Friday, August 8, 2014

Rogers Cup Quarterfinals

It’s been an exciting first half of the Rogers Cup tournaments in Canada.  There have been several 3rd set tiebreaks and a few of the top players going out.  Five of the top 8 seeds remain in the men’s draw but Djokovic, after struggling through a 3rd set tiebreak win over Monfils was blown out by Tsonga, removing the men’s “favorite” from the equation.  Also Berdych and Wawrinka are gone.  On the women’s side, only 3 top 8 seeds are left, with 4 of them (Sharapova, Kvitova, Kerber, and Jankovic) leaving yesterday but the biggest surprise was Bouchard flaming out big time in front of her home crowd against a qualifier, being bageled twice.  Also Kvitova and Jankovic were sent packing yesterday.  There was some good news on the American front with qualifier Vandeweghe beating Ivanovic and Jankovic to continue to steady improvement.

Here are the quarterfinalists with some additional notes:

Men

2) Roger Federer (SUI)
5) David Ferrer (ESP)
6) Milos Raonic (CAN)
7) Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)
8) Andy Murray (GBR)
13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Kevin Anderson (RSA)
Feliciano Lopez (ESP)

-Only Tsonga and Murray have yet to lose a set but Murray has played just one match after Gasquet gave him a walkover
-Despite Nadal being out and this being on hard courts, the Spanish are back to their old tricks being the only country with more than one more remaining in the draw
-Everyone remaining in the draw has been to multiple Masters quarters.
-Raonic is the only man remaining in the draw who also made the quarters last year.  Those from the ’13 quarters who have been eliminated:  Nadal (w/d), Djokovic (R3 l. to Tsonga), Pospisil (R1 l. to Gasquet), Gulbis (R2 l. to Benneteau), Gasquet (R3 w/d), Davydenko and Matosevic (both not in main draw)
-Federer has solidified his no. 3 ranking, Anderson is up to no. 16 so should get a top 16 US Open seed and Lopez is up to no. 21.  Pospisil has fallen down to no. 46.

The draw is opening up for the now 33-yr-old Federer although a SF matchup with Raonic would be scintillating.  The Big 4’s stranglehold on Masters is dangling by a thread with Murray’s form (and playing the suddenly on fire Tsonga next) and Federer often inconsistent.  At this point I will say Federer/Raonic would be the de facto final and based on Raonic’s struggles I have to go with the Swiss.

Quarterfinal Matchups:

Murray vs Tsonga
Dimitrov vs Anderson
Raonic vs Lopez
Federer vs Ferrer

American Play: 4-5, which is really good if you wash Isner from your mind.  He lost to Dodig in 3 sets but all 4 other Americans won matches.  Sock got a wildcard and beat Melzer before losing to Raonic in a 3rd set tiebreak.  Young beat Dancevic and lost to Dimitrov in 3 sets.  Smyczek qualified and beat Kamke, the fell to Lopez.  And old Russell qualified and upset Mahut before losing to Ferrer.

3rd Set Tiebreaks: Karlovic def. q-Tomic (8-6) R1, 1-Djokovic def. Monfils (7-2) R2, 3-Wawrinka def. Paire (7-2) R2, 6-Raonic def. Sock (7-4) R2, Dodig def. Seppi (7-5) R2, 15-Cilic def. l-Jaziri (7-4) R2

Another notable result was Kyrgios getting his first Masters win over Giraldo, but then he won just 4 games against Murry.

Women

1) Serena Williams (USA)
3) Agnieszka Radawnska (POL)
8) Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
11) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
14) Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP)
Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
Venus Williams (USA)
Q) Coco Vandeweghe (USA)

-Only Serena and Wozniacki have yet to lose a set
-The Americans backed up their nice Stanford results by getting 3 women through the quarters, being the only country with more than one
-Everyone remaining in the draw has been to a least one Tier I quarter.  (Vandeweghe made the Tokyo quarters when she was very young.)
-Serena and Radwanska are the only women remaining from those who reached the ’13 quarters.  Those from the ’13 quarters who have been eliminated:  Cirstea-surprise finalist (R1 l. to Safarova), Li (w/d), Kvitova (R3 l. to Makarova), Cibulkova (R2 l. to Watson), Errani (R1 l. to Lisicki), Rybarikova (R2 l. to Safarova)
-Despite both players not playing here, Halep has moved past Li to world no. 2 and with Kvitova out of this tournament, the Romanian will most likely be at the bottom of the US Open draw.  There hasn’t been a lot of other movement.  Venus is up to no. 22 and Vandeweghe to no. 38.  Cirstea has fallen all the way down to no. 80.

It is good to see the trio of Radwanska, Azarenka, and Wozniacki back and playing well at the same time, especially with Dane’s resurgence.  That said, this is still Serena’s tournament to lose.  A potential sister struggle looms in the semis unless Wozniacki or Suarez Navarro blocks their path.  An intriguing match between Radwanska and Azarenka is likely a de facto semi and will show us how far Azarenka is really back.  But keep an eye on Vandeweghe whose breakout summer continues.

Quarterfinal Matchups:

Serena vs Wozniacki
Suarez Navarro vs Venus
Radwanska vs Azarenka
Makarova vs Vandeweghe

American Play: 12-5, which is very good even if you discount the 5 wins of the Williams sisters.  Serena took out Stosur and Safarova.  Venus has beaten Pavlyuchenkova, Putintseva (who upset Pennetta), and Kerber.  Vandeweghe saw off Zhang, Ivanovic, and Jankovic, all after qualifying.  Rogers qualified, beat Tomljanovic and then stunned Bouchard before winning just 1 game against Wozniacki.  Keys and Stephens each won a match.  Stephens was beaten Jankovic in a 3rd set tiebreak, Keys by Lisicki.  Riske (she’s had a poor summer) and q-Davis lost opening round matches.


3rd Set Tiebreaks: l-Vesnina def. Giorgi (7-1) R1, Watson def. 10-Cibulkova (7-5) R2, 7-Jankovic def. Stephens (7-4) R2

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