Blog Future

I am sorry to say that my time updating this blog on a regular basis may be over.  I have enjoyed doing it but carving out time from my work and family in order to have a weekly recap post and then numerous posts throughout the majors is becoming more and more difficult.

I was hoping to get a Davis Cup preview post out, but some stuff came up yesterday and that didn't happen unfortunately, so that turned out to be the proverbial last straw in me trying to keep up with this blog regularly, especially since Davis Cup is one of my favorite parts of tennis.

The future of the blog remains somewhat in doubt for now I'm going to keep it active.  I plan to keep updating the 2014 champions and 2014 quarterfinalists pages and there's a decent chance I'll get the 2014 slam summaries up at some point in the next few weeks but I'm probably done with my regular recaps.  I may even do a few kind of statistical related posts now that a won't be devoting an hour or two every Sunday afternoon/evening to do the weekly recap.

If you are a regular, or even occasional, reader of this blog and there is something in particular you enjoy about it or one the pages on the sidebar I update, I would appreciate hearing from you via either comment or email.  It may help me decide what the future of this blog will be exactly.

So goodbye for now and thanks for reading.

Older Players and Retirement

It has seemed to me that we've had relatively few retirements over the past couple of years, which correlates nicely to the aging of the tour and/or lack of younger players.  This topic has been discussed at some message boards I frequent, but I went back looked at seeds for the '09 Aussie Open (5 years ago) to how many of those players have hung up the racquet.  One may theorize that in 5 years half of those players should have retired, give that 10 years is a rough amount of time a given player is playing tour-level events.

So first off, here is the list:
-Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Simon, Roddick, Del Potro
-Blake, Nalbandian, Ferrer, Monfils, Gonzalez, Verdasco, Wawrinka, Soderling
-Almagro, Andreev, Cilic, Berdych, Robredo, Stepanek, Fish, Gasquet
-Karlovic, Safin, Lopez, Mathieu, Tursunov, Schuettler, Melzer, Kohlschreiber

Of these players:
-23 (72%) are still playing on tour
-7 (22%) are retired: Roddick, Blake, Nalbandian, Gonzalez, Andreev, Safin, Schuettler
-2 (6%) are struggling with health issues and likely won't play again: Soderling, Fish

Of the men still on tour, 20 of 23 were seeds at the Aussie Open this year (or would have been had they been healthy).  The three unseeded were Stepanek, Karlovic, and Mathieu.  That number was surprising to me.

I would have expected more than 9 players to be retired/out of tennis 5 years later.  By my count, 17 of those 32 men are now over 30, so only half those over 30 have retired.  But most of the ones that are playing are still doing so at a high level.  So I guess my point is players are playing longer (though I admit I haven't compared this data to 2004 to 2009 for instance - a subject for another past perhaps) and that is helping to prevent younger players from coming up.  Also one incentive I haven't heard mentioned much is the money (which it always comes down to anyway).  With the growth of prize money, especially for first round slam losers, a players who wanders around the top 100 will collect a 6-figure paycheck for the 4 slams alone not to mention the smaller tournaments and sponsorships etc.  I don't know what coaches and physios and travel of course all add up to costing but I would venture it's easier for say the no. 80 ranked player to make a living at tennis now than even 5 years ago.

For comparison, 9 of the 32 women's '09 AO seeds are now retired plus Safina.  But only 14 of the 22 remaining players was seeded at this past AO.  So similar retirement results but the remaning women have not been nearly as consistent as the men.

Here are the women's '09 AO seeds:
-Jankovic, Serena, Safina, Dementieva, Ivanovic, Venus, Zvonareva, Kuznetsova
-Radwanska, Petrova, Wozniacki, Pennetta, Azarenka, Schnyder, Cornet, Bartoli
-Chakvetadze, Cibulkova, Hantuchova, Mauresmo, Medina Garrigues, Zheng, Szavay, Bammer
-Kanepi, Sugiyama, Kirilenko, Schiavone, Kleybanova, Wozniak, A.Bondarenko, Tanasugarn

French Open: Semifinals

We are down to the semifinals at the French Open, and three of the top 4 seeds remain in each singles draw.  Tsonga defeated Federer with surprising ease as I thought Federer was a near lock to reach the final.  In fact, all of the quarterfinals were brief, relatively straightforward affairs.  Serena and Sharapova were both pressed in their quarterfinals by Kuznetsova and Jankovic, who are clearly on the upswing in their careers while Azarenka and Errani endured tight 2 set matches.

Here are the semifinalists:

Men
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 19th major semifinal (5th at the FO), 9-9 record (1-3), 12th consecutive SF
3) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 20th major semifinal (8th at the FO), 16-3 record (7-0), last '12 French Open
4) David Ferrer (ESP) - 6th major semifinal (2nd at the FO), 0-5 record (0-1), 3rd consecutive SF
6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) - 5th major semifinal (1st at the FO), 1-3 record, last '12 Wimbledon

Women
1) Serena Williams (USA) - 23rd major semifinal (3rd at the FO), 19-3 record (1-1), last '12 US Open
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - 17th major semifinal (4th at the FO), 7-9 record (1-2), 3rd consecutive SF
3) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 6th major semifinal (1st at the FO), 3-2 record, 4th consecutive SF
5) Sara Errani (ITA) - 3rd major semifinal (2nd at the FO), 1-1 record (1-0), last '12 US Open

-Comparing collective major semifinal appearances, despite losing Federer the men just edge the women 50 to 49 (close!)
-Tsonga replaces Federer when looking back at the semifinalists last year.  Two of the women's semifinalists are the same - Sharapova and Errani, while Stosur and Kvitova have bowed out
-All of the women have lost a set but neither Ferrer nor Tsonga has lost one while Djokovic has lost one and Nadal two.
-Azarenka has now reached the semis at all four majors.
-Ferrer must win to assure himself of the no. 4 ranking following the French Open, otherwise Nadal would stay there if he wins the title.  Another win for Tsonga means he will take no. 6 from Berdych.  Djokovic will be no. 1 at least through Wimbledon.
-Sharapova must win title to stay at no. 2.  Errani's win means she stays at no. 5.  Serena has clinched no. 1 but the ranking could be up for grabs at Wimbledon.
-The winner of the Ferrer/Tsonga semifinal will be the first non-Big 4 member to reach a major final since Berdych at '10 Wimbledon.

So we get the Djokovic/Nadal semi we wanted and what is likely the de facto final.  Both semis are really hard to call at this point.  I would have tipped Djokovic until I saw the way Nadal took out Wawrinka.  I'm going to give Nadal just the slightest edge but this really should be an amazing match.  Both Ferrer and Tsonga come in on amazing form.  Tsonga just handed Federer his first pre-semi French Open loss since 2004 and Ferrer had won six sets 6-1 in the tournament.  My head says Ferrer but my gut says Tsonga in a match that could be equally entertaining.  If forced to pick, I'll go with an all-Spanish final.

Errani is good player but her win over Radwanska was her first over a top 5 player.  I don't expect a 1 and 2 beatdown and Errani has some variety that could bother Serena but I think the world no. 1 gets through fairly comfortably.  I like Azarenka to end Sharapova's French Open win streak as the Russian has impressed me much in the later rounds of this tournament while Azarenka has gotten better and better.  The first set bagel against Jankovic was disturbing.

And now a brief word on Federer.  I'm going to reserve full judgment until after Wimbledon but I think Roger has taken a step back this season.  The biggest difference is now losing half the time to players like Berdych, Tsonga, and Del Potro and while he can occasionally best Djokovic and Nadal it is rare especially that he is having trouble getting to them now.  He's still a top five and could yet more another major but it's going to be difficult and he's clearly a step below the top two and probably three in the world.

Looking forward to some great tennis tomorrow and especially Friday.  Au revoir!

Australian Open: Semifinals

After the surprising loss by Serena last night, the women's draw is wide open as American tennis has found a new female hero.  Federer also survived what could have been a similarly surprising loss by ousting Tsonga in 5 competitive sets.  I watched the last hour or so of the Serena match and my opinion is that while the injury hampered her for a few games and prevented her from competing much in the end of the 2nd set, she was playing well enough to win in the 3rd set, but Stephens took the match from her.  We'll never if a fully healthy Serena loses that match, but the injury alone didn't cause the loss.  She was up a break by the way in the 3rd set before Stephens closed it out with 3 straight games, 2 of them breaks.

Here are the last four in each draw:

Men
1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 18th major semifinal (4th at the AO), 8-9 record (3-0), 11th consecutive SF
2) Roger Federer (SUI) - 33rd major semifinal (10th at the AO), 24-8 record (5-4), last '12 Wimbledon
3) Andy Murray (GBR) - 12th major semifinal (4th at the AO), 5-6 record (2-1), 3rd consecutive SF
4) David Ferrer (ESP) - 5th major semifinal (2nd at the AO), 0-4 record (0-1), 2nd consecutive SF

Women
1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - 5th major semifinal (2nd at the AO), 2-2 record (1-0), 3rd consecutive SF
2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) - 16th major semifinal (6th at the AO), 7-8 record (3-2), 2nd consecutive SF
6) Na Li (CHN) - 4th major semifinal (3rd at the AO), 2-1 record (1-1), last '11 French Open
29) Sloane Stephens (USA) - 1st career major semifinal!

-Five of the 8 semifinalists are repeats from last year with Ferrer replacing Nadal on the men's side and Li and Stephens stepping in for Clijsters and Kvitova on the women's.
-Djokovic has clinched the no. 1 ranking, the only movement that can happen now in Ferrer getting to no. 3 if he defeats Federer in the final (like that's ever going to happen).
-Serena is still no. 1 in the virtual rankings, but if either Azarenka or Sharapova reach the final, whichever one of them goes farther will be no. 1 on Monday.
-The top 4 men's seeds hadn't all convened in the semis since the Aussie Open last year, but before that it happened 3 times in 4 majors ('11 French Open, '11 US Open, '12 Aussie Open).  Three of the top four men's seeds have been in the semis now for 8 straight majors, going back to the '11 Aussie Open when 5-Murray and 7-Ferrer spoiled the party.
-This is the first major to have the top 2 women's seeds in the semis since Wozniacki and Zvonareva at the '11 Aussie Open.
-The men have now combined to reach 68 semis as opposed to just 26 for the women, who had no chance to win that competition when Serena went out.

Murray is going to be tough for Federer to overcome after his 5-set match and Murray's tough draw.  Djokovic looked good after his 5-set match against Wawrinka and should be able to handle Ferrer, who is himself coming off a 5-set win over Almagro.

With Serena out, I expect Azarenka to make the final, though I do expect a decent fight from Stephens.  Li and Sharapova should have a great match and though at the beginning of the tournament I expected Li to more than Sharapova in Melbourne, I am now going to tip Sharapova due to her spectacular play early on.

Can Anyone Stop Djokovic?

2011 Indian Wells is history and we had the following finals:

Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-2

Caroline Wozniacki def. Marion Bartoli 6-1, 2-6, 6-3

Djokovic wins his 20th consecutive match, he is 18-0 this year plus his two Davis Cup final wins.  He has moved up officially to #2 in the world but he currently playing the best tennis of anyone having beaten Federer and Nadal in this tournament (more on Fed later).  It is his third title of the year and 21st of his career.  It is his 6th career Masters title (last was 2009 Paris) and his 2nd win at Indian Wells (2008).  He defeated Golubev, 31) Gulbis, 16) Troicki, 18) Gasquet, 2) Federer, and 1) Nadal in the tournament.  I think he has a good chance to push for world no. 1 later this year.

Wozniacki continues her hot streak at Premier events, particularly "Tier 1" events, the mandatory and 5 tournaments.  By my count it was her 5th consecutive Tier 1 championship (Rogers Cup, Tokyo, Beijing, Dubai, and now Indian Wells).  It is her 14th career title and 2nd of this year.  She is now winning the big tour events (outside the slams) with regularity and only seems to be a matter of time before she breaks through there.  She defeated Stephens, 28) Martinez Sanchez, 22) Kleybanova, 8) Azarenka, 16) Sharapova, and 15) Bartoli to win this title.  Also, my hat is off to Bartoli for taking advantage of Clijsters injury to march all the way to the final.

About Federer.  We keep hearing things from the media and have been been since 2008 about the "decline" and wanted to get my thoughts out there.  By listening to some people, you might think that Federer is washed up, will never win a tournament again, and should just retire.  That viewpoint is a total joke.  Federer in the 3rd best player on the planet, and you could even make the argument that he is 2nd best seeing that he beat Nadal the last time they met in a real match, but given Nadal's 2010 I say Federer is a clear #3.  At the moment, Djokovic and Nadal have surpassed him, but no one else, and he's still miles ahead of anyone else (except Murray only in Masters finals).  A while it is possible for him to get back to no. 1 or #2 in the future, I think he'll be at #3 for awhile.  And he's not going anywhere.  He's just past his peak, but he is still a very good tennis player.  He'll beat the players below him 95% of the time, he's still a major contender at the majors especially on fast surfaces and he still has a chance a beating a Nadal or a Djokovic every now and then.  I mean, he beat the Djoker at the Rogers Cup, Basel, and London last year before Novak raised his level at the AO and thereafter.  I think Federer will win another slam or more, and he will be a threat at every tournament he enters, but he's just no longer the prohibitive favorite.  Feel free to chime in on this in this comments.

Now, onto sunny Florida.  Can the Djoker pull off the double?  Can Caro make it 6 in a row?