Thursday, August 14, 2014

Cincinnati Quarterfinals

The first part of Cincinnati has been a exciting, similar to last week.  We have had a mix of top seeds advancing and upsets, but there have been plenty of great matches with a multitude of 3rd set tiebreaks.  Djokovic has been eliminated from the tournament prior to the quarterfinals again which leaves doubts as to his motivation and/or his form heading into the US Open.  Bouchard was eliminated in her opening match for the second consecutive tournament, leaving us to wonder if she can handle being a top 10 player.  We'll see if the slump continues in New York.  Five of the top 8 seeds each draw remain and each has a can't miss quarterfinal.  The Americans haven't done nearly as well as the Rogers Cup with only Serena remaining.

Here are the quarterfinalists with some additional notes:

Men

2) Roger Federer (SUI)
3) Stan Wawrinka (SUI)
5) Milos Raonic (CAN)
6) David Ferrer (ESP)
8) Andy Murray (GBR)
15) Fabio Fognini (ITA)
16) Tommy Robredo (ESP)
Julien Benneteau (FRA)

-Robredo is the only man remaining in the draw who hasn't lost a set, which is especially remarkable because he beat Sock, Querrey, and Djokovic to get here
-Only six countries are represented with two Swiss and two Spaniards
-Everyone remaining in the draw has been to multiple Masters quarters except Fognini; this is his 2nd ('13 Monte Carlo)
-Federer, Ferrer, Raonic, and Murray were all in the quarters in Toronto last week
-Federer and Murray are the only man remaining in the draw who also made the quarters last year.  Those from the ’13 quarters who have been eliminated:  Nadal (w/d), Isner (R3 l. to Murray), Berdych (R2 l. to Lu), Del Potro (injured), Djokovic (R3 l. to Robredo), and Tursunov (did not play)
-Isner not getting back to the final cost him over 500 points but only 1 ranking spot unless Fognini or Robredo their next match.  Benneteau is up to no. 34.  Federer is now within 4000 points of Nadal.

This tournament, Federer does not have the nice draw before him that he had in Toronto as he could meet Murray or Raonic.  I'm not the Canadian is capable of beating him at this point but the Brit certainly is.  Actually Murray is probably my pick to win the tournament right now.  The top half is very open and an opportunity for Wawrinka to seize the momentum.  Somehow I don't think he will and we'll see a red hot Robredo or Ferrer in the final.

Quarterfinal Matchups:

Ferrer vs Robredo
Wawrinka vs Benneteau
Raonic vs Fognini
Federer vs Murray

American Play: 6-6 and it could have been better if not for 2 men: Robredo and Raonic.  The former took out Sock and Querrey and the latter beat Ginepri and Johnson.  Isner and Johnson both lost today in the 3rd set tiebreaks, Isner to Murray and there's no shame in that.  The other American in the draw was 23-yr-old qualifier Buchanan from nearby Columbus, playing his 2nd main draw match, a loss to Sousa in a 3rd set tiebreak.  Querrey got by Falla in R1, Johnson upset 9-Gulbis in R2, and Ginepri ousted Thiem.

3rd Set Tiebreaks: Plenty of them - Verdasco def. Granollers 7-5 R1, Benneteau def. l-Rola 9-7 R1, 15-Fognini def. Roger-Vasselin 7-5 R1, Sousa def. q-Buchanan 7-4 R1, Pospisil def. Stepanek 7-4 R1, 6-Ferrer def. Kohlschreiber 7-4 R2 (3 tiebreaks), 5-Raonic def. Johnson 7-4 R3, 8-Murray def. 11-Isner 7-2 R3

Women

1) Serena Williams (USA)
2) Simona Halep (ROU)
4) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
5) Maria Sharapova (RUS)
8) Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
9) Ana Ivanovic (SRB)
12) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Elina Svitolina (UKR)

-Five of the women remaining in the draw (Serena, Halep, Radwanska, Jankovic, and Wozniacki) have yet to lose a set.  Sharapova, Ivanovic, and Svitolina have each only lost one.
-It is the first Tier I quarterfinal for Svitolina, who eliminated Kvitova, though she did make the 4th round in Miami this year
-Serena, Radwanska, and Wozniacki were also in the Montreal quarters
-Five women also return to the quarters after make it there last year: Serena, Halep, Radwanska, Jankovic, and Wozniacki.  The 3 from last year who didn't are Azarenka (w/d), Li (w/d), and Vinci (R1 l. to Lisicki)
-There has been very little movement in the rankings with the top 9 unchanged.  Svitolina is up to no. 34 in the rankings
-Halep is beginning to close in on Serena, trailing by just 1800 points, and of course the American is defending champion at the US Open.  Grant it injuries to Li, Azarenka, and Sharapova have played a role in the rise of the Romanian.

Despite Serena's loss last week to Venus, she remains the prohibitive favorite in this event, although intriguing await.  Jankovic has often taken sets from Serena and Wozniacki came within a handful of games of beating her in Montreal.  I would like to see a Serena/Halep matchup, which is certainly feasible.  Halep doesn't lose very often and Sharapova's form hasn't been great since winning the French Open.  Ivanovic is the dark horse remaining in this tournament.

Quarterfinal Matchups:

Serena vs Jankovic
Radwanska vs Wozniacki
Ivanovic vs Svitolina
Halep vs Sharapova

American Play: 7-8, a far cry from last week in Canada, though a few good things happened here.  Serena accounts for 2 of the wins as did Stephens, a good sign, beating Petkovic and Zahlavova Strycova before losing to Jankovic.  The other players getting wins were Keys (over Cornet), McHale (over q-Gibbs), and q-Townsend (over Koukalova), who is rapidly rising.  They lost to 5-Sharapova (won a set), 9-Ivanovic, and 13-Pennetta.  First round losers were Davis, q-Lepchenko, q-Gibbs, and Venus (to 16-Safarova).

3rd Set Tiebreaks: 14-Errani def. q-Wickmayer 7-2 R1, Lisicki def. 14-Errani 7-2 R2

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