Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Australian Open: Semifinals

So...about those almost guarantee finals matchups I proclaimed at the beginning of the tournament.  I guess we never know for sure what's going to happen.  What began with Ivanovic upsetting Serena continued with Wawrinka taking out Djokovic 9-7 in the 5th and then Azarenka was beaten by Radwanska, a player she has owned in the past.  And also, Fed's not dead yet, having come through Tsonga and Murray, but only to face his old nemesis Rafa, who by the way can be grateful to escape Dimitrov, where he had win 2 tiebreaks after dropping the first set.  And what of Serena's killer Ivanovic?  Well she lost to a Canadian teenager who's been rapidly ascending the rankings.  And all of sudden, the two-time Aussie Open finalist is the only women's major champion alive in the draw, and no one is talking about her.  So after all that drama, here are the remaining semifinalists:

Men
1) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 17th major semifinal (4th at the AO), 13-3 record (2-1), 2nd consecutive SF
6) Roger Federer (SUI) - 34th major semifinal (11th at the AO), 24-9 record (5-5), last '13 Aussie Open
7) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 4th major semifinal (1st at the AO), 1-2 record, last '12 US Open
8) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) - 2nd major semifinal (1st at the AO), 0-1 record, 2nd consecutive SF

-The men have now combined to reach 57 major semis
-Nadal, Federer, and Berdych each lost their first sets of the tournament in their quarterfinal matches. Wawrinka has now lost 3 after dropping 2 to Djokovic
-Berdych has now reached the semis at all 4 majors (each once)
-Federer is the only remaining semifinalist from last year's quartet.  Djokovic, Murray, and Ferrer (all QF losers) were the others.
-Murray will drop to no. 6 in the rankings (no. 7 if Federer beats Nadal), falling behind the Berdych/Wawrinka winner.  Federer will drop to no. 8 if loses to Nadal, will stay at no. 6 if he makes the final, and will return to no. 3 if wins the title.  The Berdych/Wawrinka winner will move past Murray and jump all the way to no. 3 if they win the title.

Both of the semi matchups could be good.  I think Nadal will beat Federer given their previous head-to-head although one could argue the Swiss is in better form.  I think Wawrinka will be able to carry his momentum from his Djokovic win into his first major final.

Matchups:
-Nadal vs Federer
-Berdych vs Wawrinka

Women
4) Na Li (CHN) - 6th major semifinal (4th at the AO), 3-2 record (2-1), 2nd consecutive SF
5) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - 3rd major semifinal (1st at the AO), 1-1 record, last '13 Wimbledon
20) Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) - 2nd major semifinal (1st at the AO), 0-1 record, last '09 French Open
30) Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) - 1st major semifinal

-The women have now combined to reach 12 major semis
-Li and Cibulkova have still only lost 1 set.  Bouchard has now lost 2 and Radwanska has dropped 3.
-Li is the only remaining semifinalist from last year's quartet.  Azarenka (QF), Sharapova and Stephens (R4) were the others.
-If Radwanska of Li win the title, they will be world no. 3.  If Li reaches the final, she passes Sharapova to get to no. 4.  Radwanska is currently no. 3 in the live rankings.  Cibulkova and Bouchard are up to nos. 17/19 in the live ranking

I have to like Radwanska and Li getting to the final but I've certainly been wrong before in this tournament.

Matchups:
-Li vs Bouchard
-Radwanska vs Cibulkova

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