ATP World Tour Finals Preview

The ATP World Tour Finals in London begin this Sunday with more new faces than usual, and really only 4 of the group of 6 to 8 that has owned the top 10 of men's tennis for several years.  But when it gets down to it, one would be surprised if one of the usual suspects didn't win the tournament.  Can any of the newcomers pull an upset and win an event dominated recently by Federer and Djokovic?  Here are the facts on the 8 participants:

1) Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 10,010 pts - 57-8 with 6 titles including Wimbledon - 8th appearance ('07-'13), 19-9 record, best result '08,'12,'13 champion

2) Roger Federer (SUI) - 8700 pts - 68-11 with 5 titles - 13th appearance ('02-'13), 44-11 record, best result '03,'04,'06,'07,'10,'11 champion

3) Rafael Nadal (ESP) - 6835 pts - injured, withdrew

4) Stan Wawrinka (SUI) - 4895 pts - 36-15 with 3 titles including the Aussie Open - 2nd appearance ('13), 2-2 record, best result '13 semis

5) Kei Nishikori (JPN) - 4625 pts - 52-12 with 4 titles - 1st appearance

6) Andy Murray (GBR) - 4475 pts - 58-18 with 3 titles - 6th appearance ('08-'12), 9-7 record, best result '08,'10,'12 semis

7) Tomas Berdych (CZE) - 4465 pts - 54-20 with 2 titles - 5th appearance ('10-'13), 5-8 record, best result '11 semis

8) Milos Raonic (CAN) - 4440 pts - 49-18 with 1 title - 1st appearance

9) Marin Cilic (CRO) - 4150 pts - 54-18 with 4 titles including the US Open - 1st appearance

-Ferrer and Lopez (?) are the alternates
-The 8 contestants hail from 8 different countries. Nishikori and Raonic are the first from their countries to qualify.
-The '13 contestants were Djokovic (W), Nadal (F), Federer and Wawrinka (SF), Berdych, Del Potro, Ferrer, and Gasquet
-Only Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka, and Berdych made it both this year and last. Nadal and Murray qualified but were injured one of the two years.

Groups:
A - Djokovic, Wawrinka, Berdych, Cilic
B - Federer, Nishikori, Murray, Raonic

Both groups have dangerous candidates but one could argue Djokovic's matchups are easier than Federer's as the Swiss has lost to Murray several times, Nishikori a couple times, and just lost to Raonic (albeit for the first time) in Paris.  Djokovic owns Berdych and Cilic, and also Wawrinka until recently.  Wawrinka is not in great form so I think Djokovic will advance from his group easily.  Berdych is probably the most likely player to finish second in the group given the question marks about Cilic's health and Wawrinka's form.  Federer should be able to advance from the group but it is possible he loses a match.  I think he beats Murray but could fall to one of the others.  I doubt anyone goes undefeated so this group could get a little crazy.  I'm going to go with Murray advancing, somehow able to find his form in front of the home crowd.  He's played fairly well recently but hasn't been able to knock off many top players other than Ferrer (several times).

I'm going to with the safe pick of Djokovic vs Federer in the final.  The biggest obstacle to this is if Federer finishes second in his group and would then meet the Djoker in the semis.  I like Djokovic in this final because I don't have much confidence in Federer anymore in the biggest matches and the Serb is in fine form (although the same could be said of Shanghai so I won't count the Swiss out).

Finally, Djokovic needs just one win or one Federer loss to wrap up the year end no. 1 ranking.