Rogers Cup/Cincinnati Preview

The US Open Series is about to begin in earnest with the Rogers Cup in Canada and Cincinnati in the US.  Most of the big names return to action, some having not played since Wimbledon, and we will glimpse who will be the favorites and dark horses in New York.  Notable news this week, though, was both world no. 2s will miss these events.  Li has also pulled out of the US Open itself while Nadal is still holding out hope of playing.  This is especially notable in his case because was the defending in all 3 tournaments and now has basically gifted the year-end world no. 1 to Djokovic (although Djokovic is defending lots of points after the US Open).

So here are those defending the big points over the next 2 weeks, with my preview following:

Rogers Cup
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Milos Raonic (CAN)
Women - Serena Williams (USA) def. Sorana Cirstea (ROU)
Semifinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), Vasek Pospisil (CAN), Na Li (CHN), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Quarterfinalists - Ernests Gulbis (LAT), Richard Gasquet (FRA), Nikolay Davydenko (RUS), Marinko Matosevic (AUS), Petra Kvitova (CZE), Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), Sara Errani (ITA), Magdalena Rybarikova (SVK)

Cincinnati
Men - Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. John Isner (USA)
Women - Victoria Azarenka (BLR) def. Serena Williams (USA)
Semifinalists - Tomas Berdych (CZE), Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), Na Li (CHN), Jelena Jankovic (SRB)
Quarterfinalists - Novak Djokovic (SRB), Roger Federer (SUI), Andy Murray (GBR), Dmitry Tursunov (RUS), Simona Halep (ROU), Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), Roberta Vinci (ITA)

Players reaching the quarters at both tournaments last year
-Nadal (W/W)
-Serena (W/F)
-Li (SF/SF)
-Djokovic (SF/QF)
-Radwanska (SF/QF)

Surprise players going to deep last year that I feel would have little chance of defending their points are Davydenko, Tursunov, and Matosevic for the men and really only Rybarikova for the women.  Pospisil is unlikely to get back to the semis but he has turned his season around lately.  The same could be said for Vinci and her QF in Cincinnati.
-Nadal beat the two local boys, Raonic and Isner, in the finals last year.  It is feasible to see Raonic returning to the Rogers Cup final but Isner would be a bit of reach, though it's hard to count out his serve.
-While Nadal is unable to defending his two titles, Li was no slouch last year, reaching the semis of both events.

With Nadal out, Djokovic immediately becomes the favorite, especially with the question marks surrounding Murray.  But the chances of Djokovic parlaying Nadal's absence into two titles here is unlikely and may not even want to play that much.  And last year Nadal was the first person win in both Canada and Cincinnati since Roddick in '03.  Young guns Raonic (esp. in Toronto), Dimitrov, and even Gulbis are candidates to perhaps break the Big 4's stranglehold but I would also look to Federer in the 3-set format esp. in Cincinnati (he is a 5-time champion) as he been able to beat Djokovic in similar tournaments recently.  Murray could do wonders for his confidence with a win at either event but somehow I don't think that's happening.

Serena has been by far the best player on the regular tour but has stumbled magnificently at the majors.  She should be good to win one or both of these events, as she did last year.  But I do think Serena will lose a match here or there, especially after she's already reached the Stanford final.  With Li out and Azarenka still out of form after her long injury layoff, who can seize the moment.  In Montreal it could be the local girl Bouchard.  It also could be Radwanska or Halep or Sharapova, or it could be an unknown player.  Could it be a young American in Cincinnati?  There's really so many question marks on the WTA, that if Serena doesn't win we'll have an unpredictable event.  This is the opportunity for Halep and Bouchard to cement their rising, and for Radwanska and Sharapova to add another trophy.