent and journeymen. I like the rise Smyczek has made over the past year but I'm not sure he can go up much further. Williams and Johnson seem to have stalled. Harrison needs new life. It is good to see Young back in the top 100 but one always wonders where his mind is. Sock and Kudla are on the rise and I would like to see them make strides this year. Klahn has seemingly come from nowhere and I really don't know much about him. There are a few in this group that have some potential, but nothing to be overly excited about, especially for a nation with tennis tradition that the US has.
Top of the Women's Game
Serena, Serena, Serena, and Azarenka. Some have been talking about Serena winning The Grand Slam this year, and while that's possible I believe she'll trip up at a major or two. Azarenka is the only player who has been able to challenge her much over the past year. I would think those two would end up winning all the majors between them. I'm not sure what else there is to say.
Sharapova has been good off and on over the past couple years, but she never beats Serena and rarely beats Azarenka off of clay. Radwanska has been very good against the rest of the tour, but struggles against the other three. Li and Kvitova both have the game to challenge the top tier but are very inconsistent. Is anyone going to step up and reach major semis consistently and be a clear cut 3 through 6 ranked player. That top 10-ish of the tour was pretty solid a year ago but over the past few months there has been little consistency behind Serena and Azarenka.
There were a few breakout players a year ago and one wonders if they can get into that top 10 and perhaps even challenge the top tier on occasion. I think of Halep and all her titles, Stephens and her success at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon, and then some others lower down the rankings. There appears to be some opportunity for a couple players if they can string to together consistent results for a few months.
American Women
As bleak as the future looks for the US men, it is strong for the women. Besides Serena at the top, there are 5 other Americans in the top 50, and 11 total in the top 100. I mentioned Stephens above, Hampton and Keys both broke out last year, and there are a crop of youngsters behind them, not to mention veterans like King and Mattek-Sands hanging around. The world may soon become familiar with names like Riske, Davis, Vandeweghe, Min, and Duval just to name a few. And that's leaving out Lepchenko, McHale, Oudin, and the like who have already had some time in the spotlight. Of the 24 Americans ranked in the top 200, 17 of them were born in the '90s.
Blog Future
The time I have for running this blog seems to be diminishing. I am going to try and keep up my stats pages (slam summaries, tournament champs and quarterfinalists, and WTA birth year top 10) since I enjoy that a lot. I will also keep doing my Davis and Fed Cup previews and recaps. But my weekly tournament reporting will likely slip some or be briefer, still mulling that over. We will see when the majors come around, what I'll be able to put up. And I would like to do some comparisons with all the stats I've compiled, but I'm not sure when that will happen.
Quick Quarterfinalist Stats
-Of the 14 men who reached at least 9 ATP quarterfinals, 12 were ranked in the top 13. The only missing top 13 member was Raonic (#11, reached 6 but the Rogers Cup final). #16 Fognini and #19 Simon were the men renamed outside the top 13 that made at least 9 quarters.
-The lowest ranked man to reach 8 quarters was #31 Monfils.
-#42 Monaco had the lowest rank of those to reach 7 quarters.
-Of the 12 women who reached at least 8 WTA quarterfinals, all were ranked in the top 14. Only Halep (#11, reached 7) and Bartoli (#13, reached 4 but retired in August) are in the top 14 and failed to reach 8 quarters.
-The lowest ranked player to reach 7 quarters was #29 Safarova.
-Beck had by far the lowest rank of those to reach 6 quarters at #58.
-50 different countries had at least one tour quarterfinalist. Countries with only one quarterfinal reached were Georgia, Montenegro, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia.
-Spaniards reached 110 quarters, the French 84, the Americans 67, the Germans 65, the Russians 64, the Italians 60, and the Czechs 54.
-Spain also led with the number of different players to reach a tour quarterfinal with 24. The USA was second with 21, France had 19, Russia 17, and Germany 16.
Friday, December 28, 2012
2013 Preview
The 2013 tennis season gets underway Saturday night (in the US) with 6 tournaments plus the Hopman Cup as players prep for the Australian Open. I plan to keep updating several of the pages that you can link to on the right, including a list 2013 champions and hopefully the slam summaries, although that depends some on the time I have available. I am considering making some changes to the weekly posts but am still turning those over in my mind. There is some bad news about the WTA Top 10 by Birth Year pages in that the WTA changed their website so that one can no longer sort their rankings by date of birth. I will try and contact them about this but if the rankings can't be sorted my birth year rankings will likely be discontinued.
I want to start by recaps my "eye"-men and women that I pointed out at the beginning of 2012, players I thought had a chance to rise and make their presence known on the tour.
Men: Haase, Muller, Stebe, Souza, Pospisil
Women: Pervak, Begu, Halep, Erakovic, Barthel
All of these players really flatlined on their respective tours and none made the jump into the top 50 or 25 (dependent on where they were ranked). Haase and Begu did each win a title but didn't make much noise beyond that. Barthel also won a title and was on fire early in the year, earning a seed at a couple majors, but then went on a long losing streak and seemed to reach her ceiling. Several of these ten are not in the top 100 and only Halep and Barthel are still in the top 50, so my eyes weren't on the right people.
So here's a few thoughts on the upcoming seasons:
ATP
The dominance of the big 4 waned somewhat over 2012 at the Masters levels with Ferrer stepping up and winning a Masters in Paris and Isner, Berdych, and Gasquet each reaching Masters finals. I expect in 2013 some more of the same since although Murray has stepped his game, Federer is playing less and Nadal is battling back from injury. I do not expect a first time major champion to appear in 2013 after Murray's run to the podium in New York last year but I wouldn't be shocked with a new finalist. I expect Djokovic to be no. 1 for most if not all of the year as I'm not sold on Murray being a week-in, week-out competitor. Federer should be in the mix at most of the tournaments he plays while Nadal is a big question mark. While I do think Nadal should be able to find his form by the clay season, the French Open is the most open as it has been since the Spaniard won their in 2005.
If anyone is to battle past of the big 4 on the final weekend of the majors and in Masters finals, I really only have three names for you, and one is a bit a question mark himself: Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Richard Gasquet. Berdych made the semis of the US Open last year and made 2 semis and a final in 2010. Del Potro made all 4 quarterfinals last year beat Federer twice and the end of last year plus Djokovic at the Olympics. Gasquet made the fourth round of all 4 majors and the Rogers Cup final. All three are only a nice draw or big win away from a semi, and we know they have the talent to beat a big name. Will this be the year? I admit Gasquet is a big of a stretch but I wanted to throw his name in as a dark horse.
Those not on that list include Ferrer, Tsonga, and Isner. Ferrer rarely beats a top 4 player especially at the majors. I am souring quickly on Tsonga, who seems to enjoy doing just enough to get to London at year's end, though we'll see what he does in Australia where he has thrived in the past. Isner may have reached his peak as his second half of 2012 was not very good.
Risers: After his breakout at the Aussie Open 2 years ago, Raonic hasn't risen as dramatic as once thought but he has risen. He has now won 3 titles and has given Federer some good matches. But he has flamed out early a few times at majors. He may be ready to get back to the second week of majors now, though it may be another year or two before he becomes a serious contender. Many others that broke out in 2011 including Dolgopolov, Tomic, and Harrison have also leveled off with the Ukrainian higher than the others.
But two players have replaced them as top new talents in the Belgian David Goffin and the Pole Jerzy Janowicz. Goffin seems to be doing a steady rise and we'll see if he can keep it up in a full season on the main tour. The same goes for Janowicz, although he would seem to have a higher trajectory after reaching the Paris final following a tear through some challengers. Also worth noting here are Nishikori and Dimitrov. The former is establishing himself as a top 25 players but that may be his ceiling while the latter may have finally found his footing and could become upwardly mobile again.
Americans: With the retirement of Roddick, the immediate future doesn't look great for American players. Isner seems to be a top 15 or 20 feature but may have reached his ceiling. Querrey is now back from injury, is rising again, and has shown the potential to beat top players and could also become a top 15 player, but I doubt he can put it all together for two weeks to make a serious major run. Fish seems to be on the way down after a career year in 2011.
Looking at younger prospects, Harrison is down to no. 69 and hasn't been able to take his game to the next level. Kudla and Sock, who played out the '10 boys US Open final, are both in the top 150 and could be threats down the road but likely not this year. There are also Steve Johnson and Rhyne Williams in the top 200 who seem to have decent game. In between are hardworking journeymen Russell, Ram, Levine, Blake, and others plus Baker who plateaued after he initially was a success following his return to the tour. Young is flailing at no. 189.
So this could be a frustrating year for American tennis fans but it will be interesting to follow Kudla, Sock, Johnson, and Williams over 2013 to see if there will be any optimism for the years following.
WTA
The top tier of women's players are starting resemble in a small way the top of the men's game with Azarenka, Sharapova, and Serena sharing the majority of the big titles and especially the majors. I really expect more of the same in 2013 and wonder if Serena could have a massive year. Only poor performances at the Australian and French Opens last year kept her from getting back to no. 1 and having an even better year as she went unbeaten against Azarenka and Sharapova. I expect her to get to no. 1 and hold it at least through Wimbledon. Azarenka and Sharapova have reached a level of consistency on the tour as to be in the running throughout most of the year too, but if they're going to be no. 1 for long they will need to beat Serena Williams. I would be a little surprised if someone outside those 3 wins a major but we've been surprised by the WTA before, specifically in Paris.
I go back and forth on the future of Radwanska the elder. She reached the Wimbledon final and took a set off Serena among other exploits but I am beginning to toward her level falling off a bit. She is too vulnerable to the early upset and can't beat Azarenka or Serena. She needs to keep having good draws and beating the players ranked 5 through 8 consistently to stay at no. 4. Beyond her there are a bunch of players who have shown the potential to rise up and win a major but have been very inconsistent and the top 3 plus Radwanska have risen above them. This group includes Kvitova, Li, Stosur, and even Bartoli to a lesser extent. These ladies could win a major, but I'm not betting on it. Then there is Kerber, who has reached 2 semis in 5 majors, but kind of petered out at the end of the year. I thought she was on her way to being the next best thing, but I've heard others think she has overachieved to get to no. 5. I will reserve judgment until another year has passed.
Then there's what I'm now calling the WTA's Ferrer: Caroline Wozniacki. She is not a no. 1 player but she is a top 10. I'm guessing (based on her last few '12 tournaments) that she will bounce back to win 4 or 5 titles and end the year somewhere between 5 and 7 and reach a major quarter or two. Last year she wasn't even beating the players she beat all the time in '10 and '11 to get to and stay at no. 1. I think she'll be beating those players this year a majority of the time, enough to have a nice season and get her smile back.
Risers: Most of the risers on the WTA over the past year or so have been veterans finding new life such as Errani, Petrova, and Vinci, to some extent Ivanovic, and players like Makarova and Hsieh. There hasn't been lots of new young talent entering the top 25 like Kerber. There have been some players slowly moving up in the top 100 though like Radwanska the younger, Stephens, the Brits Robson and Watson, Babos, and Arruabarrena-Vecino. There are also some youngsters rising up rapidly from the junior ranks in German Annika Beck and Croat Donna Vekic. These players are a year out from their male counterparts Raonic, Goffin, and Janowicz.
Americans: Obviously the top of the American game is good on the women's side with Serena and even Venus coming back to form. But the women have much more promising younger players ready to make an immediate impact than the men. I am interested in seeing how McHale handles the first part of '13 after her growth was stunted by an illness late in '12. She had steadily risen throughout the first part of '12. Also steadily rising up to US #2 position was Lepchenko who is now unbelievably ranked no. 21. I would think she's reached her ceiling but she'll be interesting to watch to see how she follows up her career year.
Below them, the top 100 is filled with promising American talent. Stephens will look to build on a breakout '12. Oudin had a revival year that included winning her first career title as a qualifier on Birmingham's grass. Vandeweghe has returned to the top 100 after an awful '11. Davis used a nice fall to reach the top 100 while Hampton was quietly there most of the year. Looking farther down, Cohen and Keys have had some decent runs at WTA tournaments and college star Burdette is making the transition to the WTA well. Then there's former girls US Open champ Min who just broke into the top 200.
This could be a make or break year for some of these women as to whether they will continue to rise or if they will be stuck toiling on the challenger circuit like King, Mattek-Sands, and Falconi now are.
And so now, to the season. Please comment if you have any suggestions as to what you'd like to see this blog focus on.
I want to start by recaps my "eye"-men and women that I pointed out at the beginning of 2012, players I thought had a chance to rise and make their presence known on the tour.
Men: Haase, Muller, Stebe, Souza, Pospisil
Women: Pervak, Begu, Halep, Erakovic, Barthel
All of these players really flatlined on their respective tours and none made the jump into the top 50 or 25 (dependent on where they were ranked). Haase and Begu did each win a title but didn't make much noise beyond that. Barthel also won a title and was on fire early in the year, earning a seed at a couple majors, but then went on a long losing streak and seemed to reach her ceiling. Several of these ten are not in the top 100 and only Halep and Barthel are still in the top 50, so my eyes weren't on the right people.
So here's a few thoughts on the upcoming seasons:
ATP
The dominance of the big 4 waned somewhat over 2012 at the Masters levels with Ferrer stepping up and winning a Masters in Paris and Isner, Berdych, and Gasquet each reaching Masters finals. I expect in 2013 some more of the same since although Murray has stepped his game, Federer is playing less and Nadal is battling back from injury. I do not expect a first time major champion to appear in 2013 after Murray's run to the podium in New York last year but I wouldn't be shocked with a new finalist. I expect Djokovic to be no. 1 for most if not all of the year as I'm not sold on Murray being a week-in, week-out competitor. Federer should be in the mix at most of the tournaments he plays while Nadal is a big question mark. While I do think Nadal should be able to find his form by the clay season, the French Open is the most open as it has been since the Spaniard won their in 2005.
If anyone is to battle past of the big 4 on the final weekend of the majors and in Masters finals, I really only have three names for you, and one is a bit a question mark himself: Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Richard Gasquet. Berdych made the semis of the US Open last year and made 2 semis and a final in 2010. Del Potro made all 4 quarterfinals last year beat Federer twice and the end of last year plus Djokovic at the Olympics. Gasquet made the fourth round of all 4 majors and the Rogers Cup final. All three are only a nice draw or big win away from a semi, and we know they have the talent to beat a big name. Will this be the year? I admit Gasquet is a big of a stretch but I wanted to throw his name in as a dark horse.
Those not on that list include Ferrer, Tsonga, and Isner. Ferrer rarely beats a top 4 player especially at the majors. I am souring quickly on Tsonga, who seems to enjoy doing just enough to get to London at year's end, though we'll see what he does in Australia where he has thrived in the past. Isner may have reached his peak as his second half of 2012 was not very good.
Risers: After his breakout at the Aussie Open 2 years ago, Raonic hasn't risen as dramatic as once thought but he has risen. He has now won 3 titles and has given Federer some good matches. But he has flamed out early a few times at majors. He may be ready to get back to the second week of majors now, though it may be another year or two before he becomes a serious contender. Many others that broke out in 2011 including Dolgopolov, Tomic, and Harrison have also leveled off with the Ukrainian higher than the others.
But two players have replaced them as top new talents in the Belgian David Goffin and the Pole Jerzy Janowicz. Goffin seems to be doing a steady rise and we'll see if he can keep it up in a full season on the main tour. The same goes for Janowicz, although he would seem to have a higher trajectory after reaching the Paris final following a tear through some challengers. Also worth noting here are Nishikori and Dimitrov. The former is establishing himself as a top 25 players but that may be his ceiling while the latter may have finally found his footing and could become upwardly mobile again.
Americans: With the retirement of Roddick, the immediate future doesn't look great for American players. Isner seems to be a top 15 or 20 feature but may have reached his ceiling. Querrey is now back from injury, is rising again, and has shown the potential to beat top players and could also become a top 15 player, but I doubt he can put it all together for two weeks to make a serious major run. Fish seems to be on the way down after a career year in 2011.
Looking at younger prospects, Harrison is down to no. 69 and hasn't been able to take his game to the next level. Kudla and Sock, who played out the '10 boys US Open final, are both in the top 150 and could be threats down the road but likely not this year. There are also Steve Johnson and Rhyne Williams in the top 200 who seem to have decent game. In between are hardworking journeymen Russell, Ram, Levine, Blake, and others plus Baker who plateaued after he initially was a success following his return to the tour. Young is flailing at no. 189.
So this could be a frustrating year for American tennis fans but it will be interesting to follow Kudla, Sock, Johnson, and Williams over 2013 to see if there will be any optimism for the years following.
WTA
The top tier of women's players are starting resemble in a small way the top of the men's game with Azarenka, Sharapova, and Serena sharing the majority of the big titles and especially the majors. I really expect more of the same in 2013 and wonder if Serena could have a massive year. Only poor performances at the Australian and French Opens last year kept her from getting back to no. 1 and having an even better year as she went unbeaten against Azarenka and Sharapova. I expect her to get to no. 1 and hold it at least through Wimbledon. Azarenka and Sharapova have reached a level of consistency on the tour as to be in the running throughout most of the year too, but if they're going to be no. 1 for long they will need to beat Serena Williams. I would be a little surprised if someone outside those 3 wins a major but we've been surprised by the WTA before, specifically in Paris.
I go back and forth on the future of Radwanska the elder. She reached the Wimbledon final and took a set off Serena among other exploits but I am beginning to toward her level falling off a bit. She is too vulnerable to the early upset and can't beat Azarenka or Serena. She needs to keep having good draws and beating the players ranked 5 through 8 consistently to stay at no. 4. Beyond her there are a bunch of players who have shown the potential to rise up and win a major but have been very inconsistent and the top 3 plus Radwanska have risen above them. This group includes Kvitova, Li, Stosur, and even Bartoli to a lesser extent. These ladies could win a major, but I'm not betting on it. Then there is Kerber, who has reached 2 semis in 5 majors, but kind of petered out at the end of the year. I thought she was on her way to being the next best thing, but I've heard others think she has overachieved to get to no. 5. I will reserve judgment until another year has passed.
Then there's what I'm now calling the WTA's Ferrer: Caroline Wozniacki. She is not a no. 1 player but she is a top 10. I'm guessing (based on her last few '12 tournaments) that she will bounce back to win 4 or 5 titles and end the year somewhere between 5 and 7 and reach a major quarter or two. Last year she wasn't even beating the players she beat all the time in '10 and '11 to get to and stay at no. 1. I think she'll be beating those players this year a majority of the time, enough to have a nice season and get her smile back.
Risers: Most of the risers on the WTA over the past year or so have been veterans finding new life such as Errani, Petrova, and Vinci, to some extent Ivanovic, and players like Makarova and Hsieh. There hasn't been lots of new young talent entering the top 25 like Kerber. There have been some players slowly moving up in the top 100 though like Radwanska the younger, Stephens, the Brits Robson and Watson, Babos, and Arruabarrena-Vecino. There are also some youngsters rising up rapidly from the junior ranks in German Annika Beck and Croat Donna Vekic. These players are a year out from their male counterparts Raonic, Goffin, and Janowicz.
Americans: Obviously the top of the American game is good on the women's side with Serena and even Venus coming back to form. But the women have much more promising younger players ready to make an immediate impact than the men. I am interested in seeing how McHale handles the first part of '13 after her growth was stunted by an illness late in '12. She had steadily risen throughout the first part of '12. Also steadily rising up to US #2 position was Lepchenko who is now unbelievably ranked no. 21. I would think she's reached her ceiling but she'll be interesting to watch to see how she follows up her career year.
Below them, the top 100 is filled with promising American talent. Stephens will look to build on a breakout '12. Oudin had a revival year that included winning her first career title as a qualifier on Birmingham's grass. Vandeweghe has returned to the top 100 after an awful '11. Davis used a nice fall to reach the top 100 while Hampton was quietly there most of the year. Looking farther down, Cohen and Keys have had some decent runs at WTA tournaments and college star Burdette is making the transition to the WTA well. Then there's former girls US Open champ Min who just broke into the top 200.
This could be a make or break year for some of these women as to whether they will continue to rise or if they will be stuck toiling on the challenger circuit like King, Mattek-Sands, and Falconi now are.
And so now, to the season. Please comment if you have any suggestions as to what you'd like to see this blog focus on.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
2012 Preview
So after a 4 or 5 week off-season, here we are again at the dawn of a new season, and one can understand some of the players complaining about the lack of a true off-season. This year I plan to continue my weekly blog updates after the completion of most tournaments with additional posts during Masters events and of course the four majors. But I am going to change the format just a bit and focus more the actual results themselves, with their associated statistics and rankings ramifications rather than getting too much into description of matches and cutting back some on predictions. This may be evolving some as the season goes along, but you have plenty of other places to go to get opinions and thoughts. I will stick more to the facts (scorelines) and try and bring out some more depth just by looking at the results. Not sure if that made any sense, but hopefully you (and I) will see as the year progresses.
I will keep a page listing 2012 tournament champions as I have the past two years, and will also occasionally update the WTA Top 100 by Birth Year page (I may try and do more commentary on that). I should still be able to keep up my “Slam Summary” stats in the background to post those in September or October. I have a couple other stat projects I may or may not get to as time allows. And finally, Davis Cup and Fed Cup will continue to be a focus, woven throughout the regular tournaments, since I really do enjoy international competitions.
Now without further ado, here are some things I’m looking forward to in 2012:
Uncertainty: This can probably be said about most seasons, as each begins with a clean slate. As of now, there are 8 major trophies to be won, 64 major quarterfinal slots to be filled, and 16 spots at the year end championships to be claimed. While we have a few penciled in to some of those blanks, we have no idea who some of them will be. I am looking forward to finding out what this season holds.
Battles for no. 1: This is the first year since what, 2003, that we have the potential for a real back-and-forth battle for no. 1 on the men’s side. Look at these numbers: Federer 237, Nadal 46, Federer 48, Nadal 56, Djokovic 26 and counting. Those are the last five players to hold no. 1 with their weeks. These guys got to number 1 and stayed there. Compare this to the period between March 1998 and September 1999 (18 months) when the ranking changed hands 12 times between 6 different players. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and maybe even Murray, have a legitimate chance to hold the no. 1 ranking at some point this year, and it could be a season-long battle.
On the women’s side, Wozniacki has held the no. 1 ranking for all but one week since late 2010. There’s a decent chance that changes early in 2012 but not a given as Kvitova has 2 titles and a major quarterfinal to defend early on. And then in the second half of the year, Kvitova defends a bunch of points while Wozniacki defends relatively few. Then throw in Serena, Clijsters, and maybe Sharapova and Azarenka and the women could have a little battle of their own.
Young Americans: I’m hoping the young Americans can take another step forward this year after an encouraging end of the year last year. Christina McHale was the top ranked player born in 1992 at #42 and Sloane Stephens was the top ranked player born in 1993 at #97. Vania King, Irina Falconi, and the young Madison Keys had nice seasons, and then of course there’s Melanie Oudin and Coco Vandeweghe who disappointed last year. What will these ladies’ careers look like another year in main tour matches? On the men’s side, I have my eye on not only Ryan Harrison and Donald Young, but also the two young men who played in the 2010 US Open boys final: Denis Kudla and Jack Sock.
Dominance of the Big 4: Will anyone, and if anyone, then who, will be able to breakthrough to a major semifinal this year after Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray claimed 14 of the 16 slots and won all nine Masters. I’m looking most at Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but also David Ferrer (who seems to always be around) and Juan Martin Del Potro (though less so than many). I also wonder if Andy Roddick is due for a deep run.
The Olympic Games: I am huge fan of the Olympics and this year we get the tennis tournament at Wimbledon, and also mixed doubles added. Can Federer or Serena complete the Career Golden Slam? I can’t wait for London 2012.
Finally, I am going publish a list of lower ranked players I’m keeping my eye on. I’ve done similar things in years past with mixed results. Also this year I’m going to make a point of mentioning “risers” in the rankings that maybe fly under the radar of some.
ATP
-Robin Haase (NED)
-Gilles Muller (LUX)
-Cedric Marcel-Stebe (GER)
-Joao Souza (BRA)
-Vasek Pospisil (CAN)
WTA
-Ksenia Pervak (KAZ)
-Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU)
-Simona Halep (ROU)
-Marina Erakovic (NZL)
-Mona Barthel (GER)
I will keep a page listing 2012 tournament champions as I have the past two years, and will also occasionally update the WTA Top 100 by Birth Year page (I may try and do more commentary on that). I should still be able to keep up my “Slam Summary” stats in the background to post those in September or October. I have a couple other stat projects I may or may not get to as time allows. And finally, Davis Cup and Fed Cup will continue to be a focus, woven throughout the regular tournaments, since I really do enjoy international competitions.
Now without further ado, here are some things I’m looking forward to in 2012:
Uncertainty: This can probably be said about most seasons, as each begins with a clean slate. As of now, there are 8 major trophies to be won, 64 major quarterfinal slots to be filled, and 16 spots at the year end championships to be claimed. While we have a few penciled in to some of those blanks, we have no idea who some of them will be. I am looking forward to finding out what this season holds.
Battles for no. 1: This is the first year since what, 2003, that we have the potential for a real back-and-forth battle for no. 1 on the men’s side. Look at these numbers: Federer 237, Nadal 46, Federer 48, Nadal 56, Djokovic 26 and counting. Those are the last five players to hold no. 1 with their weeks. These guys got to number 1 and stayed there. Compare this to the period between March 1998 and September 1999 (18 months) when the ranking changed hands 12 times between 6 different players. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and maybe even Murray, have a legitimate chance to hold the no. 1 ranking at some point this year, and it could be a season-long battle.
On the women’s side, Wozniacki has held the no. 1 ranking for all but one week since late 2010. There’s a decent chance that changes early in 2012 but not a given as Kvitova has 2 titles and a major quarterfinal to defend early on. And then in the second half of the year, Kvitova defends a bunch of points while Wozniacki defends relatively few. Then throw in Serena, Clijsters, and maybe Sharapova and Azarenka and the women could have a little battle of their own.
Young Americans: I’m hoping the young Americans can take another step forward this year after an encouraging end of the year last year. Christina McHale was the top ranked player born in 1992 at #42 and Sloane Stephens was the top ranked player born in 1993 at #97. Vania King, Irina Falconi, and the young Madison Keys had nice seasons, and then of course there’s Melanie Oudin and Coco Vandeweghe who disappointed last year. What will these ladies’ careers look like another year in main tour matches? On the men’s side, I have my eye on not only Ryan Harrison and Donald Young, but also the two young men who played in the 2010 US Open boys final: Denis Kudla and Jack Sock.
Dominance of the Big 4: Will anyone, and if anyone, then who, will be able to breakthrough to a major semifinal this year after Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray claimed 14 of the 16 slots and won all nine Masters. I’m looking most at Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but also David Ferrer (who seems to always be around) and Juan Martin Del Potro (though less so than many). I also wonder if Andy Roddick is due for a deep run.
The Olympic Games: I am huge fan of the Olympics and this year we get the tennis tournament at Wimbledon, and also mixed doubles added. Can Federer or Serena complete the Career Golden Slam? I can’t wait for London 2012.
Finally, I am going publish a list of lower ranked players I’m keeping my eye on. I’ve done similar things in years past with mixed results. Also this year I’m going to make a point of mentioning “risers” in the rankings that maybe fly under the radar of some.
ATP
-Robin Haase (NED)
-Gilles Muller (LUX)
-Cedric Marcel-Stebe (GER)
-Joao Souza (BRA)
-Vasek Pospisil (CAN)
WTA
-Ksenia Pervak (KAZ)
-Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU)
-Simona Halep (ROU)
-Marina Erakovic (NZL)
-Mona Barthel (GER)
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